Hamas is not Palestine

The US vetoed the resolution to grant Palestine UN membership yesterday, and in response, the Israeli occupation minister said:

“The proposal to recognize a Palestinian state, more than 6 months after the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and after the sexual crimes and other atrocities committed by Hamas terrorists was a reward for terrorism”

The United Sates claims resolutions from the UN will not create statehood for Palestine, but give no path to statehood for Palestine.

They claim it relies on negotiations by Israel and Palestine, like the ones which the United States negotiated in 1993?

There are many problems with claiming that granting Palestinian statehood is a reward for Hamas. Granting Palestine statehood does not give Hamas any legal recognition, only the Palestinian Authority, and contrary to Hamas’ wishes gives the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas.

Hamas is not an ally of the Palestinian Authority. It couldn’t be more clear.

We claim that the Israelis and Palestinians must reach an agreement but do not outline an agreement that would be approved by America.

The Israelis and Palestinians did come to such an agreement. In response, their Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated, and Benjamin Netanyahu has been in charge of the country ever since. As long as he has remained in de facto control of the country, he has blocked all possibility of peace for almost 30 years.

Fishy, right?

I’m surprised Netanyahu has not pardoned Yigal Amir for his services in preventing a Palestinian Peace Process and giving Netanyahu 30 years of almost complete control of government.

The Two State Solution is a sham until Palestine is given UN membership.

Israelis don’t even have the excuse of fraudulent elections; their elections are legitimate. The War in Gaza is what Israelis have voted for for 30 years.

We must stop bailing them out. The ship is sinking under Netanyahu’s leadership. Without US support, Israel will collapse, and as long as we support them, Netanyahu will only make it worse.

The best course of action is to stop providing military aid to Israel and force them to come to a diplomatic solution.

Without citizenship in a UN member state and without the PNA having enough legitimacy and control of their territory as outlined by treaties Israel has signed, what course of action do Palestinians have to be heard in the world? What option do they have? Netanyahu has given them no other option.

The United States needs to recognize Palestine and force them to come to a peace agreement.

Consider other perspectives, but don’t forget history

Let me be clear: I like Bernie Sanders in general. I voted for him over Hillary Clinton, and if I could have ranked my ballot, I would have put him as my second choice in 2024 after Elizabeth Warren. I agree with the results of his decision to support Ukraine and push for a two-state solution in Israel regardless of whether Bibi supports it or not, and he never has and never will.

But I fundamentally disagree with how Bernie Sanders got to his conclusion to support Ukraine. This is mostly in response to claims he made in this article by The Nation. I recommend reading it.

Bernie Sanders says the following:

I know it is not very popular in Washington to consider the perspectives of our adversaries, but I think it is important in formulating good policy.
One of the precipitating factors of this crisis, at least from Russia’s perspective, is the prospect of an enhanced security relationship between Ukraine and the United States and Western Europe, including what Russia sees as the threat of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO), a military alliance originally created in 1949 to confront the Soviet Union.

He references former defense secretary William Perry, who was the Secretary of Defense under Bill Clinton.

In the last few years, most of the blame can be pointed at the actions that Putin has taken. But in the early years I have to say that the United States deserves much of the blame. Our first action that really set us off in a bad direction was when NATO started to expand, bringing in eastern European nations, some of them bordering Russia.

I disagree with his choice of words here, and William Perry is simply wrong about the reasons why countries wanted to join NATO as soon as they could in the 1990s and 2000s. Both officials forget what happened between 1945 and 1949.

I have already written out the history of why NATO exists in my article But Why NATO?, which outlines how the Soviet Union, through fraudulent elections, coups, and invasions, conquered Eastern Europe.

One cannot understand the reason why NATO exists without fully recognizing the reason why NATO exists.

This is where Bernie Sanders and the rest of the American political elite get history wrong. Ukraine is no more part of Russia than East Germany. Russia has no right to Ukraine. Russia has no right to Chechnya. Russia has no right to Georgia.

Joining NATO is a choice made by sovereign states. Joining the Warsaw Pact was done by gunpoint.

The two could not possibly be more different.

Bernie needs to get his telling of history right.

Cause of inflation

When people claim inflation is caused solely by greed, as if that’s something new…

They need to go back to the Solow model.

First of all, it implies that companies were not profit maximizing before 2020 and have bursts of generosity. So the leftist take is that companies are sometimes charitable and not greedy in our capitalist system? Interesting.

Let’s look at this in the short run.

