There is a situation brewing in the world where there is a high probability there will be genocide. Do you intervene or not? If you intervene before the genocide starts, you will be accused of a preemptive strike. You will have the burden of proof that the genocide was going to occur. You will be accused of being a warmonger.
If the genocide or war does indeed start, you are already damned for not intervening. If you intervene to protect the defending party, you will be accused of standing against peace by some people. If you are on the left wing, it could be a political problem for you. If you don’t intervene and the war spirals further out of hand, you will be accused of not ending the war.
If you let the war or genocide take its course and do not intervene, you will be damned for not stopping it sooner when you had the power to reduce casualties.
Let’s label these cases:
- Alpha-neutral: No intervention when the event is imminent.
- Alpha-action: Intervene when the event is imminent.
- Beta-action: Intervene once the war begins
- Beta-neutral: Do not intervene after the war begins.
- Gamma-neutral: Do not intervene at any point
We can now label actual historical events
- Holocaust – beta action
- Kosovo War – beta action
- Probable Kosovo genocide 1999 – Alpha action
- Rwanda genocide 1994 – Gamma neutral
- Russian invasions of Ukraine and Georgia: Gamma neutral
- Soviet/Chinese invasion of South Vietnam: beta action
- Great Leap Forward: gamma neutral
- Japanese invasion of Manchuria: beta-action
When human rights abuses occur, the President of the United States is damned no matter what they do.
We might as well just make the best choice for peace in the long term, understanding there will be criticism.
The only way to avoid criticism is to live in a world without invasion, but that is out of our control.