First of all, nobody except the Russian government wants Ukraine to be at war. However, we must carefully consider how to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.
The most crucial aspect is Ukraine’s need for security guarantees from NATO and the European Union. This is non-negotiable.
Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be respected. Crimea, Donbass, Luhansk, these are Ukrainian territories, and the government of Ukraine would need a constitutional amendment to give them to Russia. That amendment would certainly fail. There is no realistic legal pathway to territorial concessions.
The last and most important piece is that Ukraine currently has the upper hand. Russia’s economy is on the verge of collapse. Russia’s air defense is truly pathetic. Ukraine is continuously striking Russian military targets in Russia with very cheap drones. These strikes are catastrophic to Russia’s war machine. As Ukraine has been saying for three years now, if they have enough drones with enough firepower, they will win the war. They can collapse Russia’s supply lines, causing the frontline to surrender, and quickly take back all of their territory.
I want there to be a lasting peace in Ukraine, which is why I believe Angela Merkel was the worst leader of Germany since 1945. But I also want to be realistic. Ukraine has the upper hand now. To end the war today without retaking Ukrainian territory, without Ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by Russians being returned to their families, or Ukrainian foster families if their families have been genocided, is premature.
I made the chart at the top over a year ago as Ukraine was still spinning up its military defense. At the time, my chart was correct. But I’m not convinced that is true anymore. Ukraine is now producing over $35 billion of weapons per year, a 35x increase from 2022. Total annual military aid to Ukraine is around $20 billion per quarter, or $80 billion per year. Ukraine can now almost completely replace American weapons with its domestic production. This is why Trump’s (possibly illegal) elimination of aid to Ukraine is not a death blow to Ukraine. If Ukraine doubles its production even further, and it continues to focus on the right weapons for a defensive war, it will become impossible for Russia to defeat them.
When I originally made the flowchart above, it was correct, but the growth of Ukraine into a major global military-industrial player has significantly changed the situation. Even if Europe were to cut all of its aid to Ukraine, I believe we are at the point in time now where it is impossible for Russia to defeat Ukraine. It’s also extremely unlikely that every country in Europe will cut off aid to Ukraine. That is a Russophilic fantasy. Ukraine will have support for as long as it takes from multiple European countries. Ukraine has already won the war; now is not the time to give Putin a stalemate he does not deserve.
If we do not see Ukraine win the war today, I can already see Fico, Orban, and Trump argue that Ukraine needs to formally renounce their claims to Donbass, Luhansk, and Crimea, otherwise not be given membership in NATO. They know renunciation cannot be legally done. It will simply be to preserve Putin’s regime, and this will teach a clear lesson that the United States and Europe will not honor the UN charter. The loss of international respect for international borders and stating that actions like the Anschluss and annexation of the Sudetenland will now be tolerated will be severely destabilizing for the future of the world.
In the scenario of a ceasefire, Ukraine will neither be able to renounce their territory, nor be given necessary security guarantees. Sanctions on Russia will drop, and they will invade Ukraine in the future. This is merely a repeat of the 2014 ceasefire, not a recipe for long-term peace.
Every time Ukraine has an opportunity they have elected left-wing presidents like Yuschenko and Zelensky who have been fighting corruption, and focused on aligning their country with EU acquis and joining NATO to preserve their independence. There was no legitimate reason to refuse the accession of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO in 2008. The argument that Merkel was right to refuse the accession of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO because of corruption is nothing more than a Russian talking point.
A stalemate in Ukraine guarantees future wars, definitely in Ukraine, but possibly in other countries.
They only bring up peace talks when Ukraine is winning. These moderate and conservative politicians around the world are leading us to the precipice of disaster. It’s past time for pragmatic progressives like President Macron to take the lead.
Give Ukraine what it needs, allow it to use the drones effectively, and help it with military intelligence.
That is the only realistic path to peace in Ukraine.
