How the Republicans can win

There is a clear path for the Republicans to retake government over the last 4 years, which would be devastating to minorities, LGBT people, and women’s rights. Without too much ado, let’s get on with it.

In order for the Republicans to win reelection, President Biden needs to continue to abstain from discussing the filibuster, not do anything by executive order which he promised when he was running for office, and generally govern from the center-right by simply changing as little as possible. With the exception of the stimulus, this is the path we are on right now. His reversal on student loans is not going to be the first time he breaks a promise on a popular position he took in order to get the Presidency. This is in the best interest of the Republican Party. This will demotivate Biden’s core base.

Congress must continue to be deadlocked because of the filibuster. Nothing gets through congress. Most Democrats in Congress will continue to not hold Sinema and Manchin responsible for their actions.

Next year is an absolutely critical election, and the Republicans are going to do better than most people think they will assuming nothing changes from the status quo. Facing a Democratic Party which is unable to do anything even when they have power, and a President who refuses to do anything he has the legal authority to do out of a belief in “Unity”, the Republicans will run with the platform they ran on in 2004. Security to protect your family, protect the family unit, family, family, family. Plus how they are compassionate conservatives who have seen the light.

All the Republicans have to do is keep all of their seats next year with relatively moderate but still anti-abortion candidates, combined with no serious effort from the New Democrats to fulfill any of their long term structural change related promises and the Senate will remain with 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 2 independents, along with Sinema and Manchin who caucus with Democrats but vote with Republicans through their opposition to the filibuster. It is not unlike how Senator Tim Sheldon behaved in Washington State for most of the 2010s.

Right now the Republicans need to do everything they can to stonewall the Democrats to prevent them from making any progress, as they have done for the past 50 years whenever they have had the chance. This will demotivate Democratic leaning voters, reducing their turnout next  year. Republicans nominate anti-abortion candidates in the states where they are retiring who appear reasonable so they can keep those seats. The most difficult seat to keep will be Pennsylvania, where they won’t have an incumbent, and the second hardest seat to keep will be Wisconsin. They must keep both of these seats to keep Sinema and Manchin relevant, which is in their best interest, to prevent the nuclear option for the Filibuster. If they flip Georgia that would obviously be ideal for the Republicans… but that will be difficult because Warnock is an excellent Senator and there is now obviously very strong organizing behind him. The Republicans need to lose fewer than two seats to stay in effective control of the Senate and continue the gridlock we are currently suffering from.

The House map could go either way. It is going to be a far more competitive map because Democrats have the governorships in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This is going to help the Democrats potentially keep the majority in the House, but we can only do this if we motivate voters. Not having to fight against such structurally disproportionate maps is certainly going to give the Democrats a relative advantage compared to the 2018 elections, but simply having more fair maps is not enough to win an election.

In order to do well in an election you need at least three things:

  • A map which isn’t heavily gerrymandered against you
  • Motivated voters
  • A well organized campaign

It’s really not that hard, but I am concerned that unless if we see a reversal by President Biden on a number of broken promises, namely student loans, Democrats won’t have the motivated voters, which will mean that too many Democrats will stay home next year. Republicans are getting barraged with messaging from Faux News that Biden is a radical leftist, so they are most certainly going to be motivated. Democrats need to ensure their base is as motivated to get out and vote next year. Given their cowardice on student loans, and the filibuster, I do not see that happening over the next 18 months.

Republicans have all three.

If we do not change course soon, the 2022 election will go to the Republican Party.

If Republicans win the 2022 elections, Biden will truly be unable to pass any legislation besides the annual budget, and presidents do not become notable for annual budgets.

In 2024 Republicans want a candidate who will both not motivate Democrats to get out and vote, but also right wing enough that more conservative Republicans will turn out. A candidate who has spent the last two years attempting to appear palatable to the average American will do well. If Biden does not do something beyond the bare minimum (which is ending the pandemic), then Democratic voters will not turn out in the numbers we need them to.

Anyone the Republicans nominate will get significant positive press from Faux News which will increase their popularity among the Republican base. The candidate needs to appear moderate enough that he doesn’t inflame the Democratic base, but extreme enough that the zealots in the Republican Party will feel like he has their back.

That man is Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney did lose against Obama in 2012, and that makes sense. Obama was extremely popular, he moved America’s Overton Window to the left on issues like education, LGBT rights, racial relations, and many other issues. He passed the Affordable Care Act, and defended it  to the American people to the point where most Americans support it today. He signed executive orders like the DREAM ACT, and even though congress blocked many of his proposals, those who understand politics understood he did what he could. When it comes to the Student loan crisis, and the severity with which the filibuster has paralyzed our government, the Democratic Party at the federal level is in disarray. It is paralyzed on global warming at every level, unable to decide how to make a difference, wanting the legislation to be everybody’s vision of “perfect” hence failing at every level of government. It fails to keep its members in line when they are elected but will happily give every person as part of their caucus money to keep them in office because they have this belief that no matter how much Joe Manchin, Kirsten Sinema, and Tim Sheldon vote with Republicans, “the Republican is always worse”. Republicans literally removed Liz Cheney from committee seats because she criticized a former Republican President. This weakens the Democratic Party, demotivates the base, and gives the Republicans a real political advantage.

Mitt Romney leading the ticket will talk about how he is going to bring America together against the radical Joe Biden, Faux News will back him up, Joe Biden will have a hard time fighting the image of himself as a radical, and unless if he gives Democrats something to vote FOR, he will lose either the primary or the General election.

Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney because he is a popular and historically notable President.

Joe Biden is not Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney can then bring the Republican Party back to where it was before Trump, and by passing extreme laws without sounding extreme it will force the New Democratic Party to determine how they lost yet again. He will roll back civil rights for LGBT people and continue the 50 year drift of the Republican Party to the right. A religious zealot like Romney who will rile the base against a political coward like Joe Biden who is uninspiring is exactly what the Republican Party needs to win again,

We must prevent President Romney. Biden needs to enact as much of the Democratic Party Platform as he can and start whipping votes to end the filibuster.

I doubt he will.

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