Then, if people wanting to make more money is not the cause of inflation because that doesn’t go up and down with volatility, what does theory say? It’s supply and demand. Aggregate demand and aggregate supply work together to change prices. Change of prices is all inflation is.

To those who are saying how it is just money supply, well, they are wrong. If they were right we would see a 1 to 1 correlation between money supply and inflation. Problem is… we just don’t see that in the REAL WORLD (TM). Money supply can indirectly influence the aggregate supply curve in the money market with how the money market interacts with the IS (investment-saving) market, which includes the stock market and all investments in the economy, eg bonds, private equity, grandmothers helping grandchildren buy houses, etc. Money supply and money demand (the LM market) impact interest rates together with the IS market where the interest rate and GDP intercept changes the GDP of the economy. So money supply is one input in a good equation to predict GDP, not price level. Price level is also an input in determining your money market, which is based on real money supply. It cannot be both an input and an output. Math doesn’t work that way.

Put GDP into your aggregate demand and aggregate supply chart, and now you find your output is your price level. Change of price level is inflation.

So yeah, inflation is not caused by money printer go brrrrr, neither is it simply because people become more and less greedy over the short run. The short answer is aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The long answer is the Solow-Swan, or even better the Mankiw-Romer-Wile model.

If we look at the long run the model is different because it readjusts and in the long run money does not make an impact on GDP because the economy readjusts, but it does have an impact over the short run.

The Republican border plan

https://apnews.com/article/congress-border-security-ukraine-a39e188fa2c6a563203d2c69eaabdc6d

“In a dramatic turnaround, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell recommended to GOP senators in a closed-door meeting that they vote against the first procedural vote Wednesday, according to two people familiar with the meeting who were not authorized to talk publicly about it and spoke anonymously.”

Back in February, there was a chance the Republicans could have added additional funding to border patrol and ICE to the bill sending military aid to Ukraine and Gaza, and yes, Mitch McConnell decided not to push it forward.

This would have given the Republicans in the House what they are calling for and enabled swift passage of the House, and it was not Democrats who blocked it, but the Senate minority leader.

Giving more support to agents to process migrants trying to go to the United States would make Biden look good, sending aid to Ukraine would hurt Putin, and both of these hurt the Republican Party.

The Republican border plan is basically to build more walls, which is ineffective, and send more people back to their homes, which is inhumane.

This is designed ultimately to make Biden look like a weak president, as Biden has refused to send the $4.4 billion in aid he can already send Ukraine, but Biden is worried sending that would prevent the further $60 billion in the bill stalled in Congress.

So here we have it. Republicans have given Putin a massive gift by refusing to give Ukraine enough aid that could end the war. They claim they want border security added to the bill, but when they had an opportunity to buff up customs and border enforcement, Mitch McConnell decided not to.

Biden could have done more when he had a trifecta in 2022 when the war began. So far, the United States has sent over $40 billion in aid to Ukraine, and this was enough to push Russia out of Northern Ukraine, but they need more aid to push Russia out of Eastern Ukraine. Military targets in Russian territory need to be allowed to be targeted with American-supplied arms when that is deemed most efficient by the Ukrainian military.

But then we need to ask, what is the Republican border policy they want to pass so badly?

First and foremost, according to Reuters, it would “set tight limits on asylum seekers and require them to apply for U.S. protection outside the country.”

That was the law in 1939 when Republicans turned away thousands of Jewish refugees in 1939.

Article 31 Section 1 of the Convention clearly states

The Contracting States shall not impose penalties, on account of their illegal entry or presence, on refugees who, coming directly from a territory where their life or freedom was threatened in the sense of article 1, enter or are present in their territory without authorization, provided they present themselves without delay to the authorities and show good cause for their illegal entry or presence.

It couldn’t be much clearer than that.

Article 1 Section 1 of the Protocol clearly states:

The States Parties to the present Protocol undertake to apply articles 2 to 34 inclusive of the Convention to refugees as hereinafter defined.

It couldn’t be much clearer than that.

This means the Republican border plan of not granting asylum at the border is a violation of the Protocol, which we are a party to. It is illegal.

The irony is that part of the Republican demands to vote for military aid to Ukraine is to force refugees to apply for asylum outside of the United States, which makes it nearly impossible to apply for refugee status. The Ukraine war is a major cause of refugees.

The Republican border plan is a violation of international human rights law, of which the United States is a party.

We must reelect Biden. He is so much better than the Republicans.

More details on the solution to the crisis in the Levant

I have written multiple times about how there were three primary reasons for the current war in Gaza.

