Stidmatt

Forest fires burn across the American west. Hurricanes ravage the gulf coast. Australia loses millions of animals. The coral reefs are getting bleached and dying. Fossil fuels fund regimes which harm their people. Climate change is here. Climate change is real.

The clock is ticking to end climate change. We need to act now, and we need to make the actions we do work as soon as possible. We need to reduce fossil fuel consumption as much as we can, as soon as we can, everywhere in the world.

Technology has advanced considerably over the last 20 years, electric cars can travel over 300 miles on a single charge, solar power installations are going in around the world and the cost of solar has plummeted. Working from home is becoming more feasible, and we have all the tools we need to make this world transition to renewable energy.

Most people know that global warming is real, and that it is a problem. In order to make people match that concern with actual actions, we need to make it more economical for people to use renewable energy as opposed to fossil fuels. We need to do this swiftly, and we need to have a plan now.

Fortunately, in order to get most people to switch, we need to simply make it less expensive to use renewables than fossil fuels. and there are two ways to do that. Either the government can significantly subsidize renewable energy, or the government can make burning fossil fuels more expensive. At the end of the day it is the same thing because of the substitution effect.

There are only two questions remaining, first of all, which government programs will reduce carbon pollution the most for the smallest amount of money in the shortest amount of time, and second, will a policy dilute resources from other necessary programs?

When it comes to both of these questions, the obvious answer is of course a carbon tax. A carbon tax is the most efficient way to reduce pollution, it doesn’t dilute funds from other necessary programs, and it doesn’t favor one source of energy over the other. Maybe you live in a very windy area, in that case windmills make sense. Maybe you live in Florida, or Texas, or even Washington (to be honest) in which case solar panels are a very sensible and economical choice.

Most importantly, we need to pass a policy like this as soon as possible. As soon as the filibuster is abolished, we need to pass the bill proposed by Citizens Climate Lobby which is fully written out, ready to work, and will start making an immediate impact as soon as it is passed. Learn more about their policy proposal here: Citizens Climate Lobby

I prefer the plan by Citizens Climate Lobby because it hits all of the marks, 1. it exists, 2. it will work quickly, 3. it’s cheap.

My first point is because the Green New Deal still has not been fully written up. It is impossible to know exactly how much it will cost and exactly how much pollution it will reduce before it is written into a final draft as a real bill. A climate change bill needs to have these details flushed out, and we need to be able to set each proposal next to each other so we can determine the bang per buck of each proposal, and how long it will take us to get to any of our goals. Until the Green New Deal is finished, and it is studied to understand how quick it will work and how much it will cost per ton of carbon reduced, it is just a pipe dream. Also, it doesn’t take over two years to move policy from an idea to a final draft. We have other policies ready to go right now which are completed and have real estimates on how much carbon emissions will be cut.

The fact of the matter is carbon taxes are the most efficient way to reduce carbon pollution. There is no way any policy is going to beat a carbon tax on cost effectiveness simply through subsidizing renewable energy.

Second, carbon taxes win on speed. The legislature passes a carbon tax, the tax is implemented, and it costs more to pollute. Basic economic theory teaches us that when a good is more expensive, people consume less than they did before. With a subsidy, you have to start by allocating those funds (which can take years) and then you have to setup an agency to distribute those funds, and then you need to allocate those funds appropriately. Carbon taxes are simply faster.

Third, it is cheap. as found in that study by The IET and many many others over the last decade.

Please join Citizens Climate Lobby and work to pass real legislation which is based on science, we know will work, and will be equitable, fair, and effective.

We simply don’t have time to wait.

The ideal path which I want America to go down sees President Biden drop his crusade for bipartisanship, and instead focus on passing Democratic policies which got him elected in the first place. By following the two step plan of student loan forgiveness and restarting the agencies which would have prevented or at least slowed COVID, Democrats can increase their majorities in both houses and hopefully get legislation done next year. What is frustrating is that this path is so easy and it would work if it was done and then used on the campaign trail. New appointments to the Supreme Court and all Federal judgeships will be more moderate than our current bench, which will preserve the gains which we have made so far through future court decisions. By maintaining a strong Democratic majority in Congress we will then be able to pass important legislation to make a better world.

