I watched almost the entire Kavanaugh hearing today, and I am convinced that he is lying, and that Dr. Christine Blassey Ford is telling the truth. There is literally no way anyone would go through the hell that Dr. Ford went for, openly calling for an FBI investigation, in front of a Senate committee, knowing full and well that if she is lying she will be incarcerated. Kavanaugh is hoping that the Republican desire to get the first Conservative Supreme Court in a literal century will pave his way to the highest court in the land, just like Clarence Thomas, where he will take away the ability of people to get access to birth control. On top of this, Senator Grassley is having a bad memory for time since the hearings only started on the 4th of September, he claimed that they have been going on for two months.
On top of all of that, his behavior is abhorrent while Dr. Ford’s behavior was dignified. He faked cried his way through a Supreme Court nomination hearing, which was a disgrace to our democracy and an insult to our country. It was very clear that he feels entitled to a seat in the Supreme Court, because his party is in power and he can use it to reduce access to health care, reduce environmental regulations, end net neutrality, whittle away our 4th amendment protections, and reduce access to our legal protections to non-citizens.
Brett Kavanaugh currently has not just one accusation but three coming against him. He has provided no reason to believe him, fake sobbing his way through his hearing like a little baby. If I had gone down the path to get my JD (which is something I have seriously considered multiple times) and my career landed me to be at a Senate hearing to be in the highest court of the land I would treat everyone with the utmost respect, and be as honest as truthful as possible. Judge Kavanaugh was neither. He acted like a child the whole time, lied to Senators, and if there is an FBI investigation, as there needs to be, and is found to have been lying is going to be in so much legal trouble that he will never coach girls volleyball again. This is as creepy as the head of Miss USA being accused of sexual assault by multiple women we know he had contact with. Sexual predators seek out such opportunities to rape children, as Brett Kavanaugh and Donald Trump do. It’s too obvious a coincidence to not point out.
He will have far more to worry about whether he will be able to coach girls going through puberty again if he is found to be lying.
To make it clear, not everyone who coaches child sports is a predator, the coaches I had in soccer were really good people who really taught us and have absolutely no criminal records. But then there is that small subsection of people who spend a lot of time around minors like Brett Kavanaugh and Donald Trump who are absolutely creepy.
This leads us to the political question, what should the Republican party do? They have three choices, none of which look appealing:
- Keep going through with the Kavanaugh appointment, try to get him on the court. Two things can happen in this circumstance:
- If all of the Republicans vote for him, he will be appointed under current rules by a very slim majority, and they will have packed the court. Voters will know that and they will punish the party in November more than we already will. They will be punished severely and have trouble getting Congress and the Presidency in the future.
- If just two Republicans defect, who will most likely be Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, then Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. They will need to select a new nominee and go through the entire procedure again. They have 98 days until the new Congress is inaugurated, and inaugurating a SCOTUS judge in late December does not look good at all. They will need to have everyone on board, or lose their opportunity. If they lose two seats in the Senate this November, the Republican loses its opportunity for an appointment for the foreseeable future.
- Go through with the FBI Investigation, and they find that Kavanaugh is guilty or not.
- If Kavanaugh is guilty he will be arrested, be a convicted felon for both rape and lying to a Senate committee. He will never see the light of day again. It’s the end of October and they don’t have time to thoroughly vet a nominee to the highest court in the land.
- If Kavanaugh is found innocent (which I think is highly unlikely) than his nomination goes through. But, given the logic above, this is almost certainly not going to happen.
- Decide that Kavanaugh is too politically toxic and President Trump appoints his next choice. The appointee is approved in late November or early December, assuming there are no more scandals, and they get their best choice. There is an 80%+ probability voters will have already voted in a Democratic House at this point in time.
The best option for the Republicans is to just dump Kavanaugh, let the FBI go do their investigation on him because he is still on the DC Circuit, and appoint the next choice of Donald Trump. Trump looks really bad for appointing a rapist, and his credibility is reduced to basically nothing. This is at the same time as the Mueller Investigation continues to arrest members of his campaign staff for collusion with the Russian Government, and lying to the FBI. The Mueller Investigation will likely find strong evidence that Trump himself has been involved in this, and given the number of people on his staff who have been found guilty of serious crimes, their is no way Trump had absolutely nothing to do with all of the corruption which has been exposed already. A President undergoing an FBI investigation being found guilty nominating a Supreme Court Justice doesn’t look good for the Republican Party. It is also likely that Mueller will find evidence of Republican members of Congress involved in the ongoing corruption as well. This gives them two choices:
- Defend Trump. They are obstructing justice and everyone but the most ardent Fox News viewer is completely furious at what is happening to our country. They punish them severely at the polls.
- Do nothing. The American people see this is as implicity collusion with Trump, see above. They are brutally punished by voters in 2020 for collusion. Mueller starts investigating key members of Congress for collusion and likely finds evidence.
