Netanyahu overplayed his hand

Canada announced it will recognize Palestine yesterday, a day after France did the same.

Israel will continue to be recognized, but the combination of factors over the last few months is starting to seriously backfire on the worst people in the world.

• Trump’s economic and immigration policy will drain our country of the necessary manual labor we need, causing stagflation.
• Trump’s alienation of our allies through tariffs has significantly reduced our influence abroad.
• Trump’s elimination of foreign aid has significantly reduced America’s soft power.
• More and more people are claiming Trump is in the Epstein Files, because, of course, he is.
• Putin’s continued invasion of Ukraine continues to fail, and with the incredible reduction in American power over the last seven months, we are seeing Ukraine strike Russia directly, which will end the war.
• Netanyahu has caused a severe famine in Gaza, which has significantly alienated his country.
• Russia’s increased dependence on Communist China has the potential to sever ties between China and Russia.
• Israel is the only wealthy country with over a million people with good corruption, government efficiency, and voice and accountability scores from the World Governance Indicators, which has not sanctioned Russia.
• China’s continued friendship with Russia has the potential to drive a wedge in Sino-Indian relations.
• Mercosur is negotiating a free trade agreement with the European Union, a major blow to China and Russia, bringing them rightfully into orbit with the rest of the free world.

There are some horrible things happening right now, but if our leaders leverage the situation appropriately, it could massively backfire on Communist China, Russia, Trump, and Netanyahu.

Ukraine’s impressive progress in taking out the Russian military will significantly weaken the state and lead to Putin’s downfall. This will cause chaos in Russia, reducing their ability to manipulate elections in democracies like the United States, Slovakia, and Georgia. This must be our top priority.

With the downfall of Russia, their trade with their trade partners China, Iran, Israel, and North Korea will collapse. It is hard to know exactly how much the loss of trade with Russia will impact these countries because getting clear information on the extent of their interdependence is difficult. The fall of Russia will certainly have a negative impact on the economies of these countries to various extents.

How will the timeline go?

1. More countries will continue to recognize Palestine in response to the famine in Gaza.
2. Ukraine will continue to hammer Russian military bases until the front line collapses and they win the war.
3. The American economy will have major negative impacts from Trump’s insane policies.
4. Canada will deepen ties to Europe by moving defense ties to the European Defense framework instead of NATO.
5. In light of many major foreign policy failures, a struggling domestic economy, and the Epstein scandal, Trump’s impeachment becomes more likely. There will be impeachment trials. I do not know if they will successfully remove him.
6. Democrats sweep the midterms.

The one remaining variable is what will happen in Israel? Israelis have never removed a corrupt prime minister by protest. They voted in Ariel Sharon after the anti-Semitic assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. I do not believe Israelis will remove Netanyahu from power; he has been in power for most of the last 30 years. Nothing will fundamentally change.

But as a result of this, Israel will see its isolation increase and its dependence on the United States as well. Countries might start revoking free trade agreements with Israel in response. I do not see any silver lining to Israel right now. Likud still leads the polls. Israelis are choosing diplomatic isolation. So be it. They have the right as citizens of a democracy to make decisions that isolate their country diplomatically. There is no centrist or left-wing movement in Israel with any chance of having power today. That is their right as a democracy.

Other democracies also have the right to choose not to do business with pariah states that elect far-right leaders.

If there is an opposition win in Israel, their opposition is not what you think. Bennett supports the total blockade of Gaza, which is isolating his country diplomatically. He is no better than Netanyahu. Nothing will fundamentally change in internal domestic Israeli politics.

But they will be increasingly internationally isolated, and potentially lose free trade deals, given the crisis in Gaza, which would be devastating to their economy. This is 100% because of Netnayahu’s decisions.

If the United States elects a president like AOC, this could lead to a reduction or elimination of military aid to Israel. This would force Israel to source its own military and focus on diplomacy and peace efforts instead of constantly relying on handouts from the American government. This will be a direct consequence of Netanyahu’s decisions.

While the United States will be able to rebuild its alliances and free trade deals after Trump, there is no voice in Israeli politics today who will make the necessary political decisions to finally come to a peaceful solution to their 80-year-old war with Palestine. We will recover, and Israel will not. The reason is simply because of the politicians they elect into office. They will not have Russia to lean back on because of the failed Invasion of Ukraine. Europe will distance itself from Israel, and Ukraine will want nothing to do with them since Israel has refused to sanction Russia. These are not due to underlying anti-Semitism from Zelensky (which is absurd), it comes down to the fact that no one wants to trade with a country that continued to invest in your invader as your people were being slaughtered like animals.

This could happen very soon, and that’s why I believe Netanyahu has overplayed his hand. No politician wants to be seen as enabling a famine. Given the choice between protecting a foreign head of government or protecting their own hide, most reasonable politicians will protect themselves.

Israelis need to change their politics, and then they will be welcomed back into the international community.