Playing with my dataset today, I’m wondering about countries which are the most likely to improve rapidly in the near future.
Note: I usually use the UN definition of country but for the purpose of visa-free travel when I say “country” I am referring to every place which has their own separate visa policy, including places like Palestine, American Samoa, and Hong Kong. For purposes of visa-policies these places are effectively their own sovereign countries because they have their own visa policy. It just makes it easier.
I am first going to identify countries which are relatively democratic, low income, restrictive visa policies, and have weak passports.
Bhutan stands out in this category, it is the only country with a GDP per capita under $10,000, a positive Voice and Accountability Score, a restrictive visa policy with fewer than 100 who can enter visa free, and a weak passport offering visa-free access to only 43 countries. They have been rapidly opening up their society but still have a restrictive visa policy. The liberalization of Bhutan’s visa policy leading to their citizens having more travel freedom will improve the country. It was delisted as a least developed country in 2023. Continue clamping down on corruption and open up your visa policy. You are on the right track! The future for Bhutan is bright.
{'100+ visa free to enter': {'100+ visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 2,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 3},
'positive va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 43,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 16}},
'Under 100 visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 1,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 9},
'positive va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 0,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 7}}},
'Under 100 visa free to enter': {'100+ visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 4,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 6},
'positive va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 11,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 8}},
'Under 100 visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 6,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 64},
'positive va': {'GDP per capita over 10000': 0,
'GDP per capita under 10000': 18}}}}
Using GNI per capita, PPP instead:
{'100+ visa free to enter': {'100+ visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 4,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 1},
'positive va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 49,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 5}},
'Under 100 visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 2,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 6},
'positive va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 4,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 3}}},
'Under 100 visa free to enter': {'100+ visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 5,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 4},
'positive va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 14,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 5}},
'Under 100 visa free for passport': {'negative va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 19,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 45},
'positive va': {'GNI per capita, PPP over 10000': 4,
'GNI per capita, PPP under 10000': 13}}}}
There are 16 of countries which offer visa-free travel to over a hundred countries, can travel to over a hundred countries visa free, and have a positive Voice and Accountability Score, but have a GDP per capita under $10,000.
3 of these countries have a positive score on every World Governance Indicator. These countries are Dominica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Saint Lucia. Mauritius has a GDP per capita under $10k, but a much higher GNI per capita, PPP. These countries will likely see their economies grow with the right moves as they continue to develop. The main issue they have is they are all island nations with small populations. But they are free democracies. Their futures are bright.
The other 12 countries are Grenada, Kiribati, Albania, Moldova, Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. All of these countries are developing rapidly. Grenada and Kiribati are small island nations which makes development more difficult but not impossible. Preserve your democracies, grow your economies, root out remaining corruption, educate your population, and grow.
Many of these countries suffer from their mean years of schooling being under 10 years. Georgia has the highest mean years of schooling in this group. If Georgia is able to remove their illegitimate government and join NATO they will be able to again work on the reforms which are necessary to join the European Union and their economy will continue to grow. For the other countries, continue to ensure teenagers stay in school and life will improve.
There are 6 countries which allow over 100 countries to travel to their country visa-free, have a positive Voice and Accountability score, but cannot travel to 100 countries or more without some sort of visa. All of these countries have a GDP per capita over $10,000. They are Belize, Botswana, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Jamaica, Namibia, and Suriname. The answer is quite simple… increase mean years of schooling. This will improve your economy. With a stronger economy you will likely be able to get visa free access to more countries. Botswana has a positive score on every World Governance Indicator, and their mean years of schooling is about 10 years. As more teenagers in Botswana finish high school and continue on to college, their institutions will further improve, their economy will improve, and their travel freedom will expand.
There are 5 countries where the mean years of schooling is at least 11 years, with a positive voice and accountability score, a positive control of corruption score, and a GDP per capita under $10,000. These countries are, Romania, Georgia, Armenia, and Samoa. Malaysia is positive on every World Governance Indicator. These five countries are poised to continue to be quickly growing economies. Romania in particular because they are a member of the European Union.
