Stidmatt

If you don’t have good candidates to vote for, you won’t have good people in office.

A summary of how Orban came to power:

In 2009 the Hungarian Prime Minister resigned after the war in Georgia because he had put his entire political fortunes on a gas pipeline from Russia. This is a very unpopular move in former Russian colonies like Hungary.

Orban ran and won in 2010 offering a different stance compared to the nominally center-left party which was leaving office. The Democratic Coalition has remained a minor party ever since due to its pro-Russian history.

Under Orban, there has been fairly consistent growth in Hungary’s GDP per capita. They have remained part of the European Union, NATO, and most importantly the Schengen area. Granted, he is a right-wing asshole, postponing Romania and Bulgaria’s accession to the Schengen Area and refusing to send Ukraine military aid during this war, but Hungary has remained part of these vital institutions.

It’s only since Orban has been refusing to send Ukraine military aid in the last few years that a real opposition has formed against him. The left-wing coalition in Hungary has not recovered since. The only opposition to Orban which has managed to form in response to him over the last few years is also center-right and also opposes sending aid to Ukraine, so don’t expect them to change any.

Plus, Fidesz has never won an outright majority in parliament, they have always been in coalition with a center-right party.

The reason Orban has stayed in power is simply because the left wing in Hungary effectively does not exist.

If the center-left parties can make it clear they oppose Putin and support Ukraine, maybe things will change. The polling data tends to match up with the election results very closely. If Hungary got too despotic, they are in the Schengen Area so there is nothing stopping Hungarians from moving anywhere else in the Schengen Area or European Union. This acts as an effective brake on Orban’s right-wing policies.

For a counter-example, British citizens used to have the same rights Hungarians do but since Brexit went into effect they no longer have the right to freely live and work in the European Union. If the Tories come to power under Nigel Farage, the British people will be effectively trapped in a way that Hungarians are not.

For this reason, while I am no fan of Viktor Orban for many legitimate reasons, he is still a better prime minister than Keir Starmer or David Cameron.

First of all, I do not think anyone from Biden’s cabinet is going to run again. Even if they do, I do not think any of them will be able to win. They’re done. They had their chance. They blew it. Biden set Trump up for a victory through many mistakes in foreign policy, and everyone in the cabinet will have to face the question “you were working on the Biden team, and when Harris ran against Trump she lost the popular vote. What makes you more qualified than her?” They’re all done with their careers in government.

Generally, candidates will be sitting senators or governors. There are no living Democratic vice presidents who are likely to run again. It is unheard of for a Democratic candidate who lost the general election to run again and win. Harris will not be the first. Trump was able to pull it off because he has built a cult of personality. Harris does not have a cult of personality. It will be someone new.

So if we look at incumbent Senators or governors both after 1970 there are only 3 senators who will likely run. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, and Chris Murphy of Connecticut.

I think it is indisputable that the War in Gaza was a major factor in bringing down the Biden administration, so we want a candidate in 2028 who supported a ceasefire. I think it is also indisputable that the War in Ukraine harmed the economy, made Biden look weak, and significantly harmed Harris’ chances of winning last November. Chris Murphy is the only sitting senator born since 1970 who has supported arming Ukraine above what the administration has done and supported a ceasefire in Gaza. He might be low profile as Senators go, but I think that could change over the next 4 years if he plays his cards right. He is well-positioned to run for president.

Other senators who supported a ceasefire and were born after 1960 were Klobuchar, Booker, and Duckworth. These three senators are other likely candidates for the presidency in 2028.

There are a wide array of democratic governors who might run for president, including Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker, and Wes Moore.

We are looking for a governor who supports Ukraine, and supported a ceasefire in Gaza.

The one member of the House who has built up an impressive public profile and might run in 2028 is AOC.

Our next president is likely on this post.

It was negotiating with Ho Chi Minh to prolong the war in Vietnam in 1968.

It was keeping Americans hostage in Iran in 1980.

It was ending work visas for farm workers.

It was implementing visas for EU citizens to travel to the United States.

They allowed money laundering from the Gulf States to flow freely.

They allowed Russian oligarchs to set up bank accounts in London and Tel Aviv without scrutiny.

It was Brexit.

It was the support for qualified immunity.

It was abandoning Afghanistan without congressional approval.

It was the lack of solidarity with Ukraine.

It was bombing civilians in Gaza as Hamas leadership was safe in Qatar.

