Geographical determinism is a theory which gets thrown around sometimes in amateur political science circles, but ultimately it doesn’t make a lot of sense, neither does it have significant predictive power. cc ge pv rl rq va GDP per capita Homicide Rate Population Latitude Landlocked CPI score 2021 Overall Score Homicide Rate -0.208828 -0.222991 -0.074121 …
Monthly Archives: April 2025
Why Democrats will win in 2026
I just wrote How Democrats and Republicans Win, read that first. So we have 7 keys to win control of the House of Representatives, along with my projection: Strong short-term economy: False Strong long-term economy: False Major policy change: False No foreign or military failure: False, alienating NATO and tariff policy Major foreign or military …
How Democrats and Republicans win
Before reading this, read 2024 Was Lost On Turnout if you haven’t already. The secret to winning elections is turning out your base. Republicans won in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2010, and 2014 because of a collapse in turnout for the Democrats. Republicans consistently see more consistent voting in House elections in Presidential election years vs …
Proof of the power of Visas
Brexit is shrinking crowds at Britain’s biggest art galleries This paper from iNews in the UK has proved that visitor numbers to UK galleries have collapsed 20-50 percent compared to 2019 while art galleries in the European Union have seen no such decline. All of this is from Brexit. Brexit has been devastating to the …
Probability of a perfect match
What’s the probability that a candidate will have exactly your tech stack at their previous job for a web developer position? Assuming an even distribution: (I know, a horrible assumption) Let’s say you are looking at only three options: AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. There are more options than this. Your web server likely …
Why we switched away from tariffs
It’s quite simple… we switched away from tariffs because the tax burden fell mostly on the working-class while the robber barons got away with paying almost nothing. In a pre-industrial feudal system, this was to be expected for a few main reasons: Life expectancy was very low, around 40 years as of 1900. The average …