I’m going to analyze states that have split state governments and explore why they are split.
Alaska
Alaska is listed as a trifecta, but Republicans have a majority in both houses of the state legislature. It is not technically a trifecta because of the status of the coalition.
Arizona
Arizona‘s state legislature has been held by Republicans since 2003, and it has been consistently Republican since 1994. But things might be changing as their governor is a Democrat, both US Senators are Democrats, and they voted for Biden in 2020. Arizona is in the process of a large and historic flip from being solidly Republican to being a swing state.
Kansas
Kansas had an incredibly unpopular governor in the 2010s who led his state into a recession, giving the governorship to Democrat Laura Kelly. The state is, however, heavily Republican.
Kentucky
While Kentucky has been heavily Republican for federal elections since 2000, its state government executive offices have remained competitive, even if the General Assembly has been controlled by Republicans since 2016.
Michigan
Michigan has been fairly consistently Democratic at the federal level since the 1950s. The last year when both US Senate seats were held by Republicans was 1954. They consistently voted for Democrats in every election since 1992 except 2016 and 2024. Their executive offices have been competitive since the early 1990s. Republicans eked out a small majority in the State House last year, but there was a Democratic trifecta from 2022-2023, the first Democratic trifecta since 1983. Michigan remains a competitive state. Their State Senate was consistently held by Republicans from 1983-2023, while the House has been Republican for most of the time since 2010. When your legislature is consistently one way but state executive offices vote another way… I smell gerrymandering.
Minnesota
Minnesota has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976. Since 1932, it has only voted Republican in 1952, 1956, and 1972. Its governors were competitive, but in the last gubernatorial election, Governor Tim Walz won with a 10-point margin. Despite this, the legislature has been competitive since 2000. Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to throw away an easy trifecta in the spirit of fairness. Democrats act as if they have a humiliation kink sometimes…
Nevada
Nevada is a fascinating state politically. Their state legislature has remained fairly consistently Democratic since the 1930s. The only Republican trifecta since 1933 was in 2015. They have been a bellwether state for the presidency, voting for the winner in every election since 1904 except for 1908, 1976, and 2016. There has been at least one Democratic US Senator from Nevada since 1987. That being said, state executive offices had a spell from 1983 to the present where they swung pretty randomly between Democrats and Republicans.
North Carolina
North Carolina used to be heavily Democratic until 2010. 2011 was the first year in which both houses of the legislature were held by Republicans since 1871. The state legislature swung heavily Republican starting in 2011, and it has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, with the exceptions of 1976 and 2008. State executive offices, however, have remained mostly Democratic to the present date, which has been true since Reconstruction. This used to be true across the South, and North Carolina and Kentucky are the only states in the region for which this has remained true.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is similar to Michigan. Its state legislature has stayed consistently Republican since the Civil War, with only a few times when the State Senate has been held by Democrats since then, in 1937, 1961, 1971-1980, and 1993. At the same time, they voted Democratic in every election from 1992-2012, and their state executive offices have mostly been held by Democrats. Their US House flipped from 12D-7R in 2008 to 12R-7D in 2010. It reeks of gerrymandering, which has prevented the Democrats from gaining a trifecta in Pennsylvania since 1993. Given how they had a Democratic governor in 2010, this fits into my humiliation kink theory.
Vermont
While being extremely democratic in every other way since the 1990s, Vermont consistently elects Republican governors. There hasn’t been a point where all executive offices were held by one party since 1983, and there hasn’t been a time when every executive office, the state legislature, and both senators were held by one party since 1972. They like their moderate Republican Governors and their leftist U.S. Senator. Vermont is (in?) a weird state.
Virginia
Virginia was heavily Democratic until the 1970s as part of Nixon’s Southern Strategy. Since the 1990s, their legislature has been mostly Republican, except right now, where both chambers are controlled by Democrats; however, their governor right now is Glenn Youngkin, who beat out former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe in 2021. McAuliffe was the DNC chair in 2002, the first election where Republicans won a Federal trifecta since 1952. Similar to their US Senator Tim Kaine, who was DNC chair in 2010 when Democratic turnout fell off a cliff. Virginia Democrats like to nominate their former failed DNC chairs. At least there haven’t been any failed DNC chairs from Virginia since Tim Kaine blew it in 2010… so I think I dare to be hopeful about the future of Virginia politics. Virginia Democrats have a large humiliation kink. I will not be taking questions.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is like Michigan and Pennsylvania, forming our trifecta of the 2016 victory of Donald Trump. It voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1988-2012 until swinging slightly Republican in 2016. Their legislature has been heavily Republican since 2010 as part of a brutal gerrymander which was somehow done by a Democratic trifecta. Yet more evidence of a widespread humiliation kink among multiple State Democratic Parties. Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to shoot themselves in the foot. They haven’t had two Republican senators since 1956. It has been consistently competitive since the Great Depression.
Conclusion
There are several main factors behind divided state governments as I have explored in this piece:
- Idiotic Republican governors: Kansas
- New England being weird: Vermont
- Gerrymandered state legislatures in competitive states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
- Southern split: Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia
- Democrats shooting themselves in the foot: Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin
- A major state swing in the process: Arizona
- Bellwether: Nevada
So there are many reasons why a state could be split between parties, not just one unifying factor.
Electoral strategy remains essential for capturing and retaining power.
Most importantly, Democrats need to fight their humiliation kink and replace it with a victory kink.