  1. Distract the US government so we do not send aid to Izrael because Izrael supports Ruzzia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  2. Keep Netanyahu in office.
  3. Keeping Netanyahu in office delays the recognition of Palestine by the United States, which will be the end of Likud and Hamaz.

We have seen Izrael become closer to Ruzzia as their relationship with the United States becomes more strained.

A major signal of this alignment can be seen in this United Nations Security Council Resolution, where the US and Ruzzia vote together.

The unprovoked attack on the Iranian embassy by Izrael’s military on April 1st realizes a massive shift in the war. The War in Gaza is dying down. The United States has been telling Izrael not to invade Gaza because there will be massive civilian casualties. The civilians have nowhere to flee because Egypt and Jordan do support the two-state solution, which Biden loves to jerk off about but does nothing to achieve as long as his long-standing personal friendship with Netanyahu stands in the way. This is a big part of what makes Biden such a weak president. He lets his personal friendships stand in the way of our national security, just like Trump.

So, let’s say the United States doesn’t allow Izrael to attack Gaza and instead brokers a peace agreement. Izraeli drone strikes have already killed the Jewish hostages of Hamaz. So much of Gaza has been razed already, and food has been so scarce, it is hard to know if any are still alive.

This further reinforces my belief that Hamaz and Likud are working in parallel to maintain the status quo. If that was not the case, Likud would have instructed the IDF to be more careful and not kill as many civilians. Likud doesn’t care about Jews.

They must keep it under wraps until Putin gives them the signal.

It will also massively accelerate the peace process with the Palestinian Authority, weakening Hamaz. A weaker Hamaz means a weaker Likud.

Netanyahu is trying to bide his time at this point. If Ruzzia loses the war in Ukraine, it will not be a safe place for Netanyahu to go after he is impeached. He will be arrested or killed along with Putin. If there is an arrest warrant out for Netanyahu, and there will be soon, he will have nowhere to go.

As long as the war in Gaza is maintained, the longer it will be until needed aid goes to Ukraine to end the war, and Ukraine can retake all of its territory.

For this reason, it is of utmost importance that the Biden Administration puts America before Netanyahu’s personal interests and brokers a peace agreement with Palestine immediately, which includes recognition of Palestine by the United States and the rest of NATO.

What can the United States do?

First of all, we need to recognize Palestine as an independent state. We need to vote to give Palestine membership in the United Nations. It is all but certain Ruzzia will vote against this resolution, but we need to speed along this shift.

We need to stop sending military aid to Izrael. It is time to cut our losses and support democracies like Ukraine.

As I have written, a two-state solution requires international recognition of Palestine. Otherwise, Palestine is a mere Bantustan.

Then the United States can send more military aid to Ukraine, end the Ruzzian invasion, and Putin can be brought into custody.

The most infuriating part of all of this is it is now obvious the Iron Dome over Izrael works. The United States has refused to provide Ukraine with a similar system, and the only reason I can come up with is how Putin has compromised the Republican Party. Ukraine has been under a much more serious threat for the last decade, as can be seen by how more Ukrainians have died in the last decade of war than Izraelis have died in the past 80 years of war in the Levant. It is obvious Ukraine needs a missile defense system and NATO membership.

Ruzzia bought out Trump in the 1980s; Putin has maintained control over Trump through financial means, the Republican party will do whatever Trump tells them to do since 40% of Republicans are die-hard Trump supporters, so there is insufficient dissent within the Republican Party today. Even though 20 Republicans voted to support Ukraine in the Senate, Mike Johnson is another puppet of Ruzzia. Mike Johnson and Donald Trump are threats to international security. Biden is highly flawed. Johnson and Trump are evil.

Mike Johnson has received substantial contributions from Ruzzian natural gas firms. This is illegal. There is no grey area. A very similar thing happened with Donald Trump’s campaign in 2016. I doubt the foreign contributions to Trump’s campaign have ended.

The Republicans are using the excuse of the border, a crisis the Republican Party manufactured by changing immigration law in 2002, as the reason why they cannot send aid to Ukraine.

