Canada is flirting with joining the European Union, though they are more likely to just join the European Economic Area in my opinion. I think this is an excellent step forward, and while the catalyst is Donald Trump, this is similar to the catalyst which formed the European Union.
Historical context
In order to understand why the expansion of free travel across continents is happening now, one must understand history.
The European Union of course is the latest step in a long evolution of relationships which started arguably with the Roman Empire. During the Middle Ages there were other forms of c0mplex European alliances, such as the Holy Roman Empire, the Hanaseatic League, and more. Alliances are nothing new, Portugal and England have the oldest alliance in history, starting in 1373. This was preceded by Ye Auld Alliance between France and Scotland from 1295, which arguably lasted until 1560, though this is debated.
Using Old Maps Online, it quickly becomes apparent why the oldest alliances are based in Europe. The Americas had developed trade networks between the various peoples inhabiting the continent. Some of these empires grew in size, and the longest lasting was of course the Mayan empire, lasting over 1400 years. You also had organizations like the Iroquois in modern-day Quebec and the northeastern United States. The political structure of these is vast and complicated. However, one should not interpret the borders of the Americas before 1500 as empires the same way we do for Europe, but more as cultural spheres, as explained in detail in this post on Reddit. Australia was in a similar organization.
Africa had a few major empires which came and went, particularly Mali, Ethiopia, and Bomu, but most of the continent remained unorganized from a political standpoint until European colonization. The lack of political organization makes it easy to understand why Europeans had a relatively easy time invading the continent with their large organized armies versus disorganized and extremely diverse people with many different levels of political organization. It makes sense why Ethiopia was the last to be colonized, and relatively briefly.
There were complex empires across Eurasia however which evolved into complex relationships after the fall of the Western Roman Empire. Empires dominated most of the areas of Eurasia which are not subarctic for over 2000 years, allowing for a unique level of political evolution and consolidation of power.
Asia was dominated by a unified China in the east and many different states coming and going in India and Indochina over thousands of years. The Buddhist sphere of influence was deeply disrupted by colonialism in the 1800s.
On top of this, a globally interconnected world only really emerged in the 19th century after the invention of the telephone. The rapid spread of information from millions of sources is only in the last few decades. We can now get opinions on events from anyone in the world with an internet connection, with less of a need for gatekeepers. It’s a very different world today, leading to questions about borders.
The reason why the future of global integration is likely to stem out of the European Union is colonialism. Europe has simply had more time to evolve these institutions compared to the rest of the world. Latin America was very unstable until the last 50 years with the rise of democracy in the region, and we have seen immense steps towards regional integration in the region following democratization, with Mercosur (1991), the Andean Community (2007), and Central America-4 Border Control Agreement (2006) being formed across the region.
From https://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity1.htm
Since the end of the Cold War, the number of democracies in the world has soared as the number of autocracies has plummeted. With this we finally have a world where there are clear reasons to expand travel and trade beyond continental boundaries.
The current situation
A lot of countries are going backwards in my opinion with the implementation of visas which will slow down this evolution, but I doubt these will last forever. At some point the policies pushed by these protectionists will show their major downsides and people will choose another path. We are starting to see evidence that European tech is unable to compete given massively increasing regulation without considering its impacts. This is coming through with a wave of protectionist policies from the last decade.
As the negative consequences of these regulations become more and more clear, there will be a reversal and damaging policies will have to be reversed in time to avoid economic destruction.
I think Donald Trump is sowing the seeds of his own destruction as his policies cause economic damage. This will cause people to see the damage that mercantilism does to the economy, and the system will self-correct as long as democracy prevails.
The question then becomes who are we going to have to replace the current trend of closing borders? This is where Canada’s discussion with the European Union is critical to the future of the world.
First of all, I do not see Canada joining the European Union.
I view integration in stages.
Stage 0 is a lack of free travel, so any form, fee, or other legal barrier to tourism is a stage of non-integration.
- Visa-free travel, no eVisas, “Electronic travel authorizations” or any other form of pre-clearance or fees will be paid for tourism.
- Free trade agreement. Some restrictions remain, borders still have customs. ASEAN, NAFTA.
- Streamlined immigration process, such as between the United States and Canada for knowledge workers.
- Free movement of goods. European Union Customs Union.
- Free movement of people. Trans-Tasman Agreement for example. Free movement of goods included.
- Single market. European Economic Area. This combines the free movement of people and goods with an open border.
- Monetary Union. CFA Franc. Does not include a Single Market.
- Political and Economic Union. European Union is the only true example. Includes open borders, a monetary union, and a single market.
There are pros and cons to each of these stages.
Visa-free travel does not have the advantages of freedom to live and work in another country. The increased labor friction slows down economic growth.
Free trade agreements do not eliminate all tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This increases prices for consumers compared to deeper integration.
Streamlined immigration processes still restrict immigration for many purposes. They tend to only be for professionals, so you still won’t be capturing the full human rights benefit of freedom of movement.
Free movement of goods does not give you the benefits of labor market flexibility.
Free movement of people always includes a free trade agreement, and customs checks still exist.