It was prolonging the bombing of Gaza until inauguration day.

It was giving US visa-lite access to Qatar before Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Romania.

Don’t be surprised they have now banned the word liberal on Instagram.

All of these are signs of looming fascism.

We need strong progressive leadership to stand up to all of these policies that have brought Trump to power.

We need to offer a real alternative.

Vote progressive.

This old article popped to the top of my results when looking for a summary of Ricardo’s trade theory, so I have to comment on why Ricardo was right.

200 Years of Ricardian Trade Theory: How Is This Still A Thing?

If this article was right, Brexit would have had a negative or beneficial impact to the United Kingdom’s economy. The truth has been the exact opposite.

Ricardo’s main ideas are the following:

• When countries are able to trade freely with each other, they will specialize in what they are best at and both countries will be better off by trading than producing everything at home. This is comparative advantage.
• Free trade does not have to be reciprocal to be beneficial to the country with low to no tariffs on imports. So even if the other country requires visas for your citizens, you are still better off allowing their citizens to travel to your country without a visa. Reciprocity is shooting your foot to spite your face.

Brexit is a near-perfect test of Ricardian trade theory, and Ricardo has been vindicated once again.

This is why he is still a major part of every economics education. Because his predictions work.

In 2001 bin Laden bit the hand which likely fed him and attacked the United States.

Afghanistan had undergone over 20 years of war already, starting with the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, followed by a brutal civil war which the Taliban won in 1994. They then decided to attack the United States only 7 years later.

As a result, the United States went in to take out their support of international terrorism and prevent future attacks coming from Afghanistan. The cheapest way to do this is through nation building. The least expensive way in terms of both lives and money. Giving people options and building a civil society reduces the number of potential recruits for terrorist organizations, at a very low cost for taxpayers.

This was the status quo for twenty years and the literacy rate in Afghanistan increased rapidly. As soon as Trump became president we reduced our investment in Afghani literacy, leading to his verbal agreement with the Taliban to give them control of the country, which is exactly what happened.

During the time we were in Afghanistan under Bush and Obama we continued to invest in Afghani education which was a very good investment.

Afghanistan was not highly rated on indices under the Islamic Republic scoring at 2.85/10 in 2020 on the democracy index. There was a lot of corruption, a lot of poverty, and lots of work to do. But at least girls were going to school.

But nowadays they are the lowest ranked country in the world according to the Economist Democracy Index. It had a poor score on par with Egypt and Cuba, and today they are rated lower than North Korea.

Al Qaeda has been increasing its network of training camps in Afghanistan now that the Taliban controls the country. If you don’t think they will attack the United States and our allies, you are a fool.

Terrorism is going to increase as a result of the unratified Trump/Biden agreement.

People know this, as we can see with how the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the lynchpin which moved Biden from net approval to net disapproval. Biden did not have any significant wins to counteract his loss in Afghanistan. He had a major loss in 2022 6 months after the withdrawal when Russia invaded Ukraine. He had a further loss in 2023 when Hamas kidnapped 30 Israeli citizens.

He lost the midterms.

He did not have any significant wins to counteract his three major foreign policy losses.

No one really cares about the reasons why. The United States is the most powerful country in the world. We alone have the power to deter terrorist groups and rogue states into compliance. We alone have the ability to send a large amount of weapons or troops to any place in the world to keep the peace. No other country in the history of the world has had the amount of military power the United States has today. No other country has more alliances. No other government has more information than us.

Which means that when a terrorist group launches a surprise attack anywhere in the world like happened from Gaza we must ask how much the United States knew? What could we have done to prevent it? Why didn’t we?

When Russia invades its neighbors, what information did we already have to know of the pending attack? Why didn’t we send significant military equipment to Ukraine before the invasion to prevent the attack in the first place? Why did we put significant barriers towards Ukraine using the weapons we did send them from the beginning? What was going through Biden’s mind?

Nuclear war? Give me a break. Send them missile defense systems to block the missiles like we have given to Israel.

The truth is that after these massive failures Biden has not had a single success. Biden has not been the major voice speaking out for Ukraine. Leaders in former Warsaw Pact colonies and Macron have done far more than Biden has as a percentage of GDP, along with fewer restrictions. Biden has been far more like Scholz, Merkel, and Starmer.

Biden was played like a fiddle with the situation in Gaza, which brought down his presidency.