If Ruzzia democratizes, then Izrael has lost its one remaining ally. They will be forced to work with the United States under a democratic framework. The independence of Palestine under a democratic framework Hamaz will become irrelevant. I cannot state enough this will force Likud out of power. Then, Izrael can be a democracy. Democracy is more than hosting elections, and it cannot be considered a democracy as long as Palestinians do not have citizenship in a UN member state. Their Press Freedom Index is 57. This places them on par with Albania, Haiti, and the Central African Republic. They are ranked lower than Brazil, Mongolia, Niger, Georgia, and Ukraine. The only EU member state with a lower press freedom score than Izrael is Greece and by only a few points. objectivelists.com is a useful website that scores countries on various metrics. The “Anglo World” is paired with Europe, while Izrael is in the Middle East. It is also the most unique country in the world. Izrael should be treated as just another country. Their press freedom score dropped from 69 in 2021 to 57 today. This is one of the fastest democratic regressions in the modern era. We have the power to stop it. We must stop it.

To end the Arab-Israeli War, the United States needs to step in and broker an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which will include the following non-negotiable points:

  1. Complete Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Palestine will gain complete control of the Gaza Strip.
  2. The United States and Israel will immediately recognize Palestine as a fully sovereign and independent country. Palestinians will be granted visa-free travel to the United States.
  3. The United States will pressure our allies to recognize Palestine.
  4. Israel will ensure safe passage between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank through Israeli territory without customs checks unless the Palestinians divert from the corridor.
  5. The United States will pressure countries that have not recognized Israel to recognize Israel in exchange for America’s recognition of Palestine.
  6. Palestine will be given a mutual protection pact from the United States. This will ensure peace.

There are no other countries in the world with enough significance and Ruzzian influence to be used by Putin to distract the United States from our dire need to support Ukraine with as much military power as we can. The other large autocracies with a GDP per capita above USD 5000 are Azerbaijan, China, Cuba, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia.

  • Azerbaijan is allied with Turkey, so they are somewhat constrained.
  • China is constrained by geography, and it also does not have military ambitions beyond Taiwan. I have written about this before.
  • Cuba is too close to the United States geographically and too economically tied with many American allies to be a threat.
  • Iraq is too poor; it barely beats the $5000 minimum to be on this list.
  • Kazakhstan is landlocked.
  • Saudi Arabia is constrained by trade, so they are limited to funding terrorism.

There is no other war Ruzzia can start soon to distract the United States enough to postpone the Ukrainian victory. A resurgence of the Korean War would result in the victory of the Republic of Korea. Izrael is unique in that it is a country the United States believes is on our side, but in reality, it has been drifting closer to Ruzzia for decades, so it doesn’t count as a US ally today.

Once Ukraine wins, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia need immediate NATO membership.

This is likely because Ukraine has signed several mutual protection pacts over the last few years, all of which are NATO members.

This map is growing rapidly, so check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_alliances for up-to-date information.

I hope in a few years, the map of alliances with the United States will at least look like this:

This is what I believe is best for the future. Palestine needs independence and control of their borders. Israel needs their politics to come back to the center; Netanyahu’s time in office has been detrimental to Jews in Israel and around the world. The United States needs to build up our alliances globally and bring Israel to the liberal consensus. That is the only way I can see to solve the crisis in the Middle East.

Israel attacked Iran first

Imagine what the United States would do if Ukraine went as far as arresting Russian embassy workers in Ukrainian territory after the 2014 war when the embassy was still open. The Russian embassy in Kyiv was open until the day before Russia expanded its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This was after about six months of Russia deploying their troops on Ukraine’s border, according to satellite footage. Funny enough, that was about when the United States surrendered to Saudi terrorists in Afghanistan. If you had no experience in politics, you might assume that was a coincidence.

Israel bombed the embassy of Iran in Damascus 12 days ago. The record is clear. Israel struck Iran first, and Israel has 100% of the blame if Iran retaliates against Israel. The United States should not get involved on the side of the aggressor, which is ISRAEL.

Ukraine, however, is innocent. They couldn’t possibly be more different. Russia is the aggressor in that war 100%, and we must support Ukraine.

We must abandon Israel. This war is 100% their fault. They created Hamas in the beginning to destabilize Palestine. They are the ones who attacked Iran first. The Israeli government is dishonest and consistently violates international law. They have been readjusting their alliance to be more with Russia and distancing themselves from the United States. It is past time to let Israel see the consequences of their decisions.

If you were to bomb the capital of the country that founded Hamas, according to IDF veterans, you would need to bomb Tel Aviv.

Ukrainians, meanwhile, are seeing their homes destroyed by Russians as our government lambasts Ukraine for attacking military installations in Western Russia. The hypocrisy is astounding. Every weapon we have sent to Israel over the last decade should have gone to Ukraine instead, a country that a hostile enemy is invading.

