I’ll get this off my chest… this year’s Senate elections were the biggest electoral disappointment of my life. Massive epidemic, a historic recession, and the Democrats seriously under performed up and down the ballot.
The Senate election odds and polling were both favoring a Democratic win, and that fizzled out completely. https://bookies.com/news/senate-races-odds-tracker
Democrats were expected to pick up Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina (although Iowa’s odds flipped late in the election as it started to become clear the Democrats had very little steam), which brought them from a projected 50/50 majority (along with the Vice Presidency) to a Senate in peril.
The odds for both races in Georgia currently favor the Republicans to keep their 15 year hold on the Senate seats from Georgia.
This year’s election is likely going to be the first time since 1968 where a new President was elected without their party also taking or maintaining control of the Senate.
We must also remember that the last Democratic Senators from Georgia were very conservative as well.
Don’t misunderstand me, I am very grateful for the work Stacey Abrams and so many others are doing in Georgia which has made the state competitive, and everyone who wants to make a difference should do what they can to help the election of two Democrats in Georgia. We would have to defeat two incumbent Republicans to get a Democratic Senate. David Perdue was elected with 52.9% of the vote in 2014.
We must understand the odds currently favor Republicans in every way.
I want people to not be surprised in January when the Republicans will most likely keep control of the Senate. After the massive under performance outside of Georgia, we should avoid getting their hopes too high.
If the most likely outcome happens this year, we need to not lose hope and keep in mind that there are significant pick ups to be made in 2022 in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Those three seats will give the Democrats a narrow majority.
But it is impossible for me to overstate how important it was this year for Democrats to win in both Iowa and Maine, and what a massive loss those two races are for our country.
I do not want this to be misconstrued as understating the amazing work which is being done in Georgia. Stacey Abrams and all of the other activists are an incredible force for good for this country, and they made an incredible difference already. the fact that they made the race against David Perdue competitive, when he won with 7 points more than his opponent 6 years ago is nothing short of incredible. They turned multiple solid Republican races into highly competitive races, almost out of the blue.
But we shouldn’t underestimate the deep cultural forces they are pushing against right now in the heart of the South, and keep in mind that in two years there are going to be several races where we could perform extremely well with the right candidates which will likely give the Democratic Party control of the Senate. That is where I am placing my hopes.