Free transit for King County now!

Sawant calls for free transit during Viadoom — could it work?

We all know that once people get used to not paying $104 a month for a monthly pass and then more for peak hours that it will be very difficult to make it extremely expensive again. On top of that, the easiest way to increase transit usage is to make transit free so people who might not necessarily use it every day will be more inclined to use it a few times a month. Multiply that by 2 million people for just King County and that is not an insignificant amount of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide etc. being blasted into the air we breathe. It will encourage people who visit the metro area from outside to park at the closest transit stop, or take the train to Seattle because they won’t have to pay a minimum of $5 per day per person to go to Seattle, assuming no transfers. That amount adds up and can quickly become more expensive than parking. This is a common sense reform which will make our state more livable.

Design a Carbon Tax Now! Or, how to make a more efficient legislature to solve our problems.

Abstract

Thoughts on how to design a more effective legislature to solve important issues like global warming by using ranked voting.

Introduction

It is now 2019. We are about to start the legislative session with the largest Democratic Majority in Washington State for 70 years, and if we are ever going to get progress done in our state, now is the time.

This means we need to do it right, there are multiple issues plagueing our state. The 5 which most concern me are:

  1. The lack of any policy to reduce carbon emissions
  2. First Past The Post Voting
  3. Insufficient transit in the Seattle Metro Area
  4. Underfunded schools at every level.
  5. The most regressive tax structure in the United States of America.
  6. Police brutality in Washington is in the 13th highest in the nation

Now, when the legislature convenes on 14 January we are going to need to get a lot of progress done. The budget is going to be on the minds of every legislator, and it is going to effect everyone in our state, every agency, and every issue. We are going to need to make big decisions in the next thirty days which are going to have immense consequences for everyone in our state.

One issue which stymies progress is literally everyone has their own agenda and what they believe should be done first. Historically this has a history of people blocking other proposals which are related to theirs because they are not identical in some way.

This is immature, destructive, and hurts everyone in our state. We need a better politics to solve problems effectively and efficiently. My education makes me believe that ranked voting has one answer. A fairly strong speaker of the house is another answer, though not as preferable.

Now, in the most ideal world where everyone was working for the greater good, this wouldn’t be an issue. But, news flash, we don’t live in a world remotely similar to that world. Shocker, right?

Ranked voting to design bills

A way to do this would be to have legislators propose general topics, and have them consolidated into one list by the leadership of the legislature and the next day have every legislator from each house would vote on the issues by importance using ranked voting. The votes would be tallied within minutes and then would go down the list from the most important to least important in terms of how bills would be proposed to the chamber. The obvious advantage to this is every legislator has a say in the priorities, and have literally no incentive to block legislation because it isn’t their pet project first. There would be some granularity to this, so a carbon tax would be separate from a potential income or capital gains tax, etc. which would give the first issue priority. The budget would not be on the list because it is going to be negotiated regardless and the content is already proposed by the governor. I wouldn’t touch that process because the state budgets are so sweeping. From that point the bills from each house of the legislature would be proposed in the order which every member already had a say in, meaning it will be fairly democratic. They have an incentive to get them through the first step quickly, because that lets them get onto other proposals. At that point they will all go through the normal committee/public hearing process which already exists.

But then there is another issue which is that the bills proposed will be presented by both houses and you could end up with major issues between the two issues. This slows the process down and is inefficient at providing real solutions. A way to solve this from the beginning so we don’t end up with 3 or more bills doing similar things in contradictory ways is that every member of the legislature votes on issues and which pieces to include in the bills as one body in the first week using ranked voting. The votes of every Senator could be worth twice the votes of every Representatives to keep it proportional (in the case of how the Washington State Legislature is structured, since there are twice as many representatives as senators) and they would vote together on how to construct the proposals from the beginning. This gives every bill the highest likelihood of success, guaranteeing every piece of the bill has majority support before it is even compiled.

In the case of a carbon tax, there are several pieces to it:

  1. How much will the tax start at?
  2. How much and in what way will the tax change over time? (linear vs. exponential vs. flat)
  3. Who/what is exempted from the bill?
  4. Where does the money go?

Every other tax will work in a somewhat similar way, an income tax would look like so:

  1. How much will the tax be? Will it be done by brackets or a smooth function? How much will different income levels pay?
  2. What will be exempt?
  3. Will the tax change over time?
  4. Where does the money go?

An expenditure bill would work like so:

  1. How much money is the legislature willing to spend on this project?
  2. How should the money be distributed?

This would solve the issues I have seen above, and probably make for a more efficient legislative session with less infighting, because everyone has already had a say on the year’s most important pieces of legislation before it is even written. Once the vote is done it would take only a couple days for a few professionals to write the bill out the way the legislators wanted. At that point, it should be fairly easy to get good legislation done quickly, solving the problems which plague our state.

The advantage to this method over a strong speaker is the power is spread evenly between every member of the legislature. This gives as close to a guarantee as I can figure out that they have majority approval before they even go to committee, without free riders which the majority of legislators and citizens oppose. If a legislator was obstinate about not getting exactly what they want on a regular basis they can always be censured by the legislature, for acting on bad faith, and could potentially cost them their seat in the next election. This would be made even easier by having ranked voting for all elections in our state.

  1. Legislators propose topics for legislation
  2. Legislators choose which topics are the most important
  3. Legislators vote on which specific proposals should be enacted for each topic. Proposals will be done with ranked voting. Complimentary proposals would both be included if they have majority support.
  4. Bills are presented to the legislature, use our existing process, guaranteeing every section has majority support.

Ranked Voting for Elections

Ranked voting will make a better politic for our state (and eventually country) because we will no longer have a two party system given time. More liberal Democrats will split from more centrist Democrats, and the Fascist Tea Party will split from Eisenhower Republicans. This will mean that members of one party who do not accurately represent their constituents will have a real challenger in the general election. This will give a more accurate representation of what people in our state want to have happen. This will benefit everybody. The top two system is better than party primaries, but still does not guarantee an accurate representation the way single transferable vote does.

Conclusion

By using ranked voting for both designing policies and electing our elected officials we should be more able to solve the problems plaguing our state, our country and our world. It should eliminate waste, corruption, and encourage legislators to focus on solving the very real problems facing our world.

Use economics to make life decisions

Data available

Life insurance

Is life insurance a good deal? Dave Ramsey sells it, and certainly thinks it is a good idea. He is opposed to Whole Life Insurance, and I agree with him there. Life insurance pays out in the case of the death of the policy holder, for the amount you claim. If you don’t die in the term, you lose 100% of your money. If you miss a payment, your policy is cancelled, and you lose 100% of your money.

You are literally betting you will die in the term specified by the life insurance. It is truly one of the most cheerful of economic instruments.

With this in mind, here are the numbers for someone with my height and weight in my zip code (your numbers will vary) who doesn’t use drugs:

Mid-20s

Age: 26
Term: 30 years
Limit: $1,000,000
Monthly payment: $51.93

Total payments: $18,694

Probability of death: 1:15

ACTUAL VALUE: $66,666

Stock market value (assuming average S&P 500 yield which is 8% annually, compounded monthly): $72,626.82

Local Bond yield (assuming a 6% return annually, compounded monthly): $50,309

Don’t buy. The stock market will give you a better return than your expected value weighting for the probability of death. If you don’t, then you will fit into the next category for your renewal policy. This life insurance policy is better than local bonds however, but significantly more risky because you have a 100% loss if you don’t die, losing the down payment on a house for no benefit.