But in terms of the country which I am most optimistic about becoming an officially developed country right now, that would be Botswana. Botswana is quickly developing, their mean years of schooling is over 10 years, and is very democratic.
The other two countries to look at are Armenia and Georgia. These two countries do poorly on political violence, and Armenia is struggling at government efficiency and rule of law as well, but these are the only two countries whose economies are growing rapidly, have an Economist Democracy Score over 5 and stand out as having immense economic potential. They are very well educated and will continue to grow economically, as long as their political environment is healthy.
Now, in terms of countries which are the least likely to develop in the near future.
72 countries have a negative score on every World Governance Indicator. Two of these countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina and Nicaragua) have over 100 countries they can travel to visa free and allow over 100 nationalities to travel to their country visa free. Afghanistan and Syria allow 1 and 17 countries to enter respectively and can travel to only 29 countries without a visa, because those countries do not have visas and allow anyone to travel there visa-free. I think Bosnia and Nicaragua have a great chance of improving soon, they just need to continue to boost their mean years of schooling which is around 10 years each. Aim for the average person to have a high school diploma.
In terms of countries which I am the most pessimistic about, I’m going to filter the world in a few ways. First let’s grab countries which have a score under -1 for every World Governance Indicator. These are Somalia, Chad, Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Haiti, Yemen, Myanmar, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iran, Venezuela, Libya, South Sudan, and Sudan. Syria appears but they just went through a major government transition and these scores are for the Assad regime. Of these the ones I am most pessimistic about are Somalia, Chad, Yemen, and Afghanistan, for obvious reasons.
South Sudan is particularly a bad case. It has a score under -2 for government effectiveness, political violence, regulatory quality, and rule of law. This is on top of a GDP per capita under $1000 and a literacy rate which was only 36% in 2008, the latest year for which I can find data. Chad and Central African Republic have the lowest rates in the world at 30% and 36% respectively. It’s impossible to compete with such low literacy. They are in a really bad place, corruption, poverty, and low literacy means they are dependent on foreign teachers to educate their children on the basics. Niger, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali are the only other countries with a literacy rate below 50% as far as I can tell. It will be a long time before these countries develop. Former French colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa dominate the list of the countries with the most severe social and political problems in the world.
We are likely to see a continued divergence between countries in the future. Countries with effective and democratic governments will continue to improve, while countries which do not have those factors will not. Without a significant domestic upheaval the ability for authoritarian regimes to collapse is very small. If an authoritarian regime is supported by an external factor, like how Russia props up the governments of Iran and used to prop up the government of Syria, it becomes near impossible for the people to replace their dictator.
Once a country has transitioned to a democracy, the most important factor for their economic growth is their education level. We have seen massive economic growth in Eastern Europe because they have high levels of education and only recently democratized. Latin America saw a wave of democratization in the second half of the twentieth century, but decades of Catholic influence meant the average person was not very well educated. This has prevented their economies from reaching their true potential. Governments in Latin America know this and they are working hard to educate their citizens sufficiently.
Latin American countries will continue to improve the education of their citizens which will lead them to a point where their economies will suddenly start to boom once they have enough people who are competitive on the global market.
Undeveloped African countries and Afghanistan require revolution to improve, which must come from the people. External invasion for democracy can end up in a failed Iraq situation. Tunisia is the prime example of a country which improved not because of foreign support but due to the people simply having enough of the nonsense.
For countries at risk of democratic backsliding, the United States and Georgia are the most at risk in the world. Neither countries are members of open border treaties, and both have radical governments at the moment. Hungary and Slovakia have membership in Schengen, so they are safe. We must protect our democracies in solidarity with each other. We are under attack.
But if Georgia manages to overthrow the Georgian dream, Georgia is the country most likely to develop in the near future. Malaysia is rapidly developing and I expect this trend will continue as they become a high income economy over the next decade. This is my current projection for the next decade.