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embassy_of_Russia,_Kyiv

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_bombing_of_the_Iranian_embassy_in_Damascus

One way to reduce emissions

Go spend 30 minutes reading abstracts in peer reviewed literature regarding pollution from packaging.

If you are trying to reduce carbon emissions from packaging, and you are trying to do it through banning one form of packaging or another, it is a losing battle. The literature is a mess. No study properly accounts for all emissions from harvesting raw materials, production, recycling, the electricity emissions from that production, to give a clear answer which can lead you to accurately pick which form of packaging will have the lowest carbon emissions 100% of the time. This is without taking into consideration long term pollution beyond carbon emissions.

The only way to accurately account for all of the carbon emissions of every stage of production in packaging is through a broad based carbon tax with as few exemptions as possible. It is also the only policy you can implement which will create the incentive to reduce emissions at every stage of production. Every other method miscalculates the true carbon impact. A carbon tax is the only realistic option.

Worst Speaker in history

Mike Johnson may have to choose between Ukraine aid and his job
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/04/11/mike-johnson-may-have-to-choose-between-ukraine-aid-and-his-job
from The Economist

Mike Johnson, the creepy dude from the bayous of Louisiana who shares with his underage son when he watches porn, is a radical evangelical who uses his faith in hatred as a bludgeon against people who wouldn’t even know his name if he was not one of the most powerful people in the world.

He is also one of the most dangerous people in the world. He supports Israel’s actions in Gaza while supporting Putin. He is a threat to the security of the United States who is blocking aid to Ukraine today. He is putting us all in danger, not just Americans, but everybody in the world.

This is the man who the Republicans have backed as their leader along with Donald Trump, a convicted felon who has committed fraud at a grand scale, rapes women, and actively told his supporters during a global pandemic to ignore the advice of experts.

These are the people who the Republican Party get behind. This is the option we are given. Biden is far from perfect, and his foreign policy is bad, but the foreign policy of the Republican Party is all of the worst of the Biden administration on steroids. Given the choice, Biden is obviously the highly flawed but better option in this dilemma.

Vote progressive in the primaries and get as many democrats into office as possible.

Republicans are a threat to human rights and national and international security.

A world without deterrance

In August of 2008 Russia invaded Georgia. Russia had de facto control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 1991, but the 2008 war reinforced this already existing reality on the ground. Russia officially recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent. There was significant deterrence still from the United States since we were involved in two wars and it was widely believed that NATO would come to Georgia’s aid, and Sarkozy followed through by brokering a peace agreement after the 8 day war ended.

6 years passed and in 2014 the Euromaidan protest in Ukraine overthrew their pro-Russian president Yanukovich. The more western oriented Petro Poroshenko became president and in retaliation Russia annexed Crimea at gunpoint, falsely claiming their soldiers were locals. Russian backed separatists in Donbas and Luhansk then successfully gained control of the region. NATO did not supply Ukraine sufficiently to block Russia’s annexation, settling for a status quo in a peace agreement, demonstrating that just like in Georgia, Russia could take territory at gunpoint. The United States could have demanded more of Russia, but the Obama administration was still under the delusion Putin could be bargained with.

In August 2021 the United States surrendered to the Taliban and the Taliban took over Afghanistan. There were now serious doubts about whether the United States would uphold its end of defending smaller democracies, so Putin tested this theory with Ukraine in February 2022. Despite a Democratic Trifecta, NATO did not supply Ukraine with sufficient firepower to prevent the Russian invasion, despite months of warning from satellite imagery. This entire war was completely preventable. It could have been prevented in 2014, which could have been prevented in 2008 through less compromising with Russia in both circumstances.

Despite the claims for “rule based world order” and maintaining existing international boundaries, these rules clearly do not apply when Russia wants territory.

There is fear now that we are facing a world without nuclear deterrence and a free for all if Trump is elected President, but I fear we are already living in a world where the deterrence created by NATO as we saw with the intervention in the Kosovo War is no longer the reality of the world today. America’s unwillingness to confront Russia, and the willingness to put the interests of Ukrainians and Georgians to the side has led to a far more dangerous world. The Budapest Memorandum only empowered Russia by reducing Ukraine’s nuclear deterrence, but most importantly, it did not grant Ukraine any protection when they were forced to give up weapons. While on paper it guaranteed Ukrainian protection from Russian invasion, because this was already foreseen as a possibility even in 1994, it did not grant Ukraine any de jure mutual protection pacts but instead stated Ukraine was a “neutral country”. We now know how well that has worked out.