Middle aged

Age: 56
Term: 30 years
Limit: $1,000,000
Monthly payment: $556
Total payments: $200,160
Probability of death: 50%
ACTUAL VALUE: $500,000
Stock market value: $777,595
Local bond yield: $538,651

Don’t buy, the stock market is still a better value for your money. Even municipal bonds are a better investment.

These all assume you are perfectly healthy. In both cases the expected value of life insurance is a worse deal than a standard index fund. Life insurance is an extremely risky bet for a number of reasons:

  1. If you don’t die you take a 100% loss on every dollar you spent.
  2. The return once you factor in risk is not as good as it seems without calculating your probability of death.

My recommendation is to start an investment account with Acorns for the same amount you would put into a life insurance policy, because it is significantly less risky (you would only lose all your money in the case of economic Armageddon, whereas with life insurance it is all but guaranteed) and gives a good return compared to other accounts.

Older Senior

If you are lucky enough to live to be 84 in this case, what is your probability? the calculator does not give rates for people over 85. It also limits me to whole life and $40,000 for this scenario.

Age: 84
Term: Whole Life
Limit: $40,000
Monthly payment: $683
Time until stock market matches limit: 4 years 3 months
Time until municipal bonds match limit: 4 years 5 months

Life insurance makes absolutely no sense for seniors to purchase under any circumstances.

References:
http://www.candidmoney.com/calculators/death-probability-calculator
https://www.policygenius,com/life-insurance

Buy a House

One of the biggest decisions in life you can make is to buy a house, it is a long-term asset, and means you never need to pay rent again. But, is it worth it?

If you were to rent out a room in a house, you should expect to pay between $600 and $1000 per month, to live in a shared living situation. This will cost between $7200 and $12,000 per year.

If you were to buy a $200,000 house, you would first take out a mortgage for that amount. You can expect to pay $946 per month for 30 months with a 3.92% interest rate under this system, for a total payment of $340,427.

The obvious advantage of buying a house is that if you move you can sell your house, or rent it out for income, and this means that you can recover the majority of what you spent.

However, this is still not accurate because a home equity line of credit is a better deal still. A Home Equity Line of Credit is going to save you money by putting all of your income into your line of credit when you receive it and then withdraw the money from the home equity line of credit for your monthly expenses. You can further reduce your monthly payments by purchasing on a credit card and then paying off monthly from your line of credit. Do this for two reasons,

  1. Credit cards only charge you on the balance you carry over monthly. If you pay off monthly, you do not pay interest on that card.
  2. You get rewards for using a credit card, if you get the right one. In my experience, airline credit cards offer the best value.
  3. By only withdrawing from your line of credit at the end of the month you reduce your interest owed on your line of credit, saving you years of your life and tens of thousands of dollars.

If you were to do this, on a $200,000 home equity line of credit, with the same 3.92% interest rate, with $4000 of income per month, withdrawing $2000 for your cost of living (this includes everything) you will pay off your mortgage in 11.5 years and spend $41,582 in interest, for a total payment of $241,582.

The best part of all is that after you are done paying your HELOC off, it continues as a line of credit, increasing your credit score.

Also, by using credit cards to reduce interest owed on your HELOC you have saved thousands of dollars, as long as you pay them off monthly. All of this goes to increase your credit score by having multiple accounts with large balances with constantly reducing your percentage of credit used. This works as long as you pay off your cards monthly and stick to the plan.

On the other hand, if you were to take out a $200,000 mortgage as I outlined above you would have spent $340,427.

You can pay more on your HELOC because you can withdraw later if needed, only paying your 3% interest rate as opposed to a 20% credit card interest rate (unless if you have American Express, which is lower). If you had only left the same $946 per month on your Home Equity Line of Credit you would have paid $335,035. This won’t save you much money, but it is still better than a mortgage, saving you $5000. Paying off as much as possible every month is the best deal, and you will not receive fees for doing so.

If you were to rent a room however for that thirty year period (at $750 per month), it would cost you $270,000, and you would have no equity.

Buying a house with a home equity line of credit is obviously the best option.

Buy an annuity

The stock market is too risky you say. You don’t feel good about real estate investing. Some slick financier comes to you and says “buy an annuity from me.”

Should you?

I ran some numbers on Charles Schwab:
If I get myself a $2000 monthly income annuity starting on December 16, 2057, I would have to pay $96,434 in my premium for a guarantee for the rest of my life.

If I have 30 years of retirement than I would receive $720,000 of income in today’s money for paying $96,434. This is about the same amount of money as I would receive if I had just taken $2000 per month out of a retirement account where I had deposited the same $206.06 per month for the next 39 years. HOWEVER, when I die at 95 in 2087 after investing in the stock market I would have almost $3 million saved up ON TOP OF the amount that I had already withdrawn for my living expenses, which I could do with as I please.

Or I could just give those three million dollars to a major multinational bank with an annuity. Guaranteed income… for the bank.

Stock market too risky? Then you could also put your money into municipal bonds, but you will not make enough interest to cover your payments to force you to drain your account by the time you are 95, leaving you with only $100,000 at 95 years old. Going only into municipal bonds is foolish.

You will definitely get the money for life in an annuity, but the return is millions of dollars less than you would make by having a diversified stock portfolio.

If you die early, you would need to pay more upfront for the privilege of getting your money back. Otherwise, the bank takes the cake. How nice of you.

Given the medical advancements which continue in today’s world, I do not think this is a good idea. It does not beat a diversified portfolio in the long run.

My Uncle Wayne died last April at the age of 101. My Onkel Jurgen died at the age of 104 last year. My Auntie Gloria died two weeks ago at the age of 97, the xlast of my great-great aunts. Getting a 20 year guarantee would cost me a lot for no benefit (in all likelihood) and I would probably lose money (taking into account opportunity cost) with an annuity.

A diversified index fund is a better deal.

Divide between stocks and bonds

50/50 split each year, withdrawal from each account

Is it a better idea to move from stocks to bonds in retirement? Is this going to reduce your risk? It will certainly reduce your standard deviation, but this is NOT THE SAME THING AS RISK!

The attached spreadsheet makes this clear. If you put the money you would have spent on that annuity into a diversified index fund, you will hit $2 million in your 100th year and your municipal bond fund will be in the red, assuming you take half of your withdrawals from each account, and deposit half in each account. Sounds like a deal to you?

For comparison, in a diversified stock fund you will hit $4 million in your 100th year.

Sound like a deal to you?

Move money from stock account to bond account after 65

Everything is the same until your 65th birthday, as in all of your money goes into a diversified stock portfolio

Another “safe” strategy is to move money from your stock account to your bond account after your 65th birthday. Let’s say you do this, and you move half of your monthly interest from your stock account to your bond account for “safety”.

Keep in mind that you will retire with half a million when you retire at 65 regardless, and this is from paying only $206 per month each year you work, the same amount the annuity required.

