Over the last century, we have had 8 Democratic presidents, Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden.
Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, and Johnson were the New Deal/Great Society/progressive coalition. This coalition dominated a Democratic party which was divided between the north and the south. The only one who did not win reelection was Kennedy because he was assassinated. They won their reelections by healthy margins in the electoral college, and only Truman received less than 50% of the popular vote in his only time on the ballot.
Then we see a shift in the party to a more moderate take with the New Democrats. Carter, Clinton, and Biden are clearly of this caucus. Only Clinton won reelection.
Obama does not clearly identify as a New Democrat or as a Progressive, because he is somewhere in the middle of the two camps. He is a mainstream democrat.
This brings me to the idea of why was Bill Clinton the only moderate Democrat to win reelection in the last century? I did a deep dive into the Clinton presidency in 2019, and this article is a much delayed follow up.
Using Keys to the White House, Clinton got lucky in how Bob Dole was uncharismatic, the economy was strong, and America was at peace. He also got unlucky with the presence of a third party with Ross Perot running again. He is rated as not having passed any major policy, but he also passed a lot of smaller but significant pieces of legislation.
Basically, Clinton won reelection because he was not a very flashy president. He was a stable president through a strong economy which was seeing the benefits of investments made decades ago through the computer revolution. Everyone was seeing the benefits, and America was not involved in any major foreign wars. We had a few UN missions, such as Somalia and Yugoslavia during his presidency, but no major wars like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s.
Essentially, if you are going to govern as a moderate, don’t rock the boat and get lucky. As long as the economy is strong, you don’t do anything crazy, and keep us at peace, you will likely win reelection.
Winning elections comes down to not screwing up. Clinton did not screw up in his first term, so he won reelection.
Failed reelection campaigns
The first failed reelection campaign was in 1800, only our third presidential election. Adams’ presidency was dominated by neutrality during the French Revolution and the Alien and Sedition Acts. I need to write an article specifically on the first Adams administration someday exploring why he lost to Jefferson. This election led to the 12th Amendment due to Jefferson and Burr tying in the Electoral College. Our original election system was a rough draft, and we are currently on the first release version.
His son, John Quincy Adams also lost reelection. He lost both the popular and electoral vote on the first count, leading to the insane rules we had in that era, using the rules from the 12th amendment to the constitution which made the process better, but still insane. Since no candidate had won a majority of the Electoral College, each state voted as a single unit with one vote each. Adams won 13 states to the 7 states voting for Jackson, and 4 for Crawford. Adams won the most states, so he became president.
The 1828 presidential election was lost primarily due to the Tariff of 1828 which significantly harmed the South and (Mid)West. Adams continued to dominate in New England, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland, as Jackson carried the rest of the country. This brought down the Second Adams Administration.
Martin Van Buren failed to win reelection in 1840. I believe the main reason for this is the Panic of 1837. He had a plan to remedy the source of the problem, was unable to convince members of congress to agree with him. Whigs wanted a national bank. Democrats wanted a more moderate proposal. Nothing was done to fix the crisis, and William Henry Harrison defeated Van Buren as a consequence.
1844 is a weird election. President Tyler refused to run for reelection. Tyler had successfully managed to alienate basically everybody through his opposition to a national bank, support for slavery, and was generally a horrible president. He chose not to run for reelection, leading to James Polk winning a large majority in the Electoral College, while being a fairly small margin in the popular vote.
1848 once again saw the incumbent President Polk choose not to run for reelection. Former President Martin Van Buren captured 10% of the vote as a third party spoiler, giving victory to the Whigs. This is of course a Key to the White House.
The presidency once again flipped in 1852 back to the Democrats. President Fillmore was a deeply unpopular president who signed the Fugitive Slave Act despite being a Whig. President Pierce won most states in the north and the south to become president, losing only 4.
The 1860 election is famous for electing President Lincoln. President Buchanan tried to compromise his way to stability to prevent a civil war, and in the process ended up alienating everybody. The Whig Party had dissolved at this point and rebranded as the Republican Party. Lincoln won every state in the north, and the Electoral College.
The presidency stayed in the hands of the Republicans (basically) until 1884 when Grover Cleveland narrowly beat out James G. Blaine. Cleveland won a narrow 0.1% margin of victory in New York and the election. Blaine was known for being corrupt, and Cleveland carried the Solid South.
