Voting Laws and Tipping Points

We are in a really bad situation when it comes to where politics are heading right now. Besides from the COVID recovery, which is currently failing, the current administration has no accomplishments yet beyond the stimulus which passed earlier this year, and no realistic chance of any on the horizon.

A week from tomorrow, the Census Bureau will release final counts for redistricting, that is the end point where the most important sections of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act will have no impact until 2032.

At that point, don’t expect the Republicans to make anyone fail to see that they don’t give a damn about bipartisanship or the well being of Americans. The defeat of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in a week is a major victory for them. Failure to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act before redistricting is complete is by any account a massive failure on the part of the Democratic Party and all of its leadership.

Key swing states like Arizona and Georgia have already passed significant restrictive laws regarding the right to vote.  Senators Kelly and Warnock are both up next year, and they only won by 51% percent of the vote each. The 5 swing states in 2022 are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Arizona and Georgia have passed voter disenfranchisement laws already, but all 5 have no excuse absentee voting. If we lose Arizona and Georgia, we would need to pick up the other three to have 51 votes, which is still not enough to overturn Manchin and Leahy’s support of the filibuster. If President Biden is to be a notable president with more than a brief mention in future history books, we need to keep all 5 seats, otherwise he will be the next Calvin Coolidge.

The failure to pass HR1 will guarantee extreme gerrymandering in almost every state, and if the Republicans pick up only 5 more seats, they will have control of the House of Representatives. If Democrats lose in any one of those 5 swing states, Republicans will have at least 51 seats in the Senate, which gives them near complete control of government.

The delay to pass HR1 and the obvious lack of balls in the current administration and DNC leadership to hold Democratic Senators accountable when they say they oppose HR1 will cost us the Federal government, and many battles in State governments across the country.

For the 2024 presidential election, only three states matter. Republicans need to pick up Arizona and Georgia (which if Democrats don’t give people a reason to stand in line, they probably will ) and one of either Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin all voted for Biden with a margin of under 1% in 2020.

This is why I am going to  be watching the Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania next year. It will not bode well for Biden if Democrats fail to pick up either Senate seat in those two states next year, and if we cannot win those Senate seats, it is unlikely that Biden will retain those states in 2024.

In 2018, Governor Tony Evers won the Governorship of Wisconsin by only 1% of the vote. If Democrats lose the Governorship next year, and cannot pick up the Senate seat in Wisconsin, than that is very good news for the Republican Party, and doomsday level news for President Biden. This will allow the GOP to pass voter discrimination laws in 2023 which will reduce turnout in 2024, and there will be no way for the President to stop them in a world without the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. That will cost Biden the Presidency.

The best thing to do is for President Biden to make sure that over the next year he does everything he can to give voters a reason to turnout to vote in 2022, otherwise I doubt he will get any significant legislation passed. This basically requires him to either make significant executive orders or use the bully pulpit to force Manchin, Sinema, and Leahy to join the Democrats in the abolition of the Filibuster.

If we don’t get significant executive orders and no significant laws beyond the stimulus bills in March out of this administration, and we lose either the Governorship or Senate seat in Wisconsin,  given the voter disenfranchisement laws being passed in key states which matter, we need to be very worried about 2024.

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