When you turn 100 you will be $807,210.36 short of where you would have been if you had just kept your money in the stock market in your retirement.

Does that sound safe to you?

Keep in mind in the case of economic Armageddon, bond yields will drop to nothing as well.

Learn economics

The stock market is the best investment out there today, as long as you have it through a diversified index fund.

But, let’s say you want to fully understand how to prevent risk? The best way to do this is to learn economics. In order to do this, make sure you study the following before you start:

  1. Calculus 1 and 2
  2. College level Statistics

Economic models which are necessary to understand these concepts are built on these three classes more than anything else.

Then, do the following:

  1. Microeconomic
  2. Macroeconomics

If you are enjoying this so far, continue with these four classes (which I find to be the most useful day in and day out)

  1. Intermediate Microeconomics (how the microeconomic model is derived)
  2. Intermediate Macroeconomics (Solow model)
  3. Economics of Money and Banking
  4. Public Finance, understand how government budgets work and interact with the economy.

This is how you understand the market to ensure you can make good decisions. Ensure you know calculus, statistics, and the first two microeconomics and macroeconomics courses. These provide you with the tools you need to be able to at least tell which economists on TV are telling the truth and which are liars.

There are three podcasts I highly recommend to learn, and that people should follow, those are Planet Money and the Indicator by NPR and Freakonomics. Freakonomics is longer than Planet Money in terms of each episode. The Indicator is nice because it is always about 5 minutes long, and covers a different topic every day. They have guests who are PhD economists, and are together with some introductory courses in micro and macroeconomics an excellent way to get started in the field.

This is one investment which will definitely be good for your financial future. High-quality education is always worthwhile.

After you learn these introductory concepts, you will be prepared to do the calculations I did above, saving yourself millions of dollars.

Non-contradicotry proposals

Economists usually say this:

  • Don’t bail out the banks, that’s bad. Let them survive in a free market as they demand.
  • Please don’t bail out big companies.
  • Please make it easier to start a business.
  • Everyone should have the right to own their work.
  • Please don’t collectivize everything, that’s happened before, it didn’t work. 
  • Private industry is good.

But we also usually say:

  • We hate Comcast, they over charge and provide lackluster service. ISPs should be run by the public sector.
  • Nationalize the railways!
  • Public parks are wonderful!
  • Health care must be available to all! 

These follow a few basic values which most of us hold dear, and those are that quality of life is the ultimate goal of society. Make a more equitable and wealthier society without compromising the environment. Holding these three goals in tangent creates these basic ideas as generally accepted ideas. Studying over two centuries has made these 10 points understandable. The 4 places where I list things we think the government should have a large role are natural monopolies, or have monopolistic tendencies (such as medicine), and hence in order to increase quantity provided only a government can provide those 4 services.

More importantly, looking at the economy through a monoscopic lens of “government good, private industry bad” or “government bad, private industry good” misses the point entirely. the ultimate goal, to increase the quality of life for everybody doesn’t fit neatly into such one dimensional boxes. But a more detailed understanding of political theory and morality which is truly multidimensional (rich, equitable, sustainable) suggests policies which if fully implemented would truly make the world a better place.

    Proposal to expand Schengen

    The Schengen Treaty is without a doubt one of the most important treaties in the world. It comprises 26 states, most of which are members of the European Union, have a GDP of $15 trillion and a population of 419 million people. People are free to move within this area, they can live and work in any other member state, as there are no customs whatsoever between any of these countries. Most members are EU members, with a few exceptions, Iceland, Liechstenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, and Vatican City.
    The Schengen Area
    This is the pure liberal dream. The idea is that without trade barriers between these countries that people will have less of a desire to go to war with others. And it has worked along with the free trade area which has grown out of the European Coal and Steel Community which was founded in the 1950s. Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, and Romania are currently pending the next council meeting.

    The question now is, should Schengen be expanded, and if it is, how? As the title of this article suggests, I am in favor of expansion. The Schengen Treaty, as a legal document presents very clear rules on what is to move in between borders. The bulk of the laws are included in section 1, under the 14 June 1985 convention. The rules are laid out in the following titles as follows in this convention:

    1. Definitions
    2. Abolition of Checks at Internal Borders and Movement of Persons
      1. Crossing Internal Borders
      2. Crossing External Borders
      3. Visas
        1. Short-Stay Visas
        2. Long-Stay Visas
      4. Conditions Governing the Movement of Aliens
      5. Residence Permits and Alerts for the Purposes of Refusing Entry
      6. Accompanying Measures
      7. Responsibility for Processing Applications for Asylum
    3. Police and Security
      1. Police Cooperation
      2. Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters
      3. Application of the Ne Bis In Idem Principle (No double jeopardy)
      4. Extradition
      5. Transfer of the Enforcement of Criminal Judgements
      6. Narcotic Drugs
      7. Firearms and Ammunition
    4. Schengen Information System
      1. Establishment of the Schengen Information System
      2. Operation and Use of the Schengen Information System
      3. Protection of Personal Data and Security of Data in the Schengen Information System
      4. Apportionment of the Costs of the Schengen Information System
    5. Transport and Movement of Goods
    6. Protection of Personal Data
    7. Executive Committee
    8. Final Provisions

      All of the laws and regulations are already in existence already, and the rules for Schengen are really straight forward and reasonable. Basically, control the borders, Mutual recognition of each other’s visas, police need to cooperate and respect the laws and decisions of other countries in the area, sharing of information between countries when it comes to visa relevant information, a common tariff policy, don’t leak data, and each member has a seat in the executive committee. That’s the entire agreement in a nutshell.

      There is also, notably, no requirement of a country to be in the European Union or even Europe to join the Schengen Area in the original document. This means, theoretically, that the Schengen Area could be expanded to outside Europe if I am not missing another law which regards Schengen membership. This seems to be the case because Switzerland joined in 2008, and it is not a member of the EU, and Liechtenstein joined in 2011 after the Treaty of Lisbon, the last major amendment to European law. This means that non-member states can indeed join the Schengen area.

      The question then becomes… who should be included? Prospective countries to join the Schengen treaty could be established by fitting the following criteria in my mind:

      1. Adopt the European Charter of Rights and Freedoms as law, or have comparable laws on the books already.
      2. Have a Corruption Perceptions Index at least as high as the Schengen member with the lowest score.
      3. Have a better Press Freedom Index then the member state with the lowest score. This is a useful proxy for how well the Charter of Rights and Freedoms are respected.
      4. Have an economic system which makes it easy for businesses to flourish, using the Ease of Doing Business Index. We want the member country to be fully engaged in the common market.
      5. Have no significant domestic terrorism. This can be measured by homicide rate.

      These are 5 things which can easily be implemented.

      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Corruption_Perception_index_2017.svg
      Corruption Perceptions Index

      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e7/Press_freedom_2018.svg
      Press Freedom Index

      The Schengen member with the highest (worst) Corruptions Perception Index currently is Greece, at 44. they ranked #69 in the world as of 2017, which leaves 43 potential members by that metric.

      The Schengen member with the highest press freedom score currently is still Greece, though Bulgaria will likely acede soon and it has the worst score, but they will likely not be chosen due to the factors which cause them to fare so poorly on the press freedom index, so that leaves Greece as the lowest score. They rank #70 in the world as of 2018 (yes, these are significantly correlated indexes) and that again leaves 44 potential members by this metric.

