I’m summarizing these articles because getting a good overview of this relationship is impossible to find. So, I’m going to bring the pieces together here.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Russia_relations
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel-Ukraine_relations
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon-Russia_relations
In short, based on the information in just these articles:
- Israel refuses to impose sanctions on Russia.
- Israel refuses to send weapons to Ukraine. Their relationship is chilly, certainly not friendly, but not outright hostile.
- Israel and Russia were working on building an encrypted communication line in 2019. If it were finished, it would be a secret. They have a special relationship.
- Russia and Iran have a deep and comprehensive economic and military alliance, cooperating on almost everything.
- The United States sends weapons to Ukraine.
- The United States sends weapons to Israel.
- The rest of NATO sends weapons to Ukraine, but not Israel.
- Israel is bombing Lebanon.
- Iran supports Hezbollah, which is at war with Lebanon.
- Russia and Lebanon have cold relations.
- Russia supports Hezbollah.
All of this can be found in those three Wikipedia articles, which contain primary sources on the relationships between these countries.
This clusterfuck of a situation can be seen in this graph:
How to untangle this mess?
It would be ideal if Israel and Russia distanced themselves, but that is also wishful thinking. If it were going to happen, Israel would have cut trade already. It will only happen if there is a revolution in Russia.
If Russia and Iran distanced themselves, Iran would be isolated. It will only happen if there is a revolution in Iran or Russia.
Hezbollah would collapse without Iranian and Russian support. That will only happen if there are revolutions in both Iran and Russia.
If Israel bombs Lebanon like they have Gaza, that will isolate Israel and strengthen Hezbollah, as has been seen in support for Hamas in Gaza. This benefits Russia and Iran. Ending the bombing of Lebanon is a winning strategy for the Israeli people. It also would likely end Netanyahu’s political career by resuming impeachment proceedings. So, a rapid ending to the bombing of Lebanon is wishful thinking.
If Iran stops supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia falls, the Iranian regime is doomed. It would isolate Iran by weakening its military aid from Russia, leading to a domestic revolution. They must ensure Russia wins in Ukraine or be replaced through revolution.
Suppose the United States stopped sending military aid to Israel and instead brokered a peace agreement that included humanitarian aid to de-escalate the situation. In that case, that is the only realistic first step toward peace in the Middle East. It will end Netanyahu’s political career since resuming impeachment proceedings in such a scenario is inevitable.
This is why the Israeli government cannot achieve a purely military victory. It undermines support for Ukraine, which is implicit support for Russia. There is also no path where Netanyahu ends his career as a free man. All he can do is delay the inevitable.
The War in Gaza and Lebanon must end. This graph proves there is no way the war can be won through violence.