Tara Reade case

Here are some notes about the Tara Reade case which I have pulled together.

I studied game theory in college, so I am extensively using it in this article.

I went back and forth on whether I should publish it, but I believe this is important to give a game theory analysis based on the facts at hand. Game theory can help us know the truth of what really happened.

  • Many progressive leaders do not believe her. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ro Khanna, Pramlia Jayapal, and more have continued to endorse or have since endorsed Biden despite these allegations. They depend on the feminist vote in order to keep their seats and with practically every single progressive politician willing to put their entire careers on the line when they depend on the feminist vote. Every single one of them understands that if proof of Tara Reade’s accusations comes out, their political careers are over. If the members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus believed that she was telling the truth, or even the possibility of it, they would know they would personally lose their next elections if they were to continue to support Biden. If there was any sliver of a doubt in their minds Tara Reade is telling the truth than they would revoke their endorsement. These are politicians who can butt heads with Biden on many issues, and often criticize him for not going as far as they like. They must be extremely confident on this one.
  • Tara Reade claimed there was a Senate report. Biden looked for the report and couldn’t find a copy, and the Secretary of the Senate (who was appointed by the Republicans, which is important) refused to look for him. There are three variables at play, here, whether Tara Reade is telling the truth, whether the report exists (which if she was telling the truth, according to her it does), and whether the Secretary of the Senate will do his job. Also, if the report exists, Tara Reade definitely has a copy, and she could choose to release it. Here is a decision tree of what we are looking at. I’m using the tools I learned when I studied game theory in college. The numbers at the end are scores
    • Tara Reade is telling the truth
      • Report exists
        • Secretary looks for it or Tara Reade releases it. This proves Tara Reade is telling the truth, and Joe Biden will have to drop out. Tara Reade 1, Joe Biden -1
        • Secretary does not look for it and Tara Reade chooses not to release it. This would mean that the Republicans are helping to cover up for Joe Biden. Also, what benefit does Tara Reade have in witholding evidence to convince people of her credibility? This is extremely unlikely. Tara Reade 0, Joe Biden 0
      • Report does not exist
        • Impossible combination, because that would mean Tara Reade was lying when she said the report exists. Tara Reade NA, Joe Biden NA
    • Joe Biden is telling the truth
      • Report exists
        • Impossible combination, because if the report exists, Tara Reade is telling the truth and Joe Biden is lying. Tara Reade NA, Joe Biden NA
      • Report does not exist
        • Secretary looks for it. This will prove Tara Reade was lying about the existence of the report and help Biden win. This is also the scenario if Tara Reade confesses she doesn’t have the report. Tara Reade -1, Joe Biden 1
        • Secretary does not look for it. The secretary refuses to confirm or deny the existence of report, and closure to the case. Tara Reade refuses to confess that she doesn’t have the report. The case will linger. It will continue to impact the Presidential election. Tara Reade 1, Joe Biden -1
  • Where the event supposedly took place was in a busy hallway with no alcoves near the offices of some of the most powerful people on the planet.
  • If Tara Reade made a report she should personally have a copy of it, which she should be able to make a scan of and send to the media. She claims it exists. Where is it? Why is she leaving us hanging assuming she is telling the truth? What does she have to gain? This makes no logical sense.
  • The early nineties was not an era free of sexual assault cases in the national news. Anita Hill spoke out against the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. There is no doubt that she was telling the truth in any reasonable person’s mind. She was consistent, there were numerous other people who worked for Clarence Thomas when he was a judge of the DC Circuit who confirmed her claims.
  • No one else who worked for Joe Biden has come forward. Most sexual predators will have multiple people come forward. This does not disprove her, but it is highly unlikely that he would have made only one in his life.
  • The Senate Office claims that any release of material would violate The Government Employee Rights Act of 1991. There is no such section in that law.
  • When she got an interview in 2019 she said she didn’t consider the acts toward her sexualization. Why would she downright deny what she is now claiming a year before now?
  • If her allegation is true, she is potentially looking at a multi-million dollar settlement. It doesn’t make sense that she would have trouble finding a lawyer. A sexual assault lawyer who is known to donate to Trump’s campaign is bizarre.
  • High-profile sexual assault instances generally come with other reports soon after. It’s been a month and no one else has accused Biden of sexual assault. This is unusual.
  • Other former Biden staffers have trouble believing Tara Reade when interviewed.

This article from Vox details how one female reporter struggled with this story.

But also, what is this?

This behavior is at best fishy. This was just one day after Super Tuesday. If she had come out two days earlier, it could have decimated Joe Biden’s numbers and significantly changed the primary.

This response is was powerful.

If she came out in early March, or even late January with her story, she could have almost completely handed the nomination to Bernie Sanders. But NO, she is tweeting this type of bologna after Bernie Sanders had no chance of winning enough votes. If she truly supported Bernie, why wait until March 25th when he was too far behind in delegates?

This doesn’t make any sense if she is telling the truth.

Or perhaps it is all just coincidence.

Tara Reade telling the truth, report does existJoe Biden telling the truth, report does not exist
Tara Reade confirms report’s existenceR: 1

B: -1

R: -1

B: 1

Tara Reade does not confirm the report’s existenceR: 0

B: 0

R: 1

B: -1

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