      The obvious choices for membership by these two metrics combined are:

      1. New Zealand
      2. Canada
      3. United Kingdom
      4. Australia
      5. United States
      6. Ireland
      7. Japan
      8. Uruguay
      9. Chile
      10. Taiwan
      11. Botswana
      12. Cape Verde
      13. Costa Rica
      14. Georgia
      15. Cyprus
      16. Mauritius
      17. South Korea
      18. Namibia
      19. Croatia
      20. Romania
      21. Senegal
      22. South Africa
      23. Suriname

      This map is interesting for many reasons. Following this logic there are countries which are qualified to join the Schengen Area using my first two criteria on every continent. Some countries which have expressed interest are missing from the map, Israel is blank because their press isn’t free enough, Bulgaria is blank despite being considered to join the Schengen area because they are too corrupt,  Ukraine is both too corrupt and their press is not free enough.

      The one other variable which could be useful in determining whether a country would be able to join the Schengen Area would be the Ease of Doing Business Indicator. The reason for this one is the acquis on the free movement of capital, and if a country doesn’t allow ease of movement of capital within its own borders it will not be able to join Schengen. This significantly reduces the number of countries which are eligible to join down to 17 prime candidates. The economies of Botswana, Cape Verde, Namibia, Senegal, Suriname, and Uruguay are less free than that of Malta, the Schengen member with the least free economy, which means that the best candidates for joining the Schengen map looks like this:

      Every country shaded in red on this list has a Corruptions Perceptions Index, Press Freedom Index, and Ease of Doing Business Index ranking better than the worst performer currently in the Schengen region.

      The top performer not currently in Schengen currently is New Zealand when you multiply the CPI, DBI and divide by the PFI. The order of this ranking follows as Canada, Australia, Ireland, United Kingdom, Costa Rica, United States, Taiwan, Chile, Cyprus, Japan, South Korea, Georgia, Mauritius, Romania, South Africa, and then Croatia. If the current member states of the Schengen Area and these 17 countries chose to unify their customs into the Schengen area this would be mutually beneficial.

      The countries which would most benefit from joining would honestly be the United States and Canada. With the world’s longest border, highly developed economies and being among the most free in the world, we could benefit in joining.

      Another factor when it comes to opening up your borders to another country is safety. This is easily measured using homicide rate as a rough approximation of the relative safety of one country or another. Three countries unfortunately have homicide rates which the European Union will likely find unacceptable, and those are Costa Rica, South Africa, and my home, the USA. The country with the highest murder rate in the Schengen area is Lithuania with a homicide rate of 5.25 people per 100,000. The United States unfortunately has a homicide rate of 5.35 meaning if the Schengen Area would not allow new members due to an intentional homicide rate we are just above the threshold.

      This problem deserves special attention because we are so close to having a low enough murder rate to qualify for Schengen Membership, if this was a qualifier. Looking at murder rates by states and territories, the ones which have a higher murder rate than Lithuania are in descending murder rate (by latest available data): Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Maryland, Arkansas, Alaska, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, South Carolina, Tennessee, New Mexico, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Reference

      This deserves an article of its own, and we need to focus on reducing our murder rate as a country.

      This still leaves 14 countries around the world which have the proper statistics to join the Schengen travel area, from every continent. These 14 have low corruption, and are safe. Schengen is estimated to boost the trade and economics of the member states, and there is overwhelming economic evidence that increasing trade reduces the likelihood of war. For these reasons I believe it would be wise for the Schengen Treaty to be expanded outside of Europe, the UK and Ireland should join Schengen (which I know is unlikely due to the whole Brexit debacle) because it is the logical next step to fostering peace in the world we live in.

      Countries which could theoretically join Schengen.

      Election 2018 Recap and future elections

      It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It set the victory, it set the failure. The beginning came at the same time as the end, and for totally different reasons.

      What a night. This was one of the most exciting elections I have ever seen, with several major victories, and major losses as well.

      The headline in the New York Times tomorrow will undoubtedly be Democrats take the House, but the sub-headline should read, Democrats also take 4 additional trifectas, and lose two key Senate races by less than 100,000 votes.

      Needless to say, there were some major victories tonight for the Democratic Party. Taking the House is no laughing matter. But, when the President has been under investigation for a full 2 years, his policies are wildly out of line with what the majority of Americans believe, and Americans are being turned away from the polls because they literally don’t have enough ballots for everyone (but only in minority precincts), or simply can’t wait 4 or more hours in a line to go to the polls,  we know that there were people who tried to vote but didn’t have their voice heard, and that did swing the election in several really important ways tonight.

      When it comes to the Senate:

      • Florida, one state which we know has been merging precincts and under preparing their polling places for the numbers of people in their precincts, had their Senate race came within 60,000 votes. This is a crime, and is one place the Democratic Party or Eric Holder when he was Attorney General needed to bring the state and Republican Party to court for violating the rights of Americans.
      • Texas deliberately confused voters in order to suppress the vote. https://www.revealnews.org/blog/texass-voter-id-law-is-confusing-voters-into-disenfranchising-themselves/ and then their senate seat came within 200,000 votes, in a state with 28 million people.
      • Arizona made it hard for citizens to vote as well, and their election is being extremely close. The final numbers are not in as I write this article. It is going to be very close, and still undetermined.

       These three states will likely give the Republicans a 54 seat majority as opposed to a potential 52 seat majority if people had been able to vote.

        The Governor’s races were even worse:

        • Stacey Abrams voters in Georgia were very clearly discriminated against tonight, Kemp has a 3% lead on her, and will likely be elected governor. Voter suppression is one Southern tradition which refuses to die.
        • In Ohio, voter purging among other issues significantly reduced turnout for tonight’s election. DeWine will win with just over 50% of the vote. He will have the veto pen over redistricting about 18 seats for the House after the 2020 census.
        • Iowa has seen neither candidate get a majority in a classic spoiler effect.
        • Florida: With massive voter suppression, the Republican is squeaking ahead with a minority of the vote. He will have the veto pen over the redistricting over 27 seats in the Census for the 2020 Census.
        • Surprising no one, Alaska is now a Republican Trifecta. This was their biggest gain of the night, besides damage control. This was basically unavoidable.

          However, there were many bright spots:

          • Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer won! This is a huge step in the right direction, and will prevent Michigan from being gerrymandered in the 2020.
          • Nevada: We won the governor’s race, picking up a trifecta.
          • Wisconsin: Scott Walker is gone! Good riddance.
          • Kansas has a Democratic governor again.
          • New Mexico is a brand new Trifecta.
          • Nevada is a brand new Trifecta.
          • Maine is a brand new Trifecta.
          • Illinois is a brand new Trifecta.

          The worst thing of all about these races for the Senate and Governor’s races is that literally every single one of the close Republican victories coinciding with voter suppression has no-excuse absentee voting. We need to get minority voters registered to vote absentee in every state, but particularly on these states where there votes collectively will swing. Not just that, but in every one of these states they can permanently register as a no-excuse absentee voter, meaning they will never have to sit in line again. We should have been doing this aggressively since all of these laws were passed, and this needs to be talked about a lot more. The Democrats basically gave all of these vital positions to the Republicans by not bringing them to court for violating the VRA and not working as hard as possible to get people registered to vote absentee to counter their voter discrimination.

