The military-industrial complex relishes a potential war with China. It could be long and drawn out, at least from a cursory overview, and their profits would soar.
They don’t want to eliminate the Russian plutocracy because if Russia stops invading their neighbors, they will lose money in the near term. Russia is a long-term investment for these psychopaths by keeping the status quo.
Russia is doing all the things the military-industrial complex is telling us China is doing.
If Russia’s government democratizes, Syria will stabilize, hurting military-industrial complex profits. If Iran loses its primary support, Russia, and its government collapses, the fear-mongering in Israel will be significantly reduced, making peace talks more likely there. All of this reduces military-industrial complex profits.
If Israel and Palestine solved their problem with either a two-state solution or Israeli citizenship for Palestinians, and tensions in the Middle East plummeted, American arms shipments to Israel would collapse, and military-industrial profits would collapse.
Suppose Afghanistan is democratized fully, and the terrorists are removed. In that case, restrictions on our freedom from the PATRIOT ACT will be reduced, and the reduced threat of terrorism will hurt the profits of the military-industrial complex. If we had finished the job in Afghanistan with a slow, steady, drawn-out education of the country and building a robust democratic government, the probability of a resumed War in Afghanistan would have gone down to normal levels, hurting long-term military-industrial complex profits! We had to leave Afghanistan, so Boeing’s stock price will go up when we must take the terrorists out again! Damn the children! There’s money to be made!
Rapid democratization has occurred worldwide. Today, only eight countries have a Democracy Index under 4, a population of over 10 million, and a GDP per capita of over 5000 USD: Azerbaijan, China, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. If these countries improve, the probability of war decreases, and the stock prices of military-industrial complex members will collapse.
Russia and China stand out as the only autocracies with over a hundred million people.
Countries in Africa are so poor they don’t matter on the world stage. They have no power nor the ability to threaten the United States.
The only likely invasion China would do is an invasion of Taiwan. I suppose this would be a boon for the military-industrial complex for obvious reasons.
In the aftermath of America’s unwillingness to supply Ukraine with enough arms for a quick and total victory, China sees its opportunity to potentially take Taiwan.
The best thing to prevent an invasion of Taiwan is to ensure Ukraine has a complete and total victory. Decimate the Russian army.
The People’s Republic of China’s list of military alliances is thin. The total victory of Ukraine would substantially weaken Russia, so Russia would be unable to provide China with any meaningful assistance. China will then need to be self-sufficient. It could get North Korea involved in the war, which would guarantee South Korean involvement, likely ending with the Republic of Korea retaking the entire peninsula. North Korea would be unable to assist in an invasion of Taiwan, facing that existential threat. Japan might even get involved to assist South Korea since North Korea enjoys threatening Japan.
With Russia substantially weakened, the next large player is Saudi Arabia, but given their economic dependence on the United States and Europe, their assisting China would be insignificant and a form of self-harm. Iraq, Cuba, and Azerbaijan are too poor to make much of an impact. Kazakhstan’s population is a literal rounding error, with fewer than 20,000,000 citizens. China would fight alone.
If China wanted to err, they would invade the United States directly, which would guarantee NATO involvement. This would guarantee that they would be fighting a nearly equivalent number of people, and the combined naval and air force strength of all of NATO would prevent China from reaching the main island of Taiwan, and China would face significant naval losses in the process. Over half of all military spending in the world is from NATO. It is a war China would lose.
In the worst possible scenario for China, India would get involved. An invasion of Taiwan with a lone Chinese army distracted by Taiwan could convince India that now is the time to solidify their land claims against China and to free Tibet.
If China invades Taiwan, they will fight alone, and Taiwan will not. The guaranteed loss of trade with the EU, Japan, and the United States will immediately collapse China’s economy, similar to what we see in Russia. If Taiwan is defended by her allies, this is a war China might not just lose but lose badly by losing territory in the East and possibly seeing the Republic of China return to the mainland.
So here we are in the best-case scenario for the military-industrial complex. The Ukraine war has been artificially turned into a long war. There is a brewing terrorist threat in Afghanistan. The US and Israeli governments are acting against any peace agreement with Palestine. Increased tensions with China keep arms sales high, even though the possibility of victory against Taiwan is slim, and the possibility of the worst possible defeat for China is a real possibility. Removing the People’s Republic of China and Putin from the map would be the most significant test of Democratic Peace Theory and, in the long run, bad for military sales.
The military-industrial complex wants to keep the status quo to maximize potential conflict. New wars involving the United States, which could be drawn into long wars, are unlikely, so it is best to keep the status quo while keeping Afghanistan in reserves for a future conflict.
Additional reading:
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/03/09/america-and-china-are-preparing-for-a-war-over-taiwan
