Almost every President in history has run for a second term. This is common knowledge, but there are a few presidents who have not been their party’s nomination in the general election following their term.
3 President have chosen not to run before the nomination
- James Polk – pledged to not run for reelection in 1848
- James Buchanan – pledged to not run for reelection in 1860
- Rutherford Hayes – pledged to not run for reelection in 1880
4 Presidents attempted to run but lost the convention
- Millard Fillmore – 1852
- Franklin Pierce – 1856
- Andrew Johnson – 1868
- Chester Arthur – 1884
1 President was expelled from his party.
- John Tyler – 1844
1 President dropped out between the primaries and the convention
- Joe Biden – 2024
For comparison, we can break down presidents like so to understand this is not normal.
- 16 Presidents who have won a majority of the vote in their first election
- 7 Presidents who have won a majority of the vote twice (Jackson, Grant, McKinley, FDR, Eisenhower, Reagan, Obama)
- 5 Presidents then lost their reelection (Van Buren, Taft, Hoover, Carter, HW Bush)
- 2 died in office (William Henry Harrison and Harding)
- Pierce lost his party’s nomination.
- Joe Biden dropped out after winning his party’s primaries in 2024.
- 11 Presidents won a plurality but not a majority in their first election
- 2 Presidents won a majority for their reelection (Lincoln, Nixon)
- 3 Presidents won a plurality but not a majority the second time around (Cleveland, Wilson, Bill Clinton)
- 2 didn’t run (Polk and Buchanan)
- 3 died in office (Taylor, Garfield, Kennedy)
- Grover Cleveland lost in 1888 but won again in 1892.
- 5 Presidents lost the popular vote the first time around.
- George W Bush then won a majority on his second attempt.
- 2 Presidents lost reelection (JQ Adams and Benjamin Harrison)
- Hayes chose not to run again in 1880.
- Trump then lost his first reelection attempt and won a plurality but not a majority in 2024.
- 5 Presidents did not have a national popular vote (Washington, John Adams, Jefferson, Monroe, Madison)
- 9 Vice Presidents have become President upon the death or resignation of a president.
- 3 chose not to run (Tyler, Fillmore, Arthur)
- 3 then won a majority of the popular vote (T Roosevelt, Coolidge, LBJ)
- Truman won a plurality but not a majority in 1848.
- Ford lost in 1976.
- Andrew Johnson and Chester Arthur lost the nominations for their reelection.
So with that being said, Biden is the only president who dropped out after winning the primary.
He is the oldest president in history. He was having health problems last year, and that’s part of aging. But the problem is that it led the country into an unprecedented situation no matter what he did. Reagan was not feeble when he ran for reelection like Biden was last year. Neither was Trump in 2020. No other president has been president after the age of 71. So there are really no historical examples to go off of for such an elderly man running for reelection.
Did Biden make the right call in running for reelection? I don’t think so given the knowledge which has come out. Democrats have made a horrible mistake by covering up Biden’s health and keeping him out of the spotlight. Journalists are going to figure out who is responsible for this callous mistake.
If Biden had chosen to not run in the primary in light of his health problems he would have been the first President to voluntarily step down after one term since Chester Arthur, who died the following year. Looking back this is now obviously the right choice. But as I wrote in my previous post it is very unlikely that someone from Biden’s caucus would have won the primary. If progressive Democrats had only one major candidate in the primary the progressive would probably have won. AOC is probably the progressive democrat with the most popularity and name recognition to win the primary and the presidency if she had run for the nomination. Biden’s handling of Gaza, Afghanistan, and Ukraine would have been the major issues in the primary if it had occurred, which likely would have sunk the chance of anyone from Biden’s cabinet running again.
The real damage done here by silencing not just Biden’s cabinet but every Democratic politician regarding Biden’s health is that if progressives had been stating their concerns earlier they would have been shut out by the party machine. Accused of being Trumpers, Anti-Semites, you know the drill. But by successfully silencing almost everyone in the party it has made it clear that the Democratic Party’s very core needs to be reformed. This is a major problem with a two-party system. If we had ranked voting instead of an Electoral College and a separate progressive party forming a coalition with the New Democrats we would not have had these problems. We need election reform.
All of this was meant to squeeze out just a little more life from a dying caucus. Harris is favorable now, but she had mostly unfavorable polls through all of Biden’s presidency post-Taliban victory. She would not have won the primary. The next three most popular democrats are Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and AOC.
Tim Walz has seen his popularity and fame increase because he was on a ticket with Harris. Buttigieg and any other member of the cabinet would need to explain his stance about the foreign policy of the Biden administration which would lose all of them votes. Gavin Newsom is too conservative to win the primary or the general election. Cory Booker is too quick to confirm Trump’s nominees. These are serious issues which should sink any campaign.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot, and while AOC is not a sitting governor or senator, there are very few other politicians under the age of 70 with the fame and popularity she has and lacking the political liabilities of Trump/Biden’s foreign policy. I think she would have won the primary if she had run, and definitely would have won the general election. There isn’t really anyone else to come out of the woodwork and steal the nomination from her.
This is why Biden stayed in the race longer than he should have, which is now obvious. He knew that if he had dropped out it is all but certain that a progressive democrat would have won the nomination last year. Progressives stayed silent fearing retribution from the party machine. New Democrats stayed silent out of loyalty to Biden. The two are not the same.
There is no one else from Biden’s caucus who is going to be able to win a nationwide primary. Before Warren dropped out Biden was polling only around 30-40% of the vote in every state except Alabama and Virginia. Sanders + Warren were beating Biden in every state in the north, and I’m convinced that if it had been a Warren vs Biden primary that Warren would have won the nomination. Biden knew from that that he had no choice but to stay in the race or Harris would lose the nomination to a progressive democrat. She would be forced to defend withholding aid from Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and the surrender to the Taliban on stage in a debate with a Democrat and Harris would not have won the nomination.
This is why Biden stayed in the race.
As a result, he has completely destroyed all remaining credibility for his caucus.