If you look at the Russian population pyramid, there are several important places to remember which are clear in this population pyramid as I have clearly marked.
Russia didn’t have to have its current baby bust. If Russia hadn’t invaded Ukraine and focused on upskilling Russians, growing their domestic economy, and improving the quality of life for average Russians they would have continued to grow. But Vladimir Putin made a massive miscalculation when he invaded Ukraine.
source: tradingeconomics.com
Following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine the Russian economy went in a 3 year decline, at exactly the same point when the Russian economy declined. The Russian economy started to grow finally in 2018, and they had 2 years of growth until the COVID epidemic in 2020, followed by a massive recovery in 2021.
But this year Russia is on track to see its economy decline, according to internal sources.
source: tradingeconomics.com
Putin has led Russia into a depression with his war in Ukraine.
There are only a few ways this can end.
- The Russian people finally get fed up with their economy having regular severe recessions which correspond almost perfectly to Putin’s foreign invasions. There is a revolution and he is replaced with a democracy.
- Enough soldiers die in Ukraine that the baby bust becomes even more severe and it causes further economic hardship that a revolution comes in the next 10 years.
- Putin is replaced by another oligarch, but this won’t end the sanctions from the West, and there will be a revolution of the people.
- Russia continues to stagnate for the foreseeable future, with millions of young men killed by vodka, and their people will continue to be poor.
If you don’t think Russians will revolt in the face of economic hardship… you really need to learn about Russian history.
Putin had one job. If he had just kept Russia to itself, kept trading with other countries, and developed local industry and developed Russian brands, Russia could have been an emerging tech power. Russia has a literacy rate of 99.7%, and 54% of Russians have a tertiary degree, the highest in the world, on par with only Canada, 10% higher than the United States. By these metrics, Russia should be a tech super power with global brands based in their country.
But the government of Russia has continuously decided that invading foreign powers is more important than building domestic companies. They have prioritized the coddling of local oligarchs who make shoddy off-brand copies of foreign countries. Their government have decided that their only strategy is to dominate other countries and kill people instead of building up the Russian people. It’s an absolute tragedy.
If Russia were to be able to develop in a way which developed their economy and start to deal with their horrible vodka addiction which is literally killing their people, it would become a major power which could trade with other countries instead of seeing the domination and enslavement of people as their only way forward. But the Russian government is stupid and unable to learn this.
So the Russian people will continue to suffer until they stop being led by extreme racist, homophobic leaders who destroy their economy and their people.
So, for the people of Russia, you have a choice between being a poor people with laws which persecute against LGBT people and are outcasts from the rest of the world, or being a country fully integrated with the rest of the world with a vibrant economy.
It’s your choice.