There are a lot of lessons from the Biden presidency which we need to learn to do better in the future. Republicans are obviously going to be worse.

We cannot afford to make these mistakes again.

The next time we have a Democratic president we need someone who is unabashadly Atlanticist. Someone who opposes authoritarianism, and is willing to use all available tools to strenghten democracies and preserve the peace.

We need a president who will bring us closer to our allies. Cut down on visa restrictions, end ESTA, and bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

That’s the type of foreign policy victory which will allow the next Democratic president to win reelection.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-tiktok-ban-bill/

The last chapter in Howard Zinn’s book A People’s History of the United States is called “Bipartisan Consensus” and is mostly him talking about the Clinton administration’s privatization of Conrail, deregulation of banks, and other right-wing policies.

In the last 250 years of American history, a New Democrat has won a majority of the popular vote for the presidency one time, in 2020 in the midst of a pandemic. This is despite all but one candidate from the last 35 years being a New Democrat. We could have run a potato against Trump during the COVID pandemic and won.

As a startup owner and hosting my own website, I am very disturbed by the willingness of Democrats and Republicans to support the banning of individual companies in bills of attainder. This is wrong. I am disturbed that the Republican-controlled Supreme Court let the bill of attainder stand.

I posted a full thread on Bluesky going through the complicated legal proceedings that led to the TikTok ban becoming law. https://bsky.app/profile/stidmatt.bsky.social/post/3lg42cpcozk2v

I support the United States passing reasonable laws on data privacy and security. I am wary of requiring popups like the EU does, but I do support reasonable laws requiring companies to protect consumer data which is included in the GDPR.

I am an American and I am opposed to bills of attainder. I am opposed to laws forcing foreign-owned companies to sell to American stockholders.

As an economist, I have a heavy bias against protectionism.

I’m disturbed by how many Americans support a TikTok ban, based on this data from 2023 where over 60% of respondents supported the ban. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1376628/us-adults-opinion-on-banning-tiktok/

However, as more Americans became familiar with the reality of this ban and the precedence it sets for the future, only 32% of Americans continued to support the ban into 2024. Most of its support is from Republicans. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/05/support-for-a-us-tiktok-ban-continues-to-decline-and-half-of-adults-doubt-it-will-happen/#:~:text=Republicans%20and%20Republican%2Dleaning%20independents,supported%20the%20government%20banning%20TikTok.

What Americans do support though is reasonable laws governing data privacy. 72% of Americans and a majority of Americans from both parties support extending and modernizing data privacy laws. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/10/18/views-of-data-privacy-risks-personal-data-and-digital-privacy-laws/

The European Union has more advanced data privacy laws than the United States, and instead of banning TikTok outright, they are bringing them to court and demanding that TikTok comply with the law or leave the EU. First, they have to pay large fines giving them a chance to do the right thing. https://www.reuters.com/technology/tiktok-5-other-chinese-firms-hit-by-eu-privacy-complaints-2025-01-16/

Infuriatingly, there was a proposal in Congress in 2022 to modernize American data privacy laws in a way that would apply to every company. It was not even referred to a committee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Data_Privacy_and_Protection_Act

When we elect leaders, they need to be above the fray. They need to be willing to focus not on getting along with everyone or just doing things because they are popular, but doing what is right. We need people who will make it clear what their values are and then use their values to determine how they vote in the future. Popular opinion is easily swayed by the media, and people can be easily convinced into contradictory opinions. This is exactly why we don’t have direct democracy, instead voting for leaders who can be above the noise in mass media, and spend the time to understand issues and ideally guide us towards a better future. But democracy only works if politicians are willing to put the values they were elected on above constantly shifting political opinion on whatever issue is being pushed by pundits and grifts. Democracy only works when politicians are willing to stand for what is right.

Joe Biden has made it clear over his career that his primary value is unity. He cares most about working with Republicans, no matter who is harmed in the process. He is willing and has regularly thrown his allies to the side throughout his entire career to try to make his vision of bipartisanship a reality, and he has done so with his TikTok ban, which he supports.

In the vision of unity, we will now see many of Joe Biden’s policies continue under the next presidency of Donald Trump. Our Ukraine policy will remain mostly unchanged from before the election. We will restrict how they can use weapons beyond the rules of war, giving Putin an advantage on the battlefield. Our Israeli policy will not change. Our policy towards the EU will remain unchanged as well. If we were going to withdraw from NATO, we would have done it when we had a Republican trifecta in 2017.

