2020 surprised most of the world with how Democratic Activists in Georgia flipped the State so it voted for President Biden. The big prize which is waiting for the Democrats to win now is Texas. It has a Gubernatorial election next year, and I believe the right strategy in the right counties can harness existing demographic swings to make the state a narrow Democratic win next year. The key to victory in all of these counties is to contact voters who vote during Presidential elections but not Gubernatorial elections next year in Democratic Precincts which will immediately turn Texas into a swing state. If the Democratic Party contacts each of these voters 3 times. We need to pay canvassers to do it so that we can guarantee we have enough manpower then Texas will be competitive. If we rely on volunteers we will not have enough labor to get this done.
Trump won the state with a 600,000 vote margin in 2020. Gregg Abbott won with a million vote margin in 2018 against the former Sheriff of Dallas County.
The biggest county in Texas is Harris County. It gave 56% of its votes to Joe Biden last year, and has been steadily increasing every year. Democrats need to aim to get 60% of the vote in Harris County in 2022 and 2024. Democrats got 300,000 more votes in Harris County versus the 2018 midterms.
Democrats won 65% of the vote in Dallas County last year, the largest margin for a Democrat since 1940. This victory needs to be maintained. Democrats got 100,000 more votes in 2020 than the 2018 midterms.
Democrats got 150,000 more votes in 2020 versus 2018 in Bexar County.
Travis County has been consistently swinging more Democratic over the last 20 years. There are also 100,000 Democratic voters who sit out in midterms in Travis County.
Tarrant County has 140,000 Democratic voters who voted for Biden but not in the midterms.
Democrats need to flip Collin County next year and aim to get at least 50% of the vote. Republicans won 51% of the vote, their smallest margin since 1968 when it voted heavily for George Wallace. Demographics don’t favor Democrats a lot here, but we need voters to think of COVID every time they think of the Republican Party. Democrats got 90,000 more votes in Collin County in 2020 versus 2018.
In these 5 counties there are over 900,000 voters who only vote during the midterms. If Democrats put up a strong candidate and mobilize these million voters in Texas there is absolutely no reason why we cannot win the governorship of Texas in 2022.
There is also absolutely no reason why with sustained political organizing we cannot flip both seats in the Senate from Texas. If we keep the momentum up in 2022, and make it so Democratic voters get out to vote against Ted Cruz than we can flip his seat. He only won 50% of the vote in 2018.
John Cornyn won 53% of the vote in 2020, down from 59% of the vote in 2014.
If we mobilize Democratic voters who only vote during Presidential years during the midterms, we can defeat Ted Cruz and take the governorship in 2022, making Texas a purple state.
This will also put it in the running for 2024 significantly reducing the paths to victory for a Republican Presidential candidate.
We might have lost the Impeachment today, but we still can break the trend which has been set. Democrats have the power to destroy the filibuster and pass significant COVID relief for all Americans right now, which will get people out to vote. Combine this with a modern election strategy in the right locations and Texas will be a swing state.
If we do this, then it will be much easier to convince people to donate to the Democratic Party, making it easier to target other states around the country.
Let’s do this.