Single markets have few downsides. They can include unified regulations for goods and services which can be sold in the bloc. They have a fully open border without customs checks in normal circumstances. As long as the regulations are limited to the necessary rules in order to maintain smooth trade between countries this hits the sweet spot. The powers of the organizing body of the single market are limited to core functions, but the open borders puts heavy pressure on countries to adopt best practices. I believe an open border with free movement of people is the ideal level of integration to defend democracy. The world’s single market regions today look like this:
Monetary unions start to introduce significant downsides which I have already explored.
Political and Economic Unions take the downsides of monetary unions and extend them to all levels of policy. Often they include the ability for countries to block policies and use them for political leverage. These sorts of unions can easily get to a point where they can’t grow beyond a certain level. The European Union is the only true political union in the world today.
The future
What will the future hold?
It’s easy to imagine a world where we go backwards. It’s the world we had in the interwar period of the 20th century. More countries leave the European Union, Mercosur is disbanded along with other open border agreements. Visas become necessary for crossing any border. eVisas are turned into visits to the embassy. Free trade agreements shredded.
But we have already been there, and we know where it led us.
Moving forward, there are more free and democratic countries today than ever before. As I wrote above, I think the first step is abolishing all forms of visas between democracies. Without this first step, I do not see how we can realistically proceed further.
I do not think deeper political unions are the answer. It makes the temptation to capture the government of a political union too tempting, and too easy. We want to keep local control, while extending freedom of movement.
The first step is the creation of free trade areas between free and democratic countries. The European Union already has treaties in force with every non-Anglo wealthy democracy in the world. They are currently negotiating treaties with lots of regions globally. As these free trade agreements continue to come into force, only the United States, Australia, and Malaysia will be left as the only developed democratic countries with over a million people without a free trade agreement with the European Union. Australia is currently negotiating their agreement however.
As these free trade agreements are finalized, the next step is for them to rollback the implementation of eVisas between democratic countries and the European Union.
Once this is completed, the next step is for countries to start discussing more open border treaties.
There are only a handful of borders between countries which pass every World Governance Indicator with a score greater than 0 which are closed. These are between Andorra and France and Spain, Namibia and Botswana, the United States and Canada, and between the UK and Cyprus and Spain. This is easily fixed by adding Andorra to the Schengen Area, turning the Southern African Customs Union into an open border treaty, the US and Canada signing an open border treaty, and the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union and then joining the Schengen Area with Ireland.
The world’s open border treaties will then look like this:
This however has one problem. I think it is more likely that Canada will join the Schengen Area first, and Greenland will then as well.
There is no real reason for Canada not to talk with the European Union, complete their free trade agreement, and then move towards freedom of movement. It will be mutually beneficial and very popular once implemented. Brexit took years of social engineering with near unanimous consent in the British media to pass, and as soon as withdrawal was completed its popularity plummeted. I do not believe this will be repeated. Once Canada is in Schengen it will be a permanent member.
I think this will lead to further developments. Assuming ceterus paribus in regards to regime change, which I know is a horrible assumption, but bear with me here, I think the Andean Community and Mercosur will merge.
Andorra is negotiating an agreement with the Schengen Area now, and Cyprus will join by the end of the year.
I believe the United Kingdom will rejoin the European Union first, leading to a merger of the Common Travel Area into the Schengen Area.
Now regarding the US and Canadian border, if the United States elects a Democratic government and we fix our relations with the rest of the world, having Canada in the Schengen Area already will be of immense value to us in the long run. After the United States fixes our relationship with Canada and the European Union, joining the Schengen Area will ensure that if we elect another president like Donald Trump that it will be far more difficult for them to undo the progress made once freedom of movement is in place. It is to our social and economic benefit, as well as those of our allies to be part of such an arrangement.
That will lead to an open border treaty including both sides of the Atlantic. It will be the first intercontinental international open border in history, and I believe an important step forward towards a more prosperous and peaceful world.
The next two countries to add to this international arrangement are Australia and New Zealand, as the wealthiest democratic countries outside of Europe and North America. Once Schengen is trans-continental, it will not be that radical to ask why Australia and New Zealand should be excluded.
The only other wealthy democratic countries which pass every metric in the World Governance Indicators and are not already in a free travel area are Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
In the very long run I see Caricom and South America growing closer ties to this Schengen Area. Caricom will be the first to establish freedom of movement, and South America in the far distant future. Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay are the only South American countries which pass every World Governance Indicator. But this will change as more countries in South America develop politically and economically.
The Andean Community will merge with Mercosur.
Chile will then have a choice, either join freedom of movement with Schengen or with Mercosur. Chilean citizens already have freedom of movement with the rest of Union of South American Nations, so they might as well form an open border regime with their neighbors.
This brings us to our most probable future for open border regimes in the world. Schengen will become a multicontinental treaty, spreading across North America, East Asia, and Oceania. USAN will become a free travel area with a unified visa policy. This will likely take around 50 years, but assuming democratic backsliding remains rare, I think this is the future we have to look forward to.
As long as we work to make it happen.