This is what I want.

The other path which could happen is where President Biden does not use his authority to forgive student loans and prevent future COVID outbreaks. Democrats see a drop in voter turnout in 2022 because Democrats are not mobilized, but Republicans are mobilized over mask mandates, which is already occurring. The attempted coup at the capitol building was to show their voters that they stand in favor of what is quick and easy, not right and verified by science. Democrats have their asses whooped in the 2022 midterms, losing both the House and Senate.

Republicans campaign as hard as possible in 2024, and combined with voter discrimination laws which President Biden refuses to successfully fight through filibuster reform (which he could do through the bully pulpit if he wanted to) they will have a real shot at winning. All they have to do is win the states they won in 2020 and flip Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all states which Trump won by narrow margins in 2016. Republicans only need a successful third party candidate to drain votes away from Biden in 2024 and they can absolutely win, especially if Democrats have little to point to in order to get their voters out to vote. The more Biden shows a willingness to compromise with Republicans, the more of his base will decide not to vote.

Republicans take a trifecta in 2024, with the Democrats in disarray with no unifying issue to campaign on. Republicans start by moving on the Affordable Care Act through Congress. All they need to do next to get rid of the Affordable Care Act is a case as well put together as King v. Burwell, and by effectively flipping the votes of Kennedy and Ginsburg (since they are no longer on the court) they have a 5-4 victory against the Affordable Care Act.

They already have the justices to do this, if they make sure they have reasonable standing, the ACA is dead.

President Biden needs to mobilize his base, and he needs to do it soon.

Step 1: Pardon student loans, as much as the President can possibly do.
The message then is simple, “If you know a single person who either has gone to college or is planning to go to college, we will ensure they are not tens of thousands of dollars in debt.”

Step 2: Restart the agencies which would have caught COVID early, saving over 600,000 American lives.
The message is very simple, “If you lost a loved one during COVID, we are sorry for your loss, and we will do everything in our power to make sure that never happens again.”

We take the state legislatures in Arizona and Michigan.

We narrow Republican leads in other state legislature in states like Texas.

We have as close to a guarantee of keeping the Presidency until either the Republican Party moves from their current far right views or totally disband.

This will save hundreds of thuosands of lives.

This is one more reason why President Biden should pardon student loans. Pardoning student loans will expand our lead in Congress allowing him to get more of his agenda done next year.

If young people and middle class families don’t vote Democratic next year, we will likely underperform, and probably lose one or both houses of Congress.

Or we can push policies which we know will benefit Americans, and benefit Democrats politically, and then tell Americans about it constantly.

It’s all in the hands of President Biden. He doesn’t need Congress to do these two simple politically beneficial things.

When people are phone banking, make certain that the average answer to the question “How much are you paying on student loans?” is “Nothing, I’m saving for my down payment on my first house.”

If President Biden makes this happen, it will be easy to convince millennials to vote next year, and we will win.

That’s the post. That’s the strategy. That’s the most important thing we need to do. We need to show that when people vote Democrat, good things happen. Pardoning student loans is the easiest way to make it so that Millennials (who Democrats absolutely must turn out in order to win the midterms) will vote in greater numbers.

It’s also good for the economy. #Cancelstudentdebt

60 years ago, my grandparents grew up in working class families, with limited income in California. The schools were good in practically any neighborhood, and when they graduated from high school they were able to go to college with no college debt as young people from families with limited means.

Now in many parts of the United States, this was not true, but California made investments in their people, and grew one of the largest highly educated work forces the world has ever known. After my parents were born in the 1960s there was the large population of young highly educated people who had no debt in the world was in California, and these individuals were able to take out business loans and take risks.

Now, California had been the home to significant military installations since it was first colonized by the United States. There was a naval research station in the San Francisco Bay area for many decades before my grandparents were even born, but it was only in the post-1945 economic boom and massive increase in education investment that Silicon Valley started to grow. California had a good business climate, a massive population of young highly educated workers who were able to take on substantial risks, and with this political and economic climate, combined with the Bay Area successfully protesting the demolition of their infrastructure during the American Streetcar scandal which absolute decimated Los Angeles, the Bay Area had the infrastructure, educated population, and easy business climate which allowed it to grow.