- Impeach Trump. Trump becomes the first President in American history to be impeached and convicted, he leaves office, is thrown in jail and Mike Pence becomes President. If Mike Pence is found guilty in the Mueller Probe as well, which is most probable than it goes to the Speaker of the House.
- If the impeachment is done before 3 January 2019 the most incompetent little prep school kid to ever sit as Speaker of the House Paul Ryan becomes President. He will be as effective a President as he is Speaker and embarrasses his party. It is highly unlikely that
- If the impeachment is done after 3 January 2019 there is a greater than 80% probability according to Five Thirty Eight right now, than Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female President of the United States of America.
The Kavanaugh pick was one of the most foolish decisions the Republican Party has chosen, and will likely be the final straw. With no fewer than 3 people accusing him of raping them in the past, this is going to significantly hurt their credibility in the eyes of millions of Americans. With the ongoing Special Council Investigation
- EPA v. EME Homer City Generation, L.P. (2014)
This is a lot to take in, here is a brief timeline on how we got here regarding how Kavanaugh got to this point and the ongoing Mueller investigation:
- 7 November 2000: President Al Gore wins the popular vote.
- 12 December 2000: Bush v Gore is decided, ending the Florida Recount, awarding Governor George W. Bush the Presidency.
- 20 January 2000: President George W. Bush takes office.
- 6 June 2003: Brett Kavanaugh became the White House Staff Secretary under President George W. Bush.
- 30 May 2006: Judge Brett Kavanaugh is appointed by President George W. Bush as a Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
- 4 November 2008: Senator Barack Obama is elected President of the United States.
- 6 August 2009: Sonia Sotomayor replaces David Souter on the Supreme Court.
- 6 August 2010: Elena Kagan replaces John Paul Stevens on the Supreme Court.
- 2 November 2010: Republicans win control of the House, first time since 2004.
- 6 November 2012: President Barack Obama is re-elected as President.
- 4 November 2014: Republicans win control of the Senate, first time since 2004.
- 23 March 2015: Ted Cruz declares his candidacy, first Republican to do so.
- 26 June 2015: Donald Trump declares his candidacy
- 1 February 2016: First primary
- 13 February 2016: Antonin Scalia dies, opening the possibility of a solid liberal Supreme Court majority. Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promise to not approve any appointee of President Obama.
- 16 March 2016: President Obama appoints Judge Merrick Garland to fill Justice Scalia’s seat.
- 3 May 2016: Trump becomes Presidential nominee of the Republican Party.
- 8 November 2016: Trump wins the electoral college, Clinton wins the popular vote. The first Republican Trifecta since the 2004 election is formed.
- 3 January 2017: Congress starts its current session, a 52 seat majority in the Senate, and a 241 seat majority in the House. With one Supreme Court vacancy and over 100 Federal court vacancies this is one of the most potentially powerful congresses in history.
- 20 January 2017: Trump is inaugurated as President
- 31 January 2017: Trump nominates Neil Gorsuch to fill Justice Scalia’s seat.
- 7 April 2017: Neil Gorsuch is approved by the Senate.
- 17 May 2017: The Special Counsel Investigation begins
- 5 October 2017: George Papadopolus pleads guilty to false statements.
- 27 October 2017: Rick Gates is found guilty in conspiracy against the United States.
- 1 December 2017: Michael Flynn pled guilty for making false statements.
- February 2018: 13 Russian citizens and 3 Russian entities are indicted by Bob Mueller.
- 2 February 2018: Richard Pinedo pled guilty to identity fraud.
- 16 February 2018: Alex van der Zwann pled guilty to making false statements to the FBI
- 16 February 2018: Numerous Russians and are found to have committed Conspiracy to Defraud the United States.
- 8 June 2018: Konstantin Kilimnik is indicted by Mueller.
- 21 June 2018: Justice Anthony Kennedy announces his retirement, putting SCOTUS at a 4-4 split between liberal and conservative judges.
- 9 July 2018: Brett Kavanaugh is appointed to the Supreme Court, his appointment would be the first solid Conservative Supreme Court in 100 years.
- 13 July 2018: Fancy Bear from GRU are indicted for hacking the Democratic National Committee.
- 31 July 2018: Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement comes into effect.
- August 2018: Manafort was found guilt on eight felony counts by the Special Council Investigation. Flynn pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI. Rick Gates, Alex van der Zwann
- 4 September 2018: Senate Judiciary Committee starts its hearings.
- 14 September 2018: Paul Manafort pled guilty in conspiracy against the United States.
- 16 September 2018: Dr. Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh of raping her in high school.
- 23 September 2018: Deborah Ramirez accused Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct.
- 26 September 2018: Julie Swetnick accused Mark Judge and Kavanaugh of committing gang rape against her.
- 27 September 2018: Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford have a hearing with the Senate Judiciary Committee.
This is only a timeline of the Special Counsel Investigation and how the Supreme Court got to this point. I’ve left out the legislative activity and economic changes which have happened in this time period.
It’s just getting started.