1888 was the second election in American history where the winner of the popular vote (Cleveland) lost the Electoral College, giving Harrison a victory. By flipping New York state, Harrison became president.
The presidency flipped again in 1892, due to the Populist James B. Weaver stealing votes from President Harrison. Democrats opposed expanding voting rights to African Americans, giving them a solid victory in the South. Grover Cleveland was the only Democratic president between James Buchanan and Woodrow Wilson.
The second Cleveland presidency was mired in a depression, leading to McKinley winning the election in 1896. President McKinley became the first president to win reelection since President Grant.
The 1912 election swung to Wilson due to a spoiler from Theodore Roosevelt’s Progressive Party.
The nation was mired in a recession, there was a strong third party, the United States did not join the League of Nations, and massive strikes by unions led to the Republican Warren Harding winning the 1920 election.
The Great Depression and President Hoover’s uncharismatic nature gave the 1932 election to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
The 1952 election was lost due to the fall of China to communism, a divisive primary contest in the democratic party, congressional investigations into corruption during the Truman administration, and a lack of charisma from Stevenson.
There was no way the Republicans could win the 1960 election, with both foreign policy keys and both economic keys flipped false. It’s amazing the election was as close as it was.
The chaos of 1968 with a divisive primary, large debates about the Vietnam War, plus protests with the assassination of both Malcolm X and Dr. King led to Nixon winning the presidency.
There was absolutely no way a Republican was going to win in 1976 after the Watergate Scandal.
With a weak economy and a primary contest, Reagan won the 1980 presidential election.
Another recession in 1991 led to Clinton winning the presidential election in 1992.
The 2000 election was the closest in American history, and Al Gore probably did win the election.
With the largest recession since the Great Depression, Obama easily won the 2008 election.
Clinton probably did win the 2016 presidential election. If she had more charisma, she definitely would have won by losing fewer votes to third parties.
Biden was running against the plague in 2020, giving him an easy victory.
2024 was mired with the wars in Palestine and Ukraine, the terrorists had won in Afghanistan, plus the K-shaped recovery following COVID due to the invasion of Ukraine gave Trump the victory.
So what
By examining exactly why the presidency has changed parties through American history, we find a few clear trends quickly emerge.
- Economic crises usually lead to a flip of the presidency.
- Foreign policy can absolutely make a difference in opinion about the president, like in 1952 and 2024.
- Incumbents refusing to run for a second term usually leads to a party flip, like in 1844, 1848, 1852, 1856, and 2024.
- Charisma absolutely matters, as we saw in 1840, 1932, and 2024.
- No third party spoilers, as we saw in 1848, 1912, 1992, 2000, and 2016.
This tells us about the type of person we need to run as president if we care about them winning reelection. Here is what I think the most electable president would look like in general:
- They either need good economic policy chops themselves or be able to surround themselves with the best economists who can give excellent advice. Obama excelled at this.
- They need strong foreign policy chops in order to have a stable world. There is no modern example of such a president, since Clinton had no major foreign policy successes.
- They need to be able to run for a second term. I’m sorry Warren and Sanders, you are both amazing people, but we should have a president who is under 70 to guarantee they can stay in solid health for 8 years.
- We need someone with very strong charisma, and this is easily measured through a candidate’s ability to get people to engage both online and in person.
- Be popular with a wide enough percentage of your voters so they don’t abandon your party for a third party.
Cutting to the chase, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez should be our candidate in 2028.
- She will certainly have the best economic advisors around her.
- Her understanding of foreign policy is better than most other politicians. She is a liberal internationalist and supports Ukraine joining NATO.
- She’s in her 30s, she will definitely be able to serve for 8 years.
- Her social media skills are unparalleled. She commands the room when she speaks.
Cory Booker is coming up more and more, but he supports sending Israel weapons. His foreign policy chops are weak.
Gavin Newsom is uncharismatic when it comes to social issues.
Either of them would have to get lucky like Clinton did in 1996 in order to win reelection. All they need are two major foreign policy failures, and a Republican could win in 2032, economics be damned. The major difference in the world today is that with Russia more strong than they are in the 1990s, foreign policy will play a bigger role than it did for President Clinton. The necessity to expand NATO further and bring America diplomatically closer to our natural allies is more important now than any other point in history.
AOC is the obvious candidate for 2028 and 2032. She will win. She needs to be president.
