It’s quite simple… $10 million against a deeply entrenched establishment Republican with a deep war chest in a very red state or $500k each against 20 Republicans in deep blue states who are facing strong campaigns from community leaders…
It’s pretty clear from this which strategy is going to win in the 2022 Senate election.
Also, focusing on more down ballot candidates in state legislatures and arming them to the teeth so they can have a paid staff which can increase community engagement which easily translates into votes is going to be a winning strategy.
My vote totals will be assuming Democrats do not win in Georgia given how much Democrats under performed this year. Hopefully I am wrong
This January we are looking at two toss ups in Georgia, and if both are a 50/50 chance of flipping, it means there is a 25% chance of the Democrats having a trifecta in January. This is possible, but by no means do I consider that a comfortable probability, especially after large under performances in many states which have voted for Democrats in the last 20 years.
In the 75% chance that the Democrats do not gain a majority in the Senate this year, then the 2022 Senate election will become absolutely critical if Biden is to have any long lasting legacy.
Republicans won a plurality but did not win a majority of the vote in Alaska, Pennsylvania, or Missouri in the 2016. If the Democrats manage to flip these three seats and do not lose any then they will have 51 seats and a majority. Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida are also states where Republicans won small majorities.
I believe the easiest seat to get back will be Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey won only 51% of the vote in 2010 against Joe Sestak who had been in congress for 20 years. Biden and Obama both won Pennsylvania and with the right candidate and the right strategy, it should be easy to get Pennsylvania back. If Tom Wolf uses his power appropriately to get a fair redistricting map in the next 12 months then he is the natural pick.
D-47, R-51, I-2
The next easiest seat to win back is going to be Wisconsin. Ron Johnson won with only 51.9% of the vote in 2010, Joe Biden won a small majority in the state this year, and if we run the right candidate with the right national strategy, we will be able to pick Wisconsin up in 2022.
D-48, R-50, I-2
In order to gain a 50 seat majority (without the New England independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King) the Democrats will need to win two more seats. I believe with the right campaign strategy and boots on the ground campaigning that we can elect a Democrat in Florida. Marco Rubio won with only 48.9% of the vote in 2010, and in 2016 he ran against a former Republican and won 52% of the vote. Ted Deutch is a good candidate to succeed Marco Rubio. He is not a former Republican, he will have 12 years of experience in the House, and another 4 years of experience in the Florida Senate. He is strong on gun control, and environmental issues. As Florida is one of the states most threatened by climate change, given its low elevation and routine hurricanes which are becoming more serious as time goes on, I believe we can pick up Florida in 2022 as long as we don’t run a former Republican. If there is a massive hurricane in Florida over the next two years, his odds will improve significantly given his climate advocacy. He will be the best Democratic candidate for that seat in Florida since 1996, with the most political experience, and I think if he has a good strategy in his campaign he will win.
D-49, R-49, I-2
North Carolina is going to be an open Senate seat in 2022. Given how close Biden came to winning North Carolina this year, and that Obama won North Carolina in 2008, with the right strategy the Democrats should be able to win a narrow majority, which will bring the Republicans down to 48 seats.
D-50, R-48, I-2
That is the easiest way for Democrats to win the 2022 Senate election.