The two candidates are so similar in their viewpoints that they are both claiming credit for the ceasefire in Gaza, which is clearly modeled almost exactly off the proposal Biden made almost a year ago.

The Biden presidency had one job which was to heal this country from Trumpism. At least this is what I believe most Democratic voters wanted, including myself. Instead, he chose a different path, to seek out unity with the Republican party and bring the two parties together. In doing so he has not brought the Republican Party away from the abyss, but under his leadership, the Democratic Party has drifted further right as we see through the bill of attainder against TikTok. He successfully convinced every member of his caucus to vote in favor of a bill of attainder, and his most important proposals such as the John Lewis Voting Rights Act failed. Expanding voting rights is still one of the most important issues in America and it failed because of the filibuster, which Biden supports.

Because when it comes down to it Biden has always valued unity above human rights.

That is very dangerous.

Now we will have unity by switching back to the second Trump presidency.

So, by Biden’s own metrics in terms of a president accomplishing his goals after being elected, Biden has successfully accomplished his most important life goal and we have now achieved unity in the United States, exemplified by the votes for the TikTok ban.

Nothing will fundamentally change.

Unity.

Unity.

The ceasefire is pretty simple when you get down to it.
Hamas will release all hostages. Israel will release most hostages. Israel ends its blockade on Gaza. Hamas will not rebuild its military abilities.

That’s pretty much it.

It does not solve the fundamental problems that underlie the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These problems are:

• Giving Palestinians voting rights in a UN member state.
• It does not define and enforce solid borders between Israel and Palestine. Solid borders do not require a closed border, just clear boundaries of jurisdiction.
• It does not grant Palestinians any rights when they are faced by Israeli citizens or authorities.

So, in short, I think this entire war was designed to put Trump back into office.

• This benefits Putin by reducing aid to Ukraine.
• It protects Netanyahu by preventing his impeachment which was about to happen in 2023.
• It protects Trump by putting him in office.
• It harms Israelis by not putting in place a permanent framework for peace in the region.
• It harms Palestinians by not removing Hamas and giving the Palestinian Authority a seat at the UN, which is the only way to undermine Hamas.
• Terrorist organizations have benefited significantly by using this war to their advantage to recruit suicide bombers.
• Iranian mullahs have benefited to consolidate power in Iran and portray the United States and Israel as the enemy.
• Qatar has benefited enormously to portray themselves as mediator while Hamas’ leadership is safe in Doha.
• Europe is significantly weakened by a second Trump presidency.

It’s the best we can do at this point in time. There is not a chance in hell of Netanyahu abandoning the settlements in the West Bank. Keeping Gaza as a fiefdom of Hamas strengthens his party by allowing them to fight when it is politically advantageous. It will not bring in democracy in Gaza, and Hamas will continue to rule Hamas. If you think that Hamas will not rearm over the next few years… I have a bridge to sell you.

The only silver lining to this is the bombing of Gaza will temporarily stop and rebuild.

Sorry if this doesn’t make me super happy, it’s better than nothing, but it has not ended the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Nothing has fundamentally changed.

A conversation with the New Democrats.

To all the people who have lost their homes in California, we are sorry fires keep breaking out on federal land. We have not restored the Forest Service budget since 2017.

But you must understand, as part of our master strategy, we need to compromise with the Republicans to move things through. In the long term, this will end up being better for all Americans because… well… compromise is the highest virtue of society.

We must get along with our neighbors no matter who they are. Being friendly with others is the most paramount value.

Oh, your dog died after your house was engulfed by a forest fire? I’m truly sorry, but there’s nothing we can do about it.

Your dog gave his life for his country. We are working towards a better society for all, you must understand this.

What better society? Well, you see, as part of our negotiation tactic we cannot show our hand. We need to keep our cards close as we are part of very complicated negotiations which are absolutely necessary in order to maintain control of government for the future. We cannot tell you our entire strategy, because that would make us look weak.

Hold on, I’m getting a call from the Kremlin, they are saying that if we put boots on the ground in Ukraine they are going to bomb New York. Let me just apologize to the Ukrainians that while their grandmothers are being raped and killed by the Russians that we just can’t prevent it and they are a sacrifice as part of our greater plan towards Unity.

Unity is the paramount value of the Southern Democratic Party. The tall blade of grass is the first to get mowed, so don’t stand out.