In my office I have raspberry pis, a System76 laptop, an Apple M1 Mac Mini, and a desktop, and I have a desktop at work which runs AMD. The processors of all of these computers have one thing in common. They were all designed in Silicon Valley.

Northern California in the post-war era had the perfect situation to expand opportunity to everybody willing to invest in themselves, and today it has the 7th highest median household income in the United States.

Not to say everything is perfect in California today, the era of massive investment in higher education is over. It is far more difficult for someone out of college to get an initial job compared to when Silicon Valley was expanding. Housing prices have skyrocketed along with the rest of the country for a myriad of factors, and California is a destination for homeless people due to good weather and being less horrible than many other states towards its homeless population. More obviously needs to be done nationwide to help those who have not had access to the opportunity this country has, and this is a national issue. But when you look at almost every quality of life metric aside from cost of living, California does better than almost every other state. This is a direct consequence of the investments the state made in the middle of the 20th century.

The expansion of higher education expanded opportunity to families who had never had such opportunity before, and this massively improved the state.

As any observer of the United States knows, this situation did not last.

In the 1960s we saw laws passed which forbid discrimination in most aspects of American life. This is obviously a very good thing, and as a consequence opportunity opened up to minorities where opportunity did not exist before. We saw a massive increase in educational attainment by people of all races. This is a remarkable achievement of public policy and investment.

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p20-578.pdf

However, over the last decade, the amount of public funds being invested in public education has declined, and this has moved the cost of tuition from the public to the individual. This is where student loans become a really big problem. The cause of stagnating public assistance to educate America comes from several sources, one is declining state revenues. Most states have a regressive tax system, and when the middle class doesn’t increase its income, those states end up with declining revenues. Another issue is the rising costs of health care, as health care becomes more expensive, state governments burden a lot of that cost because of employee benefits which almost always include health insurance, and increasing costs to government health care programs. With stagnating wages for the middle class, combined with very low tax rates for the top 1% of households, state budgets have taken a serious hit. One of the places where they felt they could cut spending without increasing taxes on millionaires was on higher education, , so that is what almost every state government did.

The consequence of this becomes very serious when you take into account intergenerational wealth. White families have significantly higher income than Black families on average. Brookings Institute and this means that middle class families (who are mostly white) were able to take on the burden of higher costs of college due to having savings. For low income families, who are more likely to be people of color, they tend to have little to no assets which means that they are not able to cover the costs of higher tuition. If young adults from such families cannot qualify for student loans (for which there can be many reasons, not everyone gets approved), and they do not qualify for low income college aid for whatever reason, they are unable to go to college. Without a blanket coverage of the costs of college, there are Americans who are going to be buried in student loans. Having student loans makes it less likely that someone will be able to Buy a house, historically one of two main ways American families have accumulated wealth, along with IRAs. You are less likely to save fore retirement, and this creates a real problem. People from families which do not have much wealth will be more likely to take on student loans (because their families are unable to cover them) or if that person is discriminated for their family for whatever reason (maybe their family is homophobic or ableist for instance) and they don’t receive aid to go to college, those individuals are going to have a much more difficult time to succeed than straight, able bodied white people from families which have money.

This is a form of extreme corruption in post-Reagan America. When fewer people are able to graduate from college without debt, fewer businesses will be created. Fewer businesses being created means less demand for labor, which means lower wages, which increases the relative power of those who have significant resources. People of color in particular will have a harder time getting on the property ladder, significantly harming them financially in a way which cannot be easily rectified. It harms our economy because it means fewer people qualify for small business loans, and it obviously increases inequality. Those who already have resources will be able to horde more resources, and there will be less opportunity. With lower taxes because of the reduction in government investment in our human capital, those who already have significant resources will be able to horde more wealth which will further increase inequality, which is bad for society. This closing of opportunity for millions who are not from privilege increases the power of those who are already wealthy, and that is corrupt.

