I think this summer is going to be marked by Ukrainian victories, as long as the calls for ceasefires from Moscow end.
Ever since Ukraine took the Kursk region Moscow has been calling for ceasefire after ceasefire, which they consistently break. Moscow does not want a ceasefire, they want Ukraine to cease firing.
But this brings up an important question with a very simple answer… why is Russia calling for a ceasefire now but not when Biden was president?
The first reason is that while Biden was timid on Ukraine he was not on Russia’s side.
The second reason is that, according to Tsar Putin, Russia is running out of weapons.
When Ukraine stops firing into Russia it gives Russia time to maneuver its weapons for the next attack. This is the purpose of a ceasefire. When Russia is on the backfoot, have Ukraine stop firing weapons to restart the endless stalemate.
There were a handful of ceasefires in the war so far, and Russia violated all of them.
So the right strategy is obvious.
- Send Ukraine everything we can so they can blow up Russian military bases.
- Do not start any more ceasefires until it is a peace treaty with a complete defeat for Russia.
Otherwise the war will continue forever, as I have outlined in this decision tree I made last year:
I think this war could end this year if Ukraine has the right weapons and the right strategy. This will be followed up by unilateral security guarantees until Ukraine can join both the Common Security and Defence Policy as well as NATO. It will end the same way Assad was defeated, a slow grind until Russia runs out of ammunition leading to a sudden collapse of the front line and Ukraine winning the war.
We saw it in Syria last year. I think the end of the Invasion of Ukraine will end the same way.
This is the true purpose of every cease fire agreement Russia begs for. They must prevent Ukraine from getting an advantage at which point they will break through the Russian front line and win the war.
Ceasefires do not bring peace or safety to Ukrainians, quite the opposite really. Ceasefires are Russian realignments meant to enable their troops to reposition themselves to rape Ukrainian women, murder Ukrainian men, and kidnap Ukrainian children. They are timed when Ukraine gets an advantage.
So the rest of NATO needs to follow Chancellor Merz’s lead and send Ukraine as many weapons as possible, especially unmanned equipment in order to destroy Russia’s military bases in Russian territory.
This is the only way the war can end.
Slava Ukraine.