Damn, hold on, I just saw on the news that every Democrat who lost their seat in the midterms in 2022 was a member of our caucus, regardless of the political swing of the district. Why won’t you just accept we are right?

Fuck, Elizabeth Warren keeps calling us to restore funding for the Forest Service, she is so annoying, hold on.

Yes, Senator McConnell? Oh yeah, sure, we can scrap the funding for post natal care from the funding bill, yes we do believe you,  you won’t filibuster it now? Great. I’ll call Senator Manchin and tell him to kill that welfare money. See you at the golf club on Saturday.

Sorry, where were we? We need you to accept on faith that we know what we are doing and things will work out. Trust us. The election is in a few months and we will definitely win this election.

*A few months later*

Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote.

You fucking progressives didn’t vote for us again? You are traitors to the party, and you might as well be… oh wait, hold on, I’m getting a call from my staffer.

WHAT DO YOU MEAN MY HIGHEST VOTE TURNOUT WAS FROM THOSE FUCKING COMMIES! Where are the middle class white suburbanite families?! You mean they swung to Trump? What happened with college students? Oh right, they still voted for us overall, but at a lower amount. Ok, people who grew up under Comrade Obama still vote Democrat, damn. What about people who grew up under my good friend Bill? They voted Republican!? What is it, the Defense of Marriage Act, Rwanda Genocide, or deregulation of Wall Street? Fuck. Who kept their seats?

Fuck, AOC is still in Congress. We won in West Virginia, right? God dammit, we lost West Virginia. Arizona? Oh, we have that socialist Gallego in there now. Both Manchin and Sinema are gone, damn, I liked them. Gallego is going to be such a pain in the ass.

Our numbers are thinning, Trump won the election, our most reasonable Senators are gone, and Trump has a trifecta.

It looks like our strategy failed.

 

It’s time for a change. Vote progressive.

Trump will be reinaugurated in 9 days, and there are already telling signs of what the Republican nominee’s keys might look like in 2028.

It is unlikely Republicans will have a lot of keys in 2028, no matter who is on the ballot.

 

Year

Party mandate

No primary contest

Incumbent seeking re-election

No third party

Strong short-term economy perception

Strong long-term economy perception

Major policy change

No social unrest

No scandal

No foreign or military failure

Major foreign or military success

Charismatic incumbent

Uncharismatic challenger

False keys

2024

False

True

False

True

False

False

False

True

True

False

False

False

True

8

2028

TBD in 2026

Likely False

False

unknown

False

False

unknown

False

False

False

False

False

unknown

at least 8

Trump is going to have a lot of false keys. The only way an incumbent could seek re-election is if JD Vance becomes president at some point during Trump’s second term. I think it is highly unlikely Trump will have a strong economy after his performance his first term. This will lead to social unrest and his handling of problems will generate at least one scandal. I don’t think he has the ability to create a solution in Israel, Palestine, or Ukraine, so there will not be any major foreign policy or military successes due to him, though there will likely be at least one failure.

Neither Trump nor JD Vance are charismatic.

It will be challenging for Republicans to win in 2028.

I’m also modifying the keys slightly to not be actual economic indicators but the perception of the economy. If more people perceive the economy is doing poorly, this matters more than actual economic performance. When we flip these keys for Harris in 2024 to what people perceived, do not give her a key for a non-existent foreign policy success, and BBB did not make any major permanent changes to US code aside from a lot of pork barrel spending, I realize she had 8 false keys.

The Republican media operation to make people perceive the economy as doing poorly combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the support of the Republican party was successful in terms of getting Trump back into office.

It has never mattered before economic perception vs. reality because in the past they have been aligned strongly, but in our highly fractious media environment, and with social media spreading nonsense regularly, many people are not exposed to real data anymore and this is reflected in their extremist politics. This was not an issue when people read actual newspapers. But now it is.

So if Trump gets his way and we have the Trump tariffs during his presidency this will cause him to flip two keys to false immediately and permanently. He will not repeal his tariffs once they are in place. This will cause the economy to stutter.

The best we can hope for is Trump puts his tariffs in place this year, this burns up his political capital preventing him from doing further legislative damage. The impact on the economy will be severely negative, leading to his struggle to get anything else done.

I doubt the Republicans will win in 2028, unless if Democrats run a New Democrat, in which it will be a tossup.

Doubt me? Remember President Gore, President Kerry, and President Hillary Clinton?