The solution is simple. President Biden needs to excuse student loans up to $50,000, and use the bully pulpit so that we can abolish the filibuster and make other big structural changes to our economy which will significantly improve American society in so many ways.

He has the authority to do this, and he should do this for the economy and the social health of the United States. It will reduce corruption in America, make a positive impact on equality, and make us a stronger healthier society.

Mr. President, if you want to be more than a footnote in an American history textbook and do something which will significantly help millions of Americans, it’s time to pardon student loans.

America needs to get more people vaccinated, and we need to make sure that our public spaces are safe. We can do both by requiring people to prove they are vaccinated when they enter a public space, and require a vaccination in order to fly or take a train.

The way to do this is through a vaccine verification system. We need a national vaccination verification system run by the federal government which stores information on who is vaccinated, and what vaccine people get. We already have systems related to taxes, Medicare, OASI, the draft, customs, and more. Each of these has information on every American, or at least a large percentage of Americans. There is no reason we can’t have this system as well.

You want to ensure that someone cannot randomly check on whether their neighbor is vaccinated (for privacy reasons) but you also need to make sure that anyone can verify that someone entering their store is vaccinated before they are allowed to enter. The way to do this is that you tie vaccination records to the IDs which people already carry with them. The individual can choose which IDs they want to use to verify they are vaccinated or not. I personally would choose my driver’s license, Nexus, Passport, and Passport Card, the four IDs I have which would guarantee that I can always be verified as vaccinated. This system would be extremely difficult to hack, and it would be impossible to feed it incorrect information. You would not be able to simply make a fake vaccine card anymore which might fool someone.

Is this an infringement of privacy? Well, I can already check to see if any citizen is registered to vote, and whether they voted in the last election. I can learn who owns any parcel of land in the country with the right systems. This would be setup simply to keep Americans safe, and it would help shorten the epidemic by essentially forcing Americans to get vaccinated if they want to participate in society.

How would one verify that someone is on the database? Well, it would be very simple. You could simply scan the ID just like we do at the airport, or you could type in the numbers into the database, and it will tell you whether the ID is in the system or not.

This is how you increase the number of people getting vaccinated.

This is how you save American lives.

There is a clear path for the Republicans to retake government over the last 4 years, which would be devastating to minorities, LGBT people, and women’s rights. Without too much ado, let’s get on with it.

In order for the Republicans to win reelection, President Biden needs to continue to abstain from discussing the filibuster, not do anything by executive order which he promised when he was running for office, and generally govern from the center-right by simply changing as little as possible. With the exception of the stimulus, this is the path we are on right now. His reversal on student loans is not going to be the first time he breaks a promise on a popular position he took in order to get the Presidency. This is in the best interest of the Republican Party. This will demotivate Biden’s core base.

Congress must continue to be deadlocked because of the filibuster. Nothing gets through congress. Most Democrats in Congress will continue to not hold Sinema and Manchin responsible for their actions.

Next year is an absolutely critical election, and the Republicans are going to do better than most people think they will assuming nothing changes from the status quo. Facing a Democratic Party which is unable to do anything even when they have power, and a President who refuses to do anything he has the legal authority to do out of a belief in “Unity”, the Republicans will run with the platform they ran on in 2004. Security to protect your family, protect the family unit, family, family, family. Plus how they are compassionate conservatives who have seen the light.

All the Republicans have to do is keep all of their seats next year with relatively moderate but still anti-abortion candidates, combined with no serious effort from the New Democrats to fulfill any of their long term structural change related promises and the Senate will remain with 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 2 independents, along with Sinema and Manchin who caucus with Democrats but vote with Republicans through their opposition to the filibuster. It is not unlike how Senator Tim Sheldon behaved in Washington State for most of the 2010s.

