The beginning of the expansion of the Russian Empire began when Moscow conquered Novgorod in 1478, leading to 500 years of uncontrolled expansion across northern Eurasia.
World War I is when the story becomes quite interesting. Germany conquered Poland from the Russian Empire in 1917, and at the end of the war instead of giving Poland back to Russia, Poland became independent. Finland and the Baltic States also gained independence as a result of the Bolshevik Revolution. This infuriated Russia.
In the early 1920s the Soviet Union conquered Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Smaller countries who did not have the support or manpower to counter the invasions.
During the 1920s and 1930s the Soviet Union did not have the military power to continue unchecked military expansion across Eurasia. Focusing more on industrial self-sabotage through actions like the Holodomor.
But this changed in 1939. Russia attacked Finland and Poland in the same year. Germany also attacked Poland. The goal of the Nazis and communists was simple, take back the land they believed was wrongfully stolen from them during the Bolshevik Revolution and World War I. No one helped Finland and Poland. After reconquering the lands “stolen” from their empires, they would continue to conquer the rest of the world. If Hitler had not betrayed Stalin, I believe their plan would have worked.
At the end of World War II, an array of democracies were established in the area that had been conquered by Nazi Germany. The Soviet Union invaded each of these countries and brought them under de facto Soviet Rule under the Warsaw Pact. NATO was formed in 1949 in response to these invasions. United we stand, divided we fall.
As a result of the formation of NATO and the European Coal and Steel Community, the Soviet Union spent the rest of the Cold War focused on Asia. Vietnam was partitioned in 1954, the same year that SEATO was established. Given the experiences in Eastern Europe and Korea at the beginning of the Cold War, everyone knew that an independent South Vietnam without alliances would not stand a chance. SEATO was created a direct response to these invasions. The Vietnam War started in 1955, and lasted for 20 years. The Soviet Union won that war.
After their success in Vietnam, the Soviet Union turned to Afghanistan. They saw Afghanistan as a small country which would be easily conquered, but given the amount of aid given to the Mujaheddin by the United States and Gulf States, they were unable to conquer Afghanistan. The Mujaheddin won, and remained in power until 2001, after rebranding to become the Taliban.
Russia continued its expansion with support of separatist movements in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria in the 1990s and 2000s. They prevented the independence of Chechnya and Dagestan.
Finally in 2008 Russia launched its first full-scale invasion since the breakup of the Soviet Union when they invaded Georgia. NATO failed to defend Georgia fully, leaving Abkhazia and South Ossetia under de facto Russian control.
6 years later, they invaded Ukraine, conquering Crimea, Donbass, and Luhansk.
The playbook of Russia is simple, they will continuously invade every neighboring country they can until there is nowhere else they can invade. This has been a continual theme of Russian politics for 600 years. That is Russian political culture.
The only realistic way to stop the Russian playbook is expansion of NATO to include every democracy bordering Russia, meaning Georgia and Ukraine. Every other plan is pure fantasy.