          At the state legislative level, some good news:

          • Washington: Democrats picked up a seat in the Senate, and 7 more in the House.
          • Minnesota: Democrats took the House, we are literally one seat in the Senate from a trifecta in Minnesota now.
          • Michigan: we had some gains in both houses, and with the governorship we can now degerrymander. The 2020s will be a Democratic decade for Michigan. Republicans are still in control of the legislature, but Whitmer will veto any gerrymandered district map, making Michigan competitive 4 years from today.
          • New Hampshire: Democrats picked up the State House, breaking yet another Republican Trifecta.

          And one piece of bad news:

          • Republicans picked up a trifecta in Alaska, taking the Senate and the governorship.

          When we entered this election cycle, Democrats had 8 trifectas and Republicans held 26. Starting in January Democrats will have 14 trifectas and Republicans will have 23. The ability to push progressive legislation at the state level has now increased significantly in those 5 new trifectas (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, New York, and Maine) which will give us an opportunity to make new progressive bills to benefit the United States on many issues.

          In summary, the main takeaway points are:

          • Taking the House of Representatives for the first time in a decade is a historic event. We can have a full investigation into Trump which will significantly cripple his political power and potentially send him to prison for election manipulation.
          • Democrats made several very important improvements by taking the governorships of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Kansas, Maine, and Illinois.
          • Democrats gained trifectas in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, New York, and Maine.
          • Democrats broke Republican trifectas in Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
          • Republicans gained a Trifecta in Alaska.
          • Democrats won more overall votes for the Governors which were up for election, and almost certainly won more votes for the House as well. This does not bode well for Trump.

          This means that Democrats can make improvements in the states they gained trifectas in, such as:

          • Universal mail in voting to ensure people are able to vote, or at a bare minimum so anyone can opt in to a mail in ballot.
          • Ensure those states are not gerrymandered after the census in 2 years at a bare minimum. Ideally push for proportional representation.
          • Guarantee health coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.
          • Improve local transit and AMTRAK.
          • Reduce the cost of college.
          • Fully fund our schools, and make curricula which are better than what we have currently.
          • Implement more progressive tax codes and push for EITC like plans at the state level, which significantly help working class families.

          Local Washington State Analysis:

          The results are not complete yet, but there are currently several sitting Republicans who might be kicked out of office. The Democrats are guaranteed a majority, but the question is by how much. Half of the Senate is up,  they hold office for 4 years. Every Representative is up for election. Here are the seats which might be flipping:

          • 5th LD (East King County): Two House seats could be pickups for the Democrats.
          • 6th LD (Spokane County): There is a dead heat between Dave Wilson (D)  and Jenny Graham (R) for the House, it could go either way as late ballots come in. Graham is ahead by 295 votes as of this morning. Currently held by a Republican.
          • 10th LD: Dave Paul (D) leads Dave Hayes (R) by 367 votes for the House. Currently held by a Republican.
          • 19th LD: Dead heat between Erin Frasier (D) and Jim Walsh (R) for the House. Currently held by Walsh.
          • 26th LD (Gig Harbor): Emily Randall (D) leads Mary McClendon (R) by 423 votes for the Senate. Currently Republican
          • 28th LD (Fort Lewis/McChord): Mari Leavitt (D) leads incumbent Dick Muri by 676 votes.
          • 35th LD (Mason County): The Republicans are all ahead by at least 1000 votes as of right now. (Tim Sheldon has caucused with the Republicans)
          • 42nd LD (Whatcom County): All three races are in a dead heat right now and could go either way.
          • 47th LD (Auburn): Joe Fain (R) leads by 90 votes. Mark Hargrove (R) will likely be replaced.
          • 48th LD (Redmond): Patty Kuderer leads Rodney Tom and will win. Rodney Tom caucused with the Republicans.

          What this means for 2020 and 2022

          Senate

          The Senate was basically a complete clusterfuck. The Republicans should have 52 seats, but they won 54 because of voter discrimination. There are going to be 4 or 5 seats which we can pick up fairly easily in 2020 in Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, and Georgia. If we get lucky we might be able to pick up West Virginia and North Carolina as well. This means I expect that the Republicans will have probably a maximum of 51 seats after the 2020 election where Democrats pick up Iowa, Maine, and Colorado. The odds of this go up significantly if we have massive campaigns to get voters registered to vote absentee in those 5 states, all of which currently have no-excuse absentee voting to counter their voter suppression. In the very best case scenario where we pick them all up we could have 53 seats in total, and a Trifecta.

          What is horrible about this is that without an aggressive ground game to register as many voters as possible as absentee before this election is we could have almost guarantee to have had a Trifecta in 2021 if we had taken Arizona and Florida this week. But because the Democratic Party did not make a major point to register as many people as possible as absentee (because the odds are very much in our favor when it comes to values) before this week’s election the chance of having a Trifecta in 2021 is almost null. There were many factors which played in, but the lack of a ground game in those states to get people to become absentee, with phone banking and knocking on doors was the clincher because it would have been so easy to set it up.

          House

          This will be the last election with districts based on the 2010 census. I expect we will have a small majority because after Trump and co. are going to trial the Republicans will be at a major disadvantage. Reduced gerrymandering in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania due to this week’s gubernatorial elections will make the 2020s a lot easier to get Democrats elected to the House. Not having the governorships of Ohio and Florida will make it harder than it needs to be.

          Governors

          We will probably lose Louisiana next year.

          I predict few changes in 2020 for the Governor races. We might be able to pick up Vermont and New Hampshire, and will potentially lose North Carolina. But, North Carolina has no-excuse absentee voting which can counter any voter disenfranchisement, giving us an advantage in North Carolina.

          In 2022 the same governors who were elected will be up again. This will be our chance to take Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa. We might be able to get Massachusetts and Maryland as well. These will be won by ensuring voters have access to voting. We will probably lose Kansas.

          In the best probable scenario, I predict that in 2023 Democrats will be able to pick up Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Vermont, on top of keeping most of the states we picked up this year, specifically New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine. This will mean 12 more states will have Democratic Governors in 2023 for a total of the 16 we currently have, for 28 in total and a majority of the population of the United States. The stretch goal will be Texas given the slim margin in the Senate this week between O’Rourke and Cruz, especially given changing demographics.

          President

          Oh yeah, the President. If the election had been held this week, Trump would have lost to almost any candidate. His approval rating is negative in states representing over half the votes of the electoral college. He will likely be the first one term president in 28 years (since George H.W. Bush) due to his sinking popularity and scandals. Democrats only need to pick up Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to win. Registering as many voters as possible to vote absentee in Florida, Georgia, and Ohio will significantly help ensure that Trump is a one term president, which given his actions on a wide variety of issues.

