Greenland is talking about independence, and they have had pro-independence parties in power for the last 4 years, but there has been no major movement towards independence so far. I already wrote an article about how Greenlandic independence could be worse for Greenlanders if the rights they already enjoy to live and work in the Schengen Area/European Union/EEA are not preserved, despite the opposite not being true, and they also would lose trade privileges with the European Union which definitely boost their impressive economy. Greenland has a GDP per capita of over $68,100, which places them next to Germany. A lot of their government funding comes from Denmark as I described, so Greenlandic independence is complicated in how it relates to their welfare.
I suspect that as their leaders who campaign as being pro-independence have looked into the details of what independence will mean for Greenland they are realizing that it is not the 1950s anymore, and they don’t want to harm the well being of their country. Secession without serious negative impacts would take a long time to properly negotiate and they must ensure the accession to various organizations will be in effect upon independence. As a country with a small population and a lot of land they really cannot afford to be invaded by Russia, which is a possibility if they were to leave Denmark and NATO.
However, there are some independence movements which make a lot of sense.
- There are many separatist movements in Russia, and as Russia becomes more authoritarian and impoverished it makes a lot of sense for non-Russian areas to separate from Russia. These are best represented by the Free Nations League.
- Both East Turkestan and Tibet have governments in exile and independence movements from China.
- Kurdistan is significantly different from the countries they are part of and have desired independence for decades. They lack any formal voice in Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
- Almost every region in Burma desires independence. This makes sense given the instability of the country after decades of authoritarian rule by their military dicatatorship.
- The same can be said about Pakistan, where most regions desire to be separated from Pakistan, and given Pakistan’s insane politics, it makes sense.
- Ambazonia has been fighting for independence from Cameroon since 2017.
- Katanga desires independence from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- Most regions of Ethiopia want independence.
- Somaliland has been de facto independent from Somalia for over a decade, and they should probably be granted formal recognition.
- Darfur underwent a genocide in the 2000s, and they should have independence from Sudan.
These regions are far more likely to see independence than Greenland in the near future. They do not enjoy fair representation in their governments, there is rampant current ongoing discrimination, their governments fail to provide them proper services to allow them to develop, and there is really no reason not to support their secession.
Greenland is the opposite, as I described in my original article. Greenland has representation, they have significant autonomy, being part of Denmark provides significant rights they enjoy that they will lose upon independence, and through Denmark they are tied in with the European Union’s economy. All of those benefits will be lost upon independence.
The regions mentioned in this article do not have any of those benefits. There is no benefit for any of these regions to stay in their current countries, and many costs to staying. They do not receive money from their government, they are currently discriminated against, they do not have meaningful representation, and being part of their existing government does not give the people in these countries free access to the European Union, or any similar bloc.
When determining whether a region should have independence, what ultimately matters is how independence will impact the people. When being part of a country does not provide a strong passport and the right to live and work in other countries, when the government does not provide basic services to the people of a region, when the existing government is violent towards ethnic minorities, and when there is no democratic framework for the people of a colonized region to voice their grievances, this is when independence offers a real shot to improve the lives of the people of a region.
Greenland does not pass any of these tests. They have the unique advantage of having almost complete control over their own affairs, they enjoy one of the most powerful passports in the world as Danish citizens, they have freedom of movement to the European Union, and half of the government’s budget is provided by the Danish government, not local tax revenue. All of those advantages will be lost upon independence. I cannot find any article by independence supporters clearly laying out which benefit independence will bring which will outweigh the benefits of the status quo.
If I had to pick the one independence movement which is most worthy of succeeding because it will most likely provide the largest potential improvement in the quality of life for the people of the region, Katanga is likely the region that would most likely benefit from independence. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is ruled by an authoritarian dictator. Their economy is extremely poor, the government has far from a monopoly on violence. Homicide is high, their passport is very weak, and there is no reason for Katanga to stay as part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When you have hit rock bottom, the only place to go is up, and that is the situation in Katanga. The DRC is the largest country which scores under -1 for every World Governance Indicator. It’s hard to imagine how life could get worse for Katangans if they managed to fully secede from the DRC. For these reasons, I believe Katanga should be independent and form a democratic system of government to improve the general welfare of Katangans. They underwent a civil war in the 1960s to breakaway, but given the dire situation in the country, and given how bad the situation is in the region, I would be surprised if Katanga does not attempt to gain its independence again.