Here is a map of current United States governors. No governorships changed parties last year.
There is a lot of noise going around in centrist circles right now that Trump did not win the election because of Elon Musk last year. Elon Musk claims he hacked the election. Republicans also claimed that they would not cut Medicaid nor raise the deficit. Rule number 1: Republicans lie.
But that’s immaterial. Yes, if we assume a 50/50 chance Trump would win each of the 7 swing states with large majorities, without looking at any other factors, the odds are pretty low. But the problem is that every potential solution is technically a low probability. That doesn’t mean anything.
There’s another factor to the election. In order for Trump to have cheated his way to victory he would have had to successfully flip states under 5 Democratic governors last year. 5 democratic governors who did not investigate the election, and did not have sufficient evidence for fraud to start an investigation. 5 states where they have functional democratic parties, given how they won the governorships, and none of those 5 state level democratic parties found sufficient evidence to go to court or even start a recount.
Not only that, but on the same ballot as Harris, democrats actively won senate elections in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So if they did rig the election they rigged for the presidency but not the senate… how odd…
Plus, the governorships are held by Republicans in Virginia, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Why would the Republicans let Democrats win the election in these states if they were rigging nationwide? Why not deliver Virginia to Trump as well?
Because the truth is Harris lost. She was not a good candidate, and Biden made some obvious mistakes. He presided over a K-shaped recovery after the first Trump recession in 2020, meaning millions of Americans did not feel the economy recover. He had major foreign policy blunders in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Israel/Palestine. He failed to pass any significant legislation. Harris is uncharismatic, but Trump is charismatic for the voters he need to win. Harris had neither the incumbency advantage nor a trifecta advantage. She had only four keys to the presidency… no primary contest, no third party, no social unrest, and no scandal. With 9/13 keys Trump easily won the election.
The problem was the election was miscoded in Lichtman’s analysis.
Biden could have governed in a way which would have worked. He could have abolished the filibuster and passed the John Lewis Voting Rights Act as soon as he became president. That would have been a major policy change. 5 true keys.
He could have chosen to send the Trump/Taliban paper to congress before enacting it where it obviously would have failed. He could have defended Ukraine, and demanded Israel sign a proper mutual protection pact before sending them military aid. These decisions would have ensured he had no major military failure and given him a major military success by defeating Putin once and for all. 7 true keys.
Protecting Ukraine would have helped the economy, ensuring the economy keys would have been flipped true. 9 true keys.
A strong defense of Ukraine in 2022 would likely have ensured Biden would have kept congress. 10 true keys.
There was a clear path to victory in the 2024 election, and Biden decided that compromising with Republicans is more important than winning elections.
So it makes sense why Harris lost using robust political science metrics, once things are properly coded.
This is why I have written already why we need a fighter as president who will not just win the next election, which will be easy, but even more importantly we need a fighter who will keep her keys true in order to win reelection in 2032.
That is why I think AOC is the obvious choice to be the next president of these United States.
Harris lost because she was uncharismatic and Biden made a lot of mistakes.
The next election is going to be a doozy.
- Party mandate: Probably False, decided next year
- No primary contest: Probably False
- Incumbent seeking re-election: False, Trump cannot run again
- No third party: Probably False
- Strong short-term economy: Probably False
- Strong long-term economy: Probably False
- Major policy change: True, BBB counts
- No social unrest: Probably False
- No scandal: False, largest airstrike on Europe since WWII
- No foreign or military failure: False, largest airstrike on Europe since WWII
- Major foreign or military success: Probably False, Trump is hurting Ukraine and is unlikely to strike a good treaty with Israel/Palestine
- Charismatic incumbent: TBD
- Uncharismatic challenger: False
The next Republican candidate will likely have at most two True keys. There hasn’t been an election which is this much in favor of one party since Ronald Reagan in 1984. We have never seen an incumbent with 11 false keys in American history. The next election will be a landslide.
This is why we need to focus on someone who will govern in a way which will keep as many keys true as possible. Moderates had their chance with Joe Biden and he failed miserably. We need a president who will have better advisors on foreign policy, and I believe AOC is the candidate who will fulfill this requirement.
Trump won the election because Biden was a mediocre president. He fumbled foreign policy leading to a K-shaped recession. This gave Trump the victory.
This here explains why Republicans gleefully falsely claim they hacked the election. They are terrified of another president like Obama. They know that if Democrats nominate a charismatic leader with good policy chops they won’t just lose 2028, but they will also lose 2032. So they need Democrats not to analyze the mistakes of the Biden administration or Harris campaign, in order to nominate someone who will continue Trump’s foreign policy again. By getting New Democrats to obsess over how they claim they hacked the election under the noses of 4 democratic governors, those democrats are not looking at the very real flaws of the Biden administration. They get blinded and don’t stop to think about why all of these democratic administrations, county level democratic parties, state level democratic parties, and the national democratic party did not demand any recounts in the election. It postpones democrats asking the important questions of where Biden’s policy went wrong. This increases the chances that the next Democratic president will be someone like Biden, who will make the same mistakes again, increasing the chances the Republicans will win in 2032.
Republicans lying about hacking the election, as they lie about everything else, is part of their strategy to keep Americans under their spell.
We cannot afford to make this mistake again.
We need to nominate AOC for president in 2028.