          The final question is who will be the candidate. Kamala Harris is leading the betting pools right now right behind Donald Trump, with Beto O’Rourke leading  right behind her, and I expect that once the field narrows the Democrat will be on top of the betting pool yet again. Despite this Elizabeth Warren is leading the Democratic Nominee. I highly doubt Joe Biden will run. I would be happy with anyone of these three likely candidates to run, any one of them will easily defeat Trump, and I will support any one of them. My biggest bet is on Kamala Harris right now, given she has a trip booked to Iowa already, and she is very good at her job and would be a fantastic president. She will have no trouble defeating Putin, I mean Trump.

          The biggest thing the Democratic Party can do right now to ensure that they win in 2020 is to register voters to vote absentee in (decreasing importance): Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Georgia.

          Absentee ballot information:

          • Georgia (you must register within 180 days of each election): http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/absentee_voting_in_georgia
          • Florida: https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/vote-by-mail/
          • Ohio (You must register for an absentee ballot for each election): https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/voters/absentee-voting/#gref

          These are the most important states for the Senate, but for any other state just search “ absentee ballot application” on Google to see the rules for your particular state. Most states have this option available. 8 states and DC also allow permanent absentee status. The NCSL has all of the information on the options for your state.

          Final takeaway:

          It is  not time for compromise. It is not time for backing down. There are serious problems in this country which need to be fixed, and Americans voted in Democrats looking for solutions to problems which plague our lives. Student loans with poor job prospects, the dream that we can get health care in our own country, high quality cities with good transportation, and for the love of God, I can’t believe I have to say it in the United States, lead free water. My generation is both extremely angry and extremely optimistic. We have not given up on democracy, we believe very strongly in it. We voted this year, we elected Democrats, and we are going to hold their feet to the fire. I am going to lobby as much as I possibly to make sure we make progress, and get the change that our country needs. I am going to try to work with the Democratic party to make plans to eliminate voter discrimination, enforce the law, and ensure that our votes count. The fact Republicans took the Governorship of Florida significantly hurts our chances of maintaining our majority in the house after redistricting. This is a serious issue, and it must be dealt with.

          But for now, don’t get complacent, there is much work to be done. We have opportunities to make a big difference now, and now we, the people, need to work to pressure our legislators to do the change we voted for. 2020 is going to be the year we retake the Presidency and maybe the Senate. The 2020s will be bright.

          Keep fighting.

            Winning strategy 2018 and 2020 for the Democratic Party

            2018 is going to be a pivotal year in American politics. The Governors which are elected this year will be able to veto gerrymandered maps following the 2020 census, meaning that the impact of this year will be felt for a minimum of a decade. Being able to take a slight majority in the Senate (getting back to the maximum of 60 seats of 2009-2010 is going to be impossible right now) is going to significantly reduce the power of Donald Trump, protecting America from his homophobic, sexist, racist, and inequality driving policies.

            The most important elections this year are without a doubt the local city, county, and state level elections. 87 out of 99 State legislatures are up for election this year, either in full, or in part. Granted, there is a lot of gerrymandering nationwide, but with Trump’s approval rating and being accused of federal crimes by his top staff of his campaign team, it is going to be a very hard year for the Republicans. Every person who chooses to run as a Republican this year needs to answer for the President’s behavior, and why they choose to associate themselves with someone whose presidency is failing in a way we haven’t seen since Richard Nixon. This gives the Democrats a massive advantage.

            But, merely running as the anti-Trump party won’t be enough, because once Trump is gone we will need to have something to show that we stand for, not just against. We can start by looking at issues the majority of Americans agree on, which I have already written about here.

            Particular priorities the Democratic Party can take on which I think will help win elections and gain support are:

            • Improve the Affordable Care Act. Increase access to Medicaid, implement a Federal public option for health insurance. Make it so anyone can opt in for Medicaid or Medicare. Increase quality of Medicaid in many states by removing it from state government and make it run like Social Security Old Age Insurance where it doesn’t matter which state you live in.
            • Paid parental leave for the first 4 weeks of a child’s life for both parents and grandparents. Increase the existing tax credit for parental leave to 100% for all businesses and all income levels.
            • Implement the high speed train plan Obama proposed in 2009.
            • Significantly increase federal subsidies for local transit, and building light rail in major cities across America. Significant federal subsidies if free transit for riders is implemented.
            • Free community college tuition for everyone.
            • Fully subsidize tuition at every public college.
            • Significantly increase number of small business loans.
            • Dismantle our nuclear arsenal which wastes tens of billions of dollars per year.
            • Set a timeline to end our use of fossil fuels in transportation by 2030.
            • No new pipelines in the United States. Respect the treaties with Native American nations.
            • Implement a carbon tax which will increase at an exponential rate with no exemptions for any special interest group.
            • Have capital gains taxed as regular income. This should balance the budget.
            • Have tax rates be determined by an equation with 90% of households getting a negative income tax, and a top tax rate of 50%. Negative income tax for all households below $100,000 per year for a single person. Have adjustments for household size. Proposal available on my blog.
            • End the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction which inflates the cost of housing and has no justifiable reason for existing.
            • Implement a universal basic income to reduce income inequality.
            • Pardon all standing student loans, and pay back all interest which has already been paid since 2008.

            I started to write this, and most of the tenants are already on two existing lists. They are on the official Democratic Party Platform for 2016, and  on my annual post about platforms which are based on majority support. Democrats  are winning the generic battle for Congress and Trump’s support cannot even reach 40%. The platform is not the issue, and should not see any major changes this year or in 2020, it is already a progressive platform.

            The only area where Democrats are doing worse than the GOP is in strategy. The party needs to be more supportive of local candidates first of all, and give them as much support as possible across the country at every level. We need grassroots democracy, because all politics is local, and the greatest Presidents in history start out by being great leaders of their communities.

            When it comes to tipping point states, here is a list of states by their electoral college votes sorted by the Cook Partisan Voting Index:

            State Number to ratify Number of States Votes Number needed Vote in 2016 PVI Number of Votes Number needed
            Hawaii 50 4 264 D 18 4 264
            Vermont 14 3 261 D 15 7 261
            California 31 55 206 D 12 62 206
            Maryland 7 10 196 D 12 72 196
            Massachusetts 6 11 185 D 12 83 185
            New York 11 29 156 D 12 112 156
            Rhode Island 13 4 152 D 10 116 152
            Illinois 21 20 132 D 7 136 132
            New Jersey 3 14 118 D 7 150 118
            Washington 42 12 106 D 7 162 106
            Connecticut 5 7 99 D 6 169 99
            Delaware 1 3 R 6 172 96
            Oregon 33 7 99 R 5 179 89
            Maine 23 4 3 183 85
            New Mexico 47 5 3 188 80
            Colorado 38 9 1 197 71
            Michigan 26 16 99 R 1 213 55
            Minnesota 32 10 1 223 45
            Nevada 36 6 1 229 39
            Virginia 10 13 1 242 26
            New Hampshire 9 4 D 0 246 22
            Pennsylvania 2 20 99 D 0 266 2
            Wisconsin 30 10 0 276 -8

            You notice Ohio and Florida? Their votes are unnecessary for winning the Presidential election. We should still try our best to win their Governorships, because that is about 8 seats in the House we can pick up between them, and because we can. Getting more control over their state legislatures will be a really big change in terms of constitutional amendments, growing Democratic leadership for the 20s, and gaining a strong base. To get a constitutional majority to amend the constitution we will need 3/4 of the State legislatures, or 2/3 to call a convention. The states we would need to gain in order to do this on top of the states we need to win the Presidency (from the most conservative to least, again by PVI) would be Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Alaska, Indiana,Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana, Montana, Kansas, and Alabama. In short, any amendment to the constitution will require bipartisan support.

