What a couple of days it has been… Ukraine has destroyed a substantial portion of Russia’s air force and today they successfully attacked the Kerch Strait Bridge. We are clearly in the last steps of this war, and it will be over by the end of the year with Ukraine regaining all of its territory.
Now we just need the Russian front to collapse from a lack of supplies as Ukraine does more attacks on Russian military targets, destroying the Russian supply lines, causing a collapse of their military.
Once Ukraine has won, Russia’s economy will collapse as it is so dependent on the military right now for economic vitality. Their foreign reserves are collapsing, food prices are skyrocketing. Their economy is on the edge of total collapse, and if history is any predictor, this means the probability Putin will be removed from power this year is increasing rapidly. Just like the Tsar and the Supreme Soviet.
Trump has nothing to do with this.
Even without the sanctions, Russia would still be collapsing because of the lack of manpower due to the ongoing war. The sanctions have had little effect. Russia is still trading openly with China, Central Asia, and India. Their exports of oil have increased to China at the discount which has kept their economy running. Because this is the thing about sanctions and tariffs in a multi-polar world… they don’t tend to work very well. This doesn’t mean we should not use them, but unilateral sanctions are quite weak.
Ukraine has now gotten to the point where they have enough military equipment to not need NATO as much as they did three years ago. They have reached the point where due to the strain on Russia’s economy and Ukraine being able to continue to build their own military industrial complex they will definitely win. NATO should still send weapons though, because that will merely hasten Ukraine’s victory.
Also, Ukraine will be seeking multilateral protection pacts even if they will be unable to join NATO in the near future given right-wing governments in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. By seeking out unilateral protection pacts with both Germany and France, Ukraine will get sufficient security to be able to focus on making the necessary reforms to hasten their EU membership.
I predict all of this will happen by the end of the year.
Regarding Israel… Only the United States and Israel seem to oppose the immediate release of the hostages in Gaza right now, among a handful of other countries less involved in the conflict. 70% of Israeli voters do not trust their government. The probability of Likud losing the next election is almost a guarantee at this point with 70% of Israelis wanting Netanyahu to resign.
Once the war ends, Netanyahu will be dragged back to court, and he will almost certainly be convicted on corruption charges. The end of the War in Gaza will be the end of his government, so he must continue the war as long as possible. He also has an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, something they don’t do lightly.
So will the War in Gaza end this year? I have no idea. I kind of doubt it honestly. Netanyahu has the full backing of the US government and he will be able to return to either the United States or Russia with few questions asked because he can return to either country by right. He is a member of the Russian diaspora, his family lived in New York before emigrating to Israel. I don’t think Netanyahu will ever see consequences for his crimes against humanity. Netanyahu fleeing Israel at the end of this war for asylum in the US or Russia is a guarantee.
If Netanyahu flees Israel, it looks like the opposition will win, but don’t expect much to change. The only centrist, arguably center-left, party which is projected to win more than 10 seats is The Democrats. Every other party supports the construction of more illegal and destabilizing settlements in the West Bank, whether they are part of the government or not. Israeli society has moved very far to the right in the last decade, more than any other democracy. There is effectively no opposition.
Nothing will fundamentally change in Israel. The United States should let them govern themselves and withdraw. Our influence there is not helpful, only destructive. Our influence there is making Israel-Palestinian relations worse. It gives them few consequences for their decisions, and funds an endless war with no end. The best thing to do is pull our military support and then they will have the necessity to work with their neighbors diplomatically. The endless supply of weapons is destabilizing the region, putting Jews and Muslims around the world in danger. The fighting enflames tensions, empowering violent extremists. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be solved by violence alone. There needs to be diplomacy and the establishment of laws for Israeli-Palestinian relations based on shared humanity. This will not happen as long as you have the dangerous combination of a right-wing government and endless weapons. Our policy there is profoundly anti-Semitic, and it needs to change.
My philosophy regarding war has been deeply influenced by the Russian and Israeli wars over the last few years. When there is an obvious case of a sovereign democratic state being invaded by an authoritarian regime, the only option is to support the democracy with weapons, give advice, but let them lead because they are the ones at war. But when it comes to civil wars like in Israel/Palestine, it becomes very complicated. The relations between Hamas and Likud are extremely complex as I have explored before from Israeli sources, and the best thing to do is just not get involved. The two major wars could not possibly be more different.
Regarding the United States, we will have elections next year, Democrats will almost certainly win, and hopefully they will be more forceful than Biden was. We need Democrats who are unwilling to compromise with fascism, because the Republican Party has gone off the cliff. These are not your great-grandparents Republicans of the 1950s. The modern Republican Party is a radical nationalist movement inspired by Putin. They cannot remain a major party in a free and democratic society. Democrats need to win and make a clear argument why they should hold government. We need to push the Overton Window back towards liberalism and make the modern Republican Party unelectable.
There are no clear imminent changes in the rest of the world for this year as far as I can tell. China will be able to fully replace Russia’s support of North Korea, so no change. The loss of Russian political influence in media will allow cooler heads to have more of a voice, and this will take a few years. The loss of Russian support in countries like Burkina Faso could cause some much-needed regime change.
The loss of Russian support in Iran could start to bleed that regime dry and bring back another round of protests, within a few years.
These are my predictions. The main events are of course the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Gaza War. Other major wars are unlikely to change any time soon.
References:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War