Two things matter right now,
- Do Manchin and Sinema support the bulk of BBB (hint, we know they don’t)
- Will voting rights be passed
This will determine the next decade. Plain and simple. We have three potential futures which will be determined by these two decisions:
- We get only half of BBB and no voting rights (probably our reality)
- We get the full BBB and voting rights
- We get the full BBB and no voting rights
If Manchin and Sinema allow voting rights to pass (which requires filibuster abolition) we will get the other half of BBB, the thought we will get filibuster abolition, voting rights, and only half of BBB is preposterous. It can be discarded.
Scenario 1
This is probably our reality. Democrats run on around 10% of what Biden promised. Voting discrimination passes in more states, particularly Missouri. Democrats have negligible accomplishments and many of their voters have been removed from voter rolls. Republicans easily win the midterms. Bidens obsession with bipartisanship makes him the least significant President since James Garfield, with no major accomplishments. Republicans win in 2024, eliminating what little progress we made.
Scenario 2
The harsh reality of voter suppression finally means the Biden administration has to face the reality that the filibuster could make him insignificant. He uses his influence to convince Manchin and Sinema to abolish the filibuster and they pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. They pass the rest of BBB and democrats run on it next year. With expanded voting rights and a base who isn’t discouraged, the democrats keep their trifecta.
Scenario 3
Democrats have the full BBB to run on. Many POC voters are discriminated against, so democrats underperform. Its really hard for predict who gets congress, but it will be close. Voter discrimination in Georgia, Arizona, and Missouri (which is probably coming) will probably cost the Democrats the Senate.
President Biden, please put more pressure on Manchin and Sinema, they are the only ones holding up your agenda.