            Another bonus for the Presidential election is that Trump has a negative approval rating in every state I listed in the table above, as well as Iowa, Ohio, with North Carolina with a dead heat, given the Democrats a massive advantage to counter his incumbency advantage in 2020.

            The biggest message for the Democrats this year, is go big or you will go home.  We need to campaign as much as possible, candidates need to get out and talk to people nationwide, listen to their concerns, have an attitude to solve problems and then next year to succeed in following through.

            Governors

            The absolute most important races this year are the Governor races in a handful of states. 6 states with very Democratic PVI scores are Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico. We can pick up several of these states this year, and we also have a shot at getting Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If we pick up Governorships in every state which have a PVI which swings towards the Democrats we will have 22 states, by picking up 9 new states (yes, it is that bad). Some of the governors are more moderate and popular, Massachusetts and Maryland will be hard to pick up. This election is the Democrats to win as long as they don’t screw up.

            Interstate Vote Compact and State Legislatures

            The best way to guarantee majority rule in the 2020 election will be to have a majority of states sign onto the Interestate Vote Compact. This will likely be the first step in eliminating the Electoral College altogether.

            The good news is when it comes to the Interstate Vote Compact, the 11 most Democratic states have already signed on. We only need the 12 other Democratic leaning states to sign on in order to have a majority in 2020, forcing Trump to win a plurality of the vote in order to win, which is going to be very difficult given the Mueller Investigation which continues to pick people off of his election team faster than he can hire people. Some of these states, Delaware, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, have Democratic majorities in both houses and haven’t signed the compact yet. If they sign it will add 21 votes to the compact bringing the total to 190 out of the 270 needed. The remaining states which have split legislatures are Maine and Colorado which both have 18 R-17 D in their Senates. New York has a 32-31 R split in their Senate, and we can pick up at least one Senator this year. We just need to pick up one Senator seat in each of these three states and the Governor of Maine (which we will likely get) in order to pick up three valuable Trifectas.

            If we could get a few more moderate states to sign on to the Interstate Vote Compact that would go a long ways towards making it pass. This is unlikely because it is almost impossible that it will benefit the Republicans, but the reasoning is that it is better for Democracy because it makes the Presidential election a popular vote as opposed to the Electoral College.

            The legislatures with the slimmest Republican majorities (by percentage in both houses) are:

            1. Virginia (48% D)
            2. Maine (47.6% D)
            3. Illinois (47% D)
            4. Minnesota (46% D)
            5. Nevada (42% D)
            6. Arizona (42.5% D)
            7. Alaska (42.5% D)
            8. Iowa (40.9% D)
            9. Mississippi (38.58% D) 
            10. Montana (38.5% D)

            In order of number of seats we need to pick up in State Houses:

            1.  Virginia (1 seat)
            2. Arizona (5 seats)
            3. Maine (5 seats)
            4. Michigan (8 seats)
            5. Montana (9 seats)

            In order of number of seats we need to pick up in the State Senates:

            1.  New York (1 seat) and TRIFECTA
            2. Colorado (1 seat) and TRIFECTA
            3. Maine (1 seat)
            4. Minnesota (1 seat)
            5. Virginia (1 seat)
            6. Arizona (2 seats)
            7. Nevada (2 seats)
            8. Wisconsin (3 seats)
            9. Alaska (4 seats)
            10. Iowa (5 seats)
            11. Florida (5 seats)
            12. Texas (5 seats)
            13. West Virginia (5 seats)
            14. South Carolina (5 seats)

            I believe if we do this in the next 3 days, Democrats will win this week, and if we continue to push we can win a trifecta in 2020.

              State of the Global Economy, October 2018

              GE as predictor for the economy. The reason is that when companies want to grow they are going to go to a company like GE for the supplies they need while doing construction. This means that General Electric will be one of the first companies in America to feel the effects of the recession.

              This is also what happened in 2007-2008. General Electric’s stock crashed just prior to the Great Recession. The reason for this is because companies stopped doing new construction, and stopped ordering from GE. 12 months after GE tanked, the economy went into recession. This did not happen in 2000 because the stock market crash was isolated in tech stocks, it was not a systemic problem like we had in 2007-2008 with the housing bubble crash or the massive trade war which Donald Trump has started over the last 12 months.

              When Obama left office on 20 January 2017, we had a very healthy yield curve. Our yield curve is changing at one of the fastest rates in American history. Canada is not looking good, and neither is Mexico. I am fairly certain we will have a recession before the next Presidential election with everything I am reading.

              Japan right now has an extremely healthy yield curve. China is becoming steeper (which is good). India has a negative yield curve at the moment. Australia looks healthy. In Europe, Germany and France are both healthy, and the United Kingdom is about to feel the full brunt of Brexit with the uncertainty their stupidity has brought them. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have an opportunity to make the Tories irrelevant for the 2020s. There is no nice way to say it. Russia’s economy is unhealthy. On the bright side, it looks like Greece is finally starting to recover from Austerity. Norway looks fine.

              Indonesia doesn’t look good.

              I agree with the EIU that there will likely be a regime change in Venezuela within 2 years. Their yield curve is an absolute horror show.

              Colombia’s yield curve is steadily improving. Brazil is finally coming out of the darkness from the recession they had last year. Argentina is going to finish the recession they have been going through.

              Optimistic

              • China
              • Japan
              • Germany
              • France
              • Australia
              • Colombia
              • Brazil
              • Vietnam

              Confused

              • India

              Pessimistic

              • United States 
              • Russia
              • Canada
              • Mexico 

              Apocalyptic, the combination of political events and extremely negative bond yield curves make these countries look doomed in the short run.

              • United Kingdom
              • Venezuela
              • Argentina

              Finally, when reading these, it is good to take into account that China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, and Russia account for over half of all global GDP. Only 7 countries, China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Nigeria contain half of the global population.

              The United States and United Kingdom are in very similar situations right now. Heavily isolationist policies by their governing Republican and Conservative Parties (yes, yes, I know Brexit was a referendum, but the people were misinformed on what it means) have led their countries to ruin. The Republican Party has stood by their President as he burns our trading relationships, and with their political trifecta they have led us to ruin. This is exactly what happened the last time they had a Trifecta, they were kicked out in 2006, at which point the housing bubble was imminently going to pop. GE crashed the next year. The Conservative Party has stood by “Brexit means Brexit” which has dissuaded investment in the United Kingdom with the needless uncertainty which is destroying their economy right now.

              When it comes to Canada and Mexico, I think they are responding to the policies of the United States government due to being so heavily intertwined economically. The recession will likely not be as bad as it will be here in the United States, but it is not going to be good.

              India is suffering high unemployment, which is nothing new, and corruption has been improving somewhat (they have improved their ease of doing business index) yet for some reason they have a negative bond yield curve, which is a change from a year ago. They have rather high inflation, but is below where it used to be. Be wary of India, but I see no reason for panic.