The two main schools of thought in international relations are liberalism and realism. Liberalism sees the power of international treaties like NATO as major deterrences to war. It also views the spread of democracy and trade as reducing, but not eliminating, the probability of war. These theories are good, and explain a lot of behavior between nations very well, but trade does not guarantee there will be no war, it merely reduces the probability of war. The structure of governments also matters as it says with democratic peace theory, and by 2008 Russia no longer met these requirements. Russia also was not sanctioned in response to their invasion of Georgia, and by this they learned they would not suffer economic consequences for military invasions. Sanctions against Russia leading to the removal of Putin in 2008 could have prevented the current war in Ukraine according to Liberalism. Democratizing Russia along with their already existing trade with Europe would further reduce the probability of conflict.

By 2014 it became obvious there would be no economic consequences for Putin and given the promise of President Biden that America would focus on our dire problems here at home despite our treaties, that gave Putin the green flag that the Biden presidency was the perfect time to attack Ukraine. He has suffered sanctions from the EU and US, but enough other countries have continued to trade with Russia in order to keep his economy afloat. Given this lack of military support and international framework to protect Ukraine, liberalism did not predict Ukraine would not be invaded by Russia.

We come to the same conclusion even easier with Realpolitik. Realism also sees the power of alliances in order to prevent war through a balance of power. It is all about Balance of Power. With the United States surrendering in Afghanistan and how we did not give Ukraine enough aid back in 2014 to repel Russia, it was clear the balance of power in Eastern Europe was not balanced, so realpolitik does predict that the situation of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 made it ripe for invasion.

Realpolitik and liberalism agree that a formal alliance with Ukraine as a NATO member would prevent war. A strong Ukrainian military according to Realpolitik would prevent a Russian invasion. Further Russian dependence on trade with countries friendly to Ukraine would prevent war, but there is too much trade with China, India, Israel, and Iran to counteract the sanctions from the US and EU.

There are multiple tools which would prevent more war in Ukraine, but our leaders have not listened to international relations theory and here we are today. We are now paying the price by not listening to experts in international relations.

I do not believe the Ukraine war is 100% the fault of NATO. Putin is the penultimate cause of the war. He chose to invade Ukraine. He chose to see it as an integral part of Russia, which it clearly is not. I believe the refusal to quickly grant Ukraine and Georgia membership in NATO in 2008 substantially contributed to the wars in each though, by preventing a clear consequence to Putin if he invaded, so we are not blameless. Ukraine and Georgia should be members of NATO, and they should have become members in 2008. I also believe that joining NATO increases the security of member states, and I will believe this until NATO is attacked.

What we are seeing now in Ukraine is where there is not enough deterrence to prevent Russia from invading. Russia is suffering a demographic crisis due to severe poverty which is felt by most Russians. The invasion of Ukraine is a way for Russia to temporarily solve its demographic crisis and make Putin look like a strong leader, given his belief that the West is weak and does not want to get involved in another war. So far he has been proven right. Despite there being a Democratic trifecta in the United States when the war began, we did not provide sufficient aid to Ukraine to prevent the Russian invasion, so Putin is correct in his belief that NATO protection ends at NATO’s borders.

It is not the 1990s anymore.

As long as Biden or Trump is President, we are living in a world without sufficient deterrence. The willingness of Obama and Bush to stand up for Ukraine and Georgia during those conflicts is absent in the administrations of Biden and Trump. If it wasn’t for evangelical support for Israel, they wouldn’t care about Israel either. Israel is currently switching alliances anyways to Russia due to these two men.

Nuclear bombs do not matter nearly as much as the willingness to use conventional weapons to counter invasions on the borders of democracies. Everyone knows that using a nuclear bomb today would bring global condemnation to the launching party which would effectively end that government’s standing in the global order. Conventional weapons are effective at containing dictatorships, but without that military support, we are truly in the anarchic world as portrayed by realpolitik.

The anarchic world is a world of war and danger, and until we rebuild our military support of countries like Ukraine and give them official membership in NATO, we are already living in a world without sufficient deterrence, nuclear weapons be damned, and we will only see more war.

Progressive Taxes and MarioKart

This is brilliant. Bullets are the equivalent of food stamps and rent assistance. It allows people to improve quickly, but simply getting a bullet does not mean you will win, especially in the third lap.

Blue shells are the equivalent of tax rates of 40-50%, which we used to have. You are thrown back a little bit, but you are not totally ruined. You can still win the game after getting a blue shell.

Love it.