I don’t think Harris is likely to win the 2028 election if she runs.
2024 was the second time a failed presidential candidate won the election after losing the popular vote in a preceding election in history. But many have tried.
Grover Cleveland lost the Electoral College while winning the popular vote in the 1888 election, but won again in 1892.
Thomas Dewey lost in 1944 and 1948.
Adlai Stevenson tried the same in 1956 after losing in 1952.
Richard Nixon successfully ran in 1968 after losing in 1960, but he only won 43% of the vote the second time. 1968 was a very screwy election.
Donald Trump did win in 2024 after losing in 2020, but this was after serving as president from 2017 to 2021.
Kamala Harris is a former Vice President who has a failed presidential bid. It’s very unlikely that she would win the primary election after failing in 2024.
The 1972 Democratic primary was the first Democratic primary with elections in every state. Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey ran and won only 25% of the popular vote. That is likely to happen to Harris if she runs in 2028.
Based on history, I do not think Harris will run again. I think the 2028 primary will have mostly governors and senators, and AOC.
But here’s the thing… we will probably win in 2028 no matter who we nominate, given that Trump is doing a phenomenally terrible job. So the primary does not matter for whether we win in 2028. We could win with AOC, Harris, Buttigieg, Newsom, or Crockett.
What the 2028 primary election will determine is whether we will win the 2032 election.
Will we have a president who will lead us while upholding both the economy and foreign policy? Will we have a president who, once again, will appoint sophomores to high cabinet positions who will lead us down the road to needless war? Will we have a president who will recognize that foreign policy impacts the economy, or live in a fantasy that America is an island? Will we have a president who will uphold human rights and the Constitution, or a candidate who sees such things as ivory tower ideas disconnected from reality? Will we have a president who is capable of pushing for necessary policy changes through Congress to improve life for Americans, or someone who will prioritize bipartisanship? Will we have a president who will automatically rescind all of Trump’s illegal executive orders, or someone who believes the Bill of Rights is too woke to put at the top of the agenda?
None of these questions matter for the 2028 election, but they will determine who will win the 2032 election.
I believe we need the following:
- Ukrainian NATO accession is a priority.
- Human rights must be required to receive military aid.
- Repeal all of Trump’s unconstitutional Executive Orders on day one.
- Repair our foreign relations unapologetically.
- Reinstate US AID on day one, as required by law.
- Unapologetic support for human rights for everyone.
We need a president who will act decisively within the bounds of the law. We cannot compromise. We need a president who will protect and uphold our Constitution.
That will determine who wins the 2032 presidential election.