              Argentina has had a fairly severe recession and their government has adopted a pro-cyclical approach to their economic policy by instating austerity. Decades of poor economic mismanagement is catching up with them. It is very sad.

              But not nearly as sad and aggravating as how the criminal syndicate United Socialist Party under Maduro and Chavez has led Venezuela to ruin. They have trampled the human rights of their country, turned themselves into an oil state, mismanaged those funds (as is so fucking common) and now their economy is crashing, with little hope of recovery before a revolution or coup kills him. Hopefully it comes soon so that Venezuelans can recover from the travesty they have caused. The inflation and depression is Weimar Republic levels. Their yield curve reflects it. There is no good reason anything should have anything but disdain for what they have done to their country.

              There you have it. I don’t know if my theory about General Electric is correct or not, but given everything else it seems likely. There are some parts of the world with reason to be optimistic, others less so. Hopefully politicians will make decisions to improve overall wealth and health of nations, and that those who have not will get the punishment they deserve proportional to their crimes.

              Yield curves are available at www.investing.com

              Mueller needs to tells us what happened

              Inspired by:
              https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/mueller-investigation-findings-914754

              There are two possibilities with the release of the Mueller probe:

              • either the Mueller Report does not include damning information on Donald Trump, hence would not effect the election and there is no reason to wait until afterwards,
              • The Mueller Report in its full context includes a smoking gun with proof of Russian influence in our election to the point of swinging the most important election in the second largest economy in the world, information which would impact the American people’s decision in November.

              What we know

              This is not opening a fraudulent congressional investigation days before the election which  is closed as soon as the target of the investigation loses.

              This is an investigation spanning over 30 years of very complex relationships between the President of the United States and the President of Russia, the evidence of which is undeniable.

              This is an investigation into whether a foreign power hacked into American elections in an attempt to swing the election in full.

              We know for a fact that the counties which Russia targeted in 2016 turned out to be pivotal for the Presidential election.

              James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, claims “It stretches credulity to conclude that Russian activity didn’t swing voter decisions.”

              We know for a fact that the Russians changed voter rolls across America.

              Conclusion

              There are now two potential options of what happened 2 years ago:

              • The Russian government developed a long, deep, and complicated relationship with the Republican Candidate for President of the United States, swung voter decisions in key states, going through enormous expense and energy, but not to impact the election when they had a very clear preference.

              Or:

              • The Russian government successfully groomed an American multimillionaire, helped him become a billionaire, effectively targeted voters filling our social media feeds with lies masquerading as news stories in order to get a President who will do what they want.

              It think it is pretty obvious no one would ever go to the extent and lengths Russia went through. I believe the numerous national security advisors.

              I believe it is now Robert Mueller’s duty to his country with the immense amount of evidence he has done, to present it to the American people in time for us to make our decisions with full information proving (or, however unlikely, disproving) the immense suspicion millions of Americans like myself have that the Russian government did.

              This is not the same thing as opening a Kangaroo court days before a major historic election against one of the candidates, with absolutely no intention of finishing it. This is presenting the American people with facts which we can use to make our decisions so we can get the right people elected as governor, legislators, representatives, and senators in three weeks. The consequence of withholding important information from the election is itself a political ploy which protects those who have (possibly) deeply harmed the United States of America, keeping them in power. That would be unpatriotic to allow such criminals off the hook and let them stay in positions of power to do even more damage to our democracy. It is downright cruel to the People of the United States for us to keep having a government which does not represent us, and keep us in the dark when there are elected officials who have very likely harmed us. Information is one of the most valuable and important pieces in an election, as important as the way you count the ballots. More information (as long as it is accurate) is always better for democracy.

              We deserve to know.

              America needs to know the truth to protect ourselves.

              This is a the biggest national security issue of my life.

              Release the probe.

              Previous articles I have personally written:

              • https://stidmatt-views.blogspot.com/2018/09/why-putin-hates-obama.htm
              • https://medium.com/@matthewstidham/swing-counties-9e0444e8cece?fbclid=IwAR04vs5_9p-Dns2ntzms1HdyLdm8P7XVV3xD-9nfPbrlVjZoZWJUQ8TSUOw

              References:

              • https://www.wired.com/story/did-russia-affect-the-2016-election-its-now-undeniable/
              • http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html
              • https://www.vox.com/2018/5/31/17384444/james-clapper-trump-russia-mueller-2016-election?fbclid=IwAR1zTtpuihMsvLXu0H98Vtloeio0-bLpQELQbXOw1TJuVU8DAs4tbAPc7_I
              • https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-the-russians-trump-wouldnt-have-won/2018/07/24/f4c87894-8f6b-11e8-bcd5-9d911c784c38_story.html?fbclid=IwAR1s8RdqXur4z8Uk4wnXUujyVOylRpinB3RxiR-XpybqzjXcwIACKjncXfY&utm_term=.2ccf30b18888

              Random musings, week 3 of October 2018

              • Native Americans are being denied the vote in South Dakota
              • African Americans are being pulled off of buses on their way to vote
              • Elizabeth Warren announces her DNA test at the same time as Native Americans are being denied the right to vote.
              • Trump is under trial in New York State for tax evasion
              • There is a pending case in front of the Supreme Court to give the President the ability to pardon state level crimes
              • After racking up hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, the Republicans are now targeting Medicare and Medicaid.
              • The Mueller Probe is ongoing.
              • Ryan Zinke, Secretary of the Interior, is under investigation.
              • US banned visas for same-sex partners of diplomats
              • Hundreds of voting polls have been closed before the upcoming election, mostly targeting minorities. https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/kz58qx/how-the-gutting-of-the-voting-rights-act-led-to-closed-polls
              • Washington State Legislature is held by the Democrats by a thread, this election could significantly increase their advantage after record primaries with people voting for Democrats. Democrats have a 25-23-Sheldon majority in the Senate and a 50-48 majority in the House.
              • Republican Governors are up in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. They will be able to approve or veto redistricting maps which will impact their state legislatures and about 100 representatives in the US house from the 2022 to 2030 elections.
              • The Colorado Legislature is the closest legislature in America today, and half of the Senate is up for election in three weeks, and every seat in the House. Republicans have a 18-16-1 seat majority in the Senate right now. Democrats have a 36-29 majority in the House.
              • The US representative seat from Alaska is essentially a toss-up, among many other traditionally Republican seats.
              • The way we name our house districts is the way the French do it (State – #), Commonwealth countries and Germany call their districts by the name of their location (Abbotsford).

              Republican State governors projected to flip by Nate Silver:

              • Iowa
              • Michigan
              • Illinois
              • Maine
              • New Mexico

              Republican Governors in toss-up territory:

              • Nevada
              • Kansas
              • Wisconsin
              • Ohio
              • Florida
              • Georgia

              Every Democratic Governor is safe.

              This would mean that the governorships will be divided 50/50 with 25 governorships being held by each party. More Americans will be in Democratic states though, so more seats in the House during the 2020 redistricting will be signed or vetoed by a Democratic Governor. Having more favorable legislature maps for the Democrats will have impacts on every issue in America, and effect everybody’s lives.

              There is a lot going on. It is easy to get overwhelmed.

              But, when you get your ballot, remember to vote. That is how we are going to fix the problems this article starts with.