Right now the Republicans need to do everything they can to stonewall the Democrats to prevent them from making any progress, as they have done for the past 50 years whenever they have had the chance. This will demotivate Democratic leaning voters, reducing their turnout next  year. Republicans nominate anti-abortion candidates in the states where they are retiring who appear reasonable so they can keep those seats. The most difficult seat to keep will be Pennsylvania, where they won’t have an incumbent, and the second hardest seat to keep will be Wisconsin. They must keep both of these seats to keep Sinema and Manchin relevant, which is in their best interest, to prevent the nuclear option for the Filibuster. If they flip Georgia that would obviously be ideal for the Republicans… but that will be difficult because Warnock is an excellent Senator and there is now obviously very strong organizing behind him. The Republicans need to lose fewer than two seats to stay in effective control of the Senate and continue the gridlock we are currently suffering from.

The House map could go either way. It is going to be a far more competitive map because Democrats have the governorships in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This is going to help the Democrats potentially keep the majority in the House, but we can only do this if we motivate voters. Not having to fight against such structurally disproportionate maps is certainly going to give the Democrats a relative advantage compared to the 2018 elections, but simply having more fair maps is not enough to win an election.

In order to do well in an election you need at least three things:

• A map which isn’t heavily gerrymandered against you
• Motivated voters
• A well organized campaign

It’s really not that hard, but I am concerned that unless if we see a reversal by President Biden on a number of broken promises, namely student loans, Democrats won’t have the motivated voters, which will mean that too many Democrats will stay home next year. Republicans are getting barraged with messaging from Faux News that Biden is a radical leftist, so they are most certainly going to be motivated. Democrats need to ensure their base is as motivated to get out and vote next year. Given their cowardice on student loans, and the filibuster, I do not see that happening over the next 18 months.

Republicans have all three.

If we do not change course soon, the 2022 election will go to the Republican Party.

If Republicans win the 2022 elections, Biden will truly be unable to pass any legislation besides the annual budget, and presidents do not become notable for annual budgets.

In 2024 Republicans want a candidate who will both not motivate Democrats to get out and vote, but also right wing enough that more conservative Republicans will turn out. A candidate who has spent the last two years attempting to appear palatable to the average American will do well. If Biden does not do something beyond the bare minimum (which is ending the pandemic), then Democratic voters will not turn out in the numbers we need them to.

Anyone the Republicans nominate will get significant positive press from Faux News which will increase their popularity among the Republican base. The candidate needs to appear moderate enough that he doesn’t inflame the Democratic base, but extreme enough that the zealots in the Republican Party will feel like he has their back.

That man is Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney did lose against Obama in 2012, and that makes sense. Obama was extremely popular, he moved America’s Overton Window to the left on issues like education, LGBT rights, racial relations, and many other issues. He passed the Affordable Care Act, and defended it  to the American people to the point where most Americans support it today. He signed executive orders like the DREAM ACT, and even though congress blocked many of his proposals, those who understand politics understood he did what he could. When it comes to the Student loan crisis, and the severity with which the filibuster has paralyzed our government, the Democratic Party at the federal level is in disarray. It is paralyzed on global warming at every level, unable to decide how to make a difference, wanting the legislation to be everybody’s vision of “perfect” hence failing at every level of government. It fails to keep its members in line when they are elected but will happily give every person as part of their caucus money to keep them in office because they have this belief that no matter how much Joe Manchin, Kirsten Sinema, and Tim Sheldon vote with Republicans, “the Republican is always worse”. Republicans literally removed Liz Cheney from committee seats because she criticized a former Republican President. This weakens the Democratic Party, demotivates the base, and gives the Republicans a real political advantage.

Mitt Romney leading the ticket will talk about how he is going to bring America together against the radical Joe Biden, Faux News will back him up, Joe Biden will have a hard time fighting the image of himself as a radical, and unless if he gives Democrats something to vote FOR, he will lose either the primary or the General election.

Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney because he is a popular and historically notable President.

Joe Biden is not Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney can then bring the Republican Party back to where it was before Trump, and by passing extreme laws without sounding extreme it will force the New Democratic Party to determine how they lost yet again. He will roll back civil rights for LGBT people and continue the 50 year drift of the Republican Party to the right. A religious zealot like Romney who will rile the base against a political coward like Joe Biden who is uninspiring is exactly what the Republican Party needs to win again,

We must prevent President Romney. Biden needs to enact as much of the Democratic Party Platform as he can and start whipping votes to end the filibuster.

I doubt he will.