2022 Senate outlook

Yesterday Trump was acquitted for his very obvious crimes in attacking the United States Congress. The impeachment process is over, and we will never need to focus on it again.

Which means there is no excuse to get business done, pass the stimulus and for congress to do everything in their power to end this epidemic which is ravaging our country.

The very obvious list of priorities include:

  • Ending coronavirus
  • Supporting Black Lives Matter‘s objectives
  • Fighting climate change
  • Passing health care legislation to plug the holes in our health care system at a minimum

A majority of Americans support all of these main tenants. They are important goals which will make a real difference in people’s lives, and will help galvanize support for Democrats. After losing impeachment, the Democratic Party needs some really large wins in order to keep voters motivated over the next year. Fortunately for Democrats, mobilizing their base and improving the State of the Union require the same policies.

If Democrats need to destroy the filibuster in order to work on these 4 goals, it will be worth it, because it will galvanize support.

Which leads us to the Senate elections in 2022. There are several important pickups which Democrats can do if they can mobilize voters in a positive matter like they did in 2018.

I believe Democrats can potentially pickup seats Republicans in the following states:

  • Florida
  • Iowa
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

We need to defend Georgia and Arizona with effective mobilizing of course, but this is definitely possible.

My reasoning for each state:

Florida

Florida has been a swing state for a long time. Marco Rubio won 52% of the vote in 2016 and won against former Republican Patrick Murphy. Florida has been hard hit by coronavirus, and if Democrats are able to control the epidemic and get the vote out among people most impacted by coronavirus (which will be easy to find which zip codes are hardest hit) then there is a path to victory. We should run a strong progressive for the seat in Florida. New Democrats are on a 26 year losing streak in the state. Every New Democrat Presidential nominee has lost that state since Clinton won it when I was 3 years old. Let’s not make that mistake again. Unfortunately we have Val Demings who is a New Democrat and Alan Grayson who opposes the independence of the Federal Reserve. I don’t think we will win Florida.

Iowa

Abby Finkenauer has experience winning elections, though she lost in 2020. Neither candidate is ideal, hopefully Abby Finkenauer can squeak out a win. The other candidate has never won an election.

Ohio

Tim Ryan is going to be the candidate. He supports Medicare for All. He has consistently won elections in the 13th congressional district which sometimes votes Republican. I think he can win. I hope he does.

Pennsylvania

John Fetterman has already won a statewide election. Malcolm Kenyatta would be good. Connor Lamb is a New Democrat.

We have to go with John Fetterman on this one. He has proven he can win Pennsylvania. He will win the election.

Wisconsin

Mandela Barnes is going to win. He has already won statewide elections and is the Lieutenant Governor. He is leading in the polls. He has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren and John Fetterman. Mandela Barnes is going to be the next Senator from Wisconsin.

 

I think we are almost certainly going to win in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. We have great candidates who have proven they can win statewide elections. I think there is a chance we can win Ohio as well, which will give us 49 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats, and 2 Dixiecrats who vote with Republicans. That’s enough to abolish the filibuster and pass legislation next year.

 

That is how Democrats can gain control of the Senate this November.

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