Start by reading this article: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/experts/2022/04/7/7137272/
History of the North Caucasus
Eras:
• Pre-historic Iranian and Turkic cultures
• Scythians: 900 BC – 300 BC
• Sarmations: 600 BC – 500 AD
• Huns: 370s-469
• Khazars: 650-969
• Cumania: 900 – 1241
• Mongols: 1238 – 1502
• Ottoman Empire: 1476 – 1774
• Russia: 1557 – present
The North Caucasus has been inhabited for tens of thousands of years, originally by a mixture of Turkic and Mongolic cultures until the arrival of Russi in the 16th century.
Scythian is an Iranic language.
Sarmatian is an Iranic language.
Khazars are a Turkic people, the ancestors of the Ossetians.
Cumans spoke a Turkic language. They are the ancestors of the Crimean Tatars.
The Mongols invaded in 1238 and remained in power until 1502.
The Ottoman Empire ruled Crimea and the area around the Sea of Azov until they were defeated by Russia.
Russia invaded the North Caucasus in 1557 and rule to the present.
The North Caucasus were a primarily Iranian region until the Russians invaded, with some Turkish people as well.
Ukrainians were originally based around Kyiv. Ukrainians moved into what is now Crimea following the victory of the Russian Empire and conquering of Crimea in 1774. To this very day the most densely populated regions of Ukraine are the areas which were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Regarding Ukraine’s demographics, most of them self-identify as ethnic Ukrainians. There are ethnic Russians in Crimea, primarily because they were sent there during the ethnic cleansing of the Tatars in 1944 when all Tatars were sent to Central Asia. Russia has no legitimate claim to Crimea. They can either accept Crimea is Ukrainian or leave.
Crimean Tatars are currently being abused by the Russian government in Crimea. Cases of torture, arbitrary detentions, and forced disappearances are widespread. Russia is a totalitarian fascist state, and it must be forced out of Crimea.
Colonialism is a classic story around the world. All of the Americas were colonized by Europeans. The thing is that while most countries in the Americas today are democratic and everyone has a vote, Russia is not a democracy. This is the fundamental difference between these two heavily colonized regions. Russia’s republics are truly colonies where the people have no voice. This arrangement is purely exploitative and needs to end.
Regarding Krasnodar Krai… 48% of respondents in the 1926 Census of the region reported as being ethnically Ukrainian. In1939 the number was down to 4%. Either they were forced to falsely identify as Russian, or they were killed. https://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CK%5CR%5CKrasnodarkrai.htm
Stavropol Krai was 35% Ukrainian in 1926 but heavily Russified in the 1930s. https://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CS%5CT%5CStavropolkrai.htm
I cannot find data on the linguistic demographics of Rostov Oblast before the Great Famine.
Belgorod Oblast was part of Ukraine from 1917-1921.
These Oblasts were taken from Ukraine by Russia and Russified.
The remaining federal subjects of Russia on their southern border with Georgia and Azerbaijan are not majority Russian. They should all be independent.
The key question remaining is what to do with Russia. It cannot be acceptable for a state like Russia to remain militarized. That would be unacceptable.
Russia is a mafia state. It is ruled by oligarchs, there is little to no social mobility and the average person lives in poverty. I do not know how to keep Russia pacified if Russia remains as a unified state. It would require constant monitoring by the European Union to ensure they don’t build a military. Given the immense size of Russia I do not believe it is possible to do this.
This leaves only one option which is that Russia needs to be divided in order to prevent them from being a threat to global stability. Every federal administrative area in Russia needs to become independent. Their foreign relations will be managed by the European Union which will manage their necessary democratization.
I agree with Juray Mesik. The world needs to be prepared for Russia’s disintegration. I believe it is not a matter of if, but when. Russia has never seen such a decline in military equipment as it is seeing now. As they run out of weapons their ability to respond to rebellions by Russian peasants will be minimal. If there are protests across Russia to undo the corrupt mafia state there is nothing the oligarchs will be able to do now that they are running out of weapons.
The best thing to do now is to arm Ukraine to the teeth, destroy Russia’s military, and let the state collapse. Ukraine regains all of their territory and Russia will collapse.
The future of Königsberg is simple, turn it into a Freistadt like Danzig was from 1920-1939. Russians will be deported and it will receive immediate EU/Schengen membership under a special arrangement.
Karelia will be returned to Finland, and all occupied historically Ukrainian territories will be returned to Ukraine.
Given how Chukotka is primarily inhabited by ethnic groups closely related to the Inuit, Chukotka could either be an independent republic or join Alaska. It’s up for them to decide.
Time will tell, but I do believe that by the end of the decade we will see monumental change in Russia. Will it be the division of Russia into many different states or the formation of a democratic Russia with all of its current territory? I don’t know for sure, but I do not think Russia will have the same borders it has today in 5 years.