Status of the 2020 election as of February 2019

This is proving to be one of the most crowded presidential primaries in a very long time. Only paying attention to governors and Senators (because those are the ones with an actual possibility of winning) we have:

  • Cory Booker
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Kamala Harris
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren

6% of  the Senate, and 12.8% of Democratic caucusing candidates are in the race already. Let’s look at historical perspective of likely winners in previous elections:

  • 2020: 6 candidates with a possibility (6 senators)
  • 2016: 5 candidates with a possibility
  • 2008: 7 candidates with a possibility (6 senators, 1 governor)
  • 2004: 5 candidates (4 senators, 1 governor)
  • 2000: 2 candidates (2 senators)
  • 1992: 6 candidates (4 senators, 2 governors)
  • 1988: 6 candidates (4 senators, 2 governors)
  • 1984: 7 candidates (5 senators, 1 governor, 1 vice president)
  • 1980: 4 candidates (1 senator, 2 governor, 1 president)
  • 1976: 10 candidates (6 senators, 4 governors)

The 1972 primary only included 31 states, making it a fundamentally different system from what we have today.

In terms of the timing, this is about the same time that candidates announced in 2008, the last comparable year for the Democratic Party,so this is a pretty normal round.

Now for candidate policies:
Health care:

Debt Free College:

Wall Street Bailouts:

Rent Control

  • Oppose, support other solutions
    •  Elizabeth Warren
  • Support
    • Kamala Harris
